We’re starting to learn a lot about teams through Week 10 of the NFL season. For the Buffalo Bills, that has caused their odds to win Super Bowl LVII to drift.
Bills Blow It
The Buffalo Bills – favourites to win Super Bowl LVII at $3.30 two weeks ago – have lost back-to-back games to now be back with the pack at $4.50.
It’s the fashion in which the Bills lost, or the Minnesota Vikings won, that will be talked about during the week.
This game was the best of the NFL season so far – hands down.
Controversy, comebacks, late lead changes, edge-of-your-seat drives and one of the best catches you’ll ever see. It all came together for the Vikings to win 33-30 in overtime and move to 8-1 for the season. Notably, the Bills are no longer in control of the AFC East at a rather concerning 6-3.
Eric Kendricks' fumble recovery TD to give the Vikings the lead with 0:41 left in the 4th quarter was the first go-ahead, non-offensive TD scored by a trailing team in the last minute of the 4th quarter since 1986, per @EliasSports
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 14, 2022
It’s the close games that are a worry for Buffalo. This one makes it 2-9 in one-score games since the beginning of last season. In games decided by more than one score, they’re 16-1.
Josh Allen is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. That can’t be denied. However, his fumble and interception late into this one along with Buffalo’s dodgy record in close games leaves the door open for the rest of the league. While they should comfortably cruise through and into the playoffs, they will need to navigate close games through to the Super Bowl – an area they are clearly struggling in right now.
Thankfully for the Bills, they will play the Cleveland Browns as $1.24 and -8.5 favourites in Week 10. Meanwhile, the Vikings can further cement themselves as contenders with a win over the Dallas Cowboys as +1.5 and $2 underdogs.
Giants Keep Winning
Giants might be the worst 6-2 team I've ever seen.
— DJ Bien-Aime (@Djbienaime) November 13, 2022
Well, they’re 7-2 now…
The New York Giants just keep winning…
They picked up their seventh of the NFL season in beating the Houston Texans 24-16.
As you might expect against the worst run defence in the league, Saquon Barkley once again impressed for 152 yards and a touchdown among his 35 carries of the football. Those 35 touches are the most of Barkley’s career.
It’s not always pretty, but the Giants keep winning. The odds suggest the Giants will soon be the worst 8-2 team DJ Bien-Aime has ever seen given they will go into their Week 11 matchup with the Detroit Lions as $1.53 and -3.5 favourites.
Brady The Wide Out?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still trying to figure things out. They broke a three-game losing streak by beating the Rams last week but needed to dig deep into their bag of tricks to beat the Seattle Seahawks 21-16 in Munich, Germany.
The Bucs became so desperate that at one stage, Tariq Woolen was able to pick off Leonard Fournette while covering Tom Brady. Yes, he picked off Leonard Fournette while covering Tom Brady…
Still, the Buccaneers’ running game did the job. Averaging an NFL-low 60.7 rushing yards per game, Fournette found 57 yards himself before leaving the field injured. From there, Rachaad White ran a career-high 105 yards as Tampa Bay broke Seattle down on the ground to get back to .500 ahead of their bye.
Pointless Stats of the Week: By winning in Germany, Tom Brady became the first quarterback to start and win a game in three different countries outside the US.
They haven’t always looked like it this season but the odds have always suggested that the San Francisco 49ers are Super Bowl LVII contenders.
Even while losing games and looking decidedly average against opposition they should beat comfortably, the odds to end the NFL season on top have barely moved, if not shortened.
With Nick Bosa's sack in the 2nd quarter, the Bosa family (Nick, Joey & John) now have 100.5 sacks combined (and counting)
They are the 7th family to amass 100+ combined sacks in their careers (since individual sacks were first officially tracked in 1982, minimum 1.0 sack each)
— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) November 14, 2022
This week, the best defence in the league performed at its best to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 22-16. Nick Bosa led the way late as the 49ers held the Chargers to a turnover on downs as Justin Herbert chased the win with only two minutes to play. Elijah Mitchell’s return was also notable. He carried the ball a game-high 18 times as San Francisco started to work out how they will deploy Mitchell, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel at once.
Will George Kittle be the odd man out? He was targeted only twice throughout the match…
NFL Super Bowl LVII Odds
We’re checking in on the changes in the Super Bowl LVII Odds from Week 9 to 10.
The same ten teams remain but the odds have changed after Week 10 of the NFL season.
While the Bills have struggled over the last fortnight, they remain as favourites to win Super Bowl LVII. The Kansas City Chiefs have shortened into $5.50 following their 27-17 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The San Francisco 49ers are still there or thereabouts in terms of contention. However, the Miami Dolphins are making a major play.
Out at $26 after Week 8, their comfortable 39-17 win over the Cleveland Browns now has them into $18 and firmly inside the Top 10 contenders for this season.
Top 10 Odds
|TEAM||WEEK 9 PRICE||WEEK 10 PRICE|
|Kansas City Chiefs||$6.50||$5.50|
|San Francisco 49ers||$11||$9.50|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||$19||$18|