NFL Tips & Preview – Week 10

The weekly preview runs into the endzone with NFL tips for the eight standout fixtures of Week 10, culminating in a couple of pivotal divisional showdowns. 

History: Played 16: Ravens 10 V Dolphins 6

Last meeting: September 8, 2019: Ravens 59 d Dolphins 10 at Hard Rock Stadium

Final Thoughts: Baltimore Ravens head to Florida aiming to consolidate their spot at the top of the AFC North, while struggling Miami Dolphins are searching for back-to-back wins for the first time in 2021.

The 2-7 Dolphins arrested a six-game slide with a 17-9 defeat of the dreadful Texans last week. They got there despite committing five turnovers; Jacoby Brissett – filling in for the injured Tua Tagovailoa – finished the day with 244 yards, 1 TD and 2 INTs.

The Ravens were humbled 41-17 by the Bengals before their Week 8 bye. But they improved to 6-2 with a 34-31 overtime victory over the Vikings last week. The Ravens overturned a 14-point deficit in the third quarter, their relentless offence ultimately winning the day. Lamar Jackson gave up two interceptions but finished on the right side of the ledger with 266 passing yards and 3 TDs, plus 120 rushing yards.

The Ravens have won eight of their last nine against the Dolphins, including the last three straight by margins of 32-plus. Jackson threw for five touchdowns in their most recent meeting, a 59-10 rout in Miami in 2019.

Baltimore’s blistering offence is countered by a patchy defence, but they shouldn’t have much trouble containing Miami. Count on a comfortable W for the visitors.

Tip: Handicap – Ravens -7.5 @ $1.90

History: Played 15: Titans 8 V Saints 6 (1 Tie)

Last meeting: December 22, 2019: Saints 38 d Titans 28 at Nissan Stadium

Final Thoughts: The AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans host a New Orleans Saints outfit striving to stay in touch in the NFC South in what shapes as one of Week 10’s standout clashes.

The 7-2 Titans have won five on the trot, making an emphatic statement with a 28-16 victory over the Rams last week. With offensive spearhead Derrick Henry absent, the Tennessee secondary stood up – including five sacks of Matt Stafford.

After rolling the Seahawks and the Buccaneers in the previous fortnight, the Saints slipped to 5-3 with a two-point loss to the Falcons. Trevor Siemian (249 yds, 2 TDs, 0 INT) was decent in his first match at QB following Jameis Winston’s season-ending injury, but he needs far more help from his receivers.

The teams’ last four clashes have gone the way of the visiting side, most recently a 38-28 victory to the Saints in Nashville in 2019.

New Orleans have thrived as underdogs this season but I’m expecting the Tennessee defence to make life difficult for Siemian here.

Tip: Margin – Titans 1-13 @ $2.59

History: Played 25: Browns 13 V Patriots 12

Last meeting: October 27, 2019: Patriots 27 d Browns 13 at Gillette Stadium

Final Thoughts: New England Patriots have shown real grit to climb back into the AFC East frame with three straight wins. The 5-4 Pats have bookended an upset of the Chargers (27-24) in Week 8 with convincing victories over the Jets (54-13) and Panthers (24-6). The defence forced Sam Darnold into three interceptions, while rookie QB Mac Jones continues to improve.

Meanwhile, the 5-4 Cleveland Browns are coming off their finest win of the season – a 41-16 spanking of the Bengals that defied Baker Mayfield’s shoulder problems (he passed for 218 yds, 2 TDs and 0 INTs) and the Odell Beckham Jr furore. Running back Nick Chubb (137 yds and 2 TDs on 14 carries) was the star of the show.

The Patriots have won seven of their last eight against the Browns, who have not won at New England since 1992.

Belichick’s Patriots deserve respect for the recent turnaround, but I can’t resist the Browns as underdogs after last week’s sensational showing.

Tip: Result – Browns @ $2.04

History: Played 18: Panthers 13 V Cardinals 5

Last meeting: October 4, 2020: Panthers 31 d Cardinals 21 at Bank of America Stadium

Final Thoughts: While a host of heavyweights stumbled in Week 9, the 8-1 Arizona Cardinals reclaimed sole possession of the best record in the NFL and clear top spot in the NFC West with a 31-17 victory over the 49ers. Colt McCoy filled in nicely for injured QB Kyler Murray, while James Conner (96 yds and 2 TDs on 21 carries, plus 77 yards and 1 TD on 5 receptions) had a massive game.

The 4-5 Carolina Panthers are still a mathematical playoffs chance but last week’s 24-6 defeat to the Patriots seemingly consigned their 2021 season to the scrapheap. Sam Darnold had a horror game (172 yds, 0 TDs, 3 INTs) and is now sidelined with a shoulder injury, with PJ Walker set to step into the QB hotseat.

The Panthers have won their last five against the Cardinals – all by double-digit margins. They got off to a fast start in a 31-21 home victory last season. The teams’ last four encounters have all produced 50-plus points.

I’m wary of a double-digit line without Murray, but the Panthers were so poor last week that a landslide Cardinals victory still appears highly likely.

Tip: Handicap – Cardinals -10.5 @ $1.93

History: Played 13: Vikings 7 V Chargers 6

Last meeting: December 15, 2019: Vikings 39 d Chargers 10 at Dignity Health Sports Park

Final Thoughts: The 5-3 LA Chargers sit atop the ultra-close AFC West and will view this home assignment as must-win. The Chargers bounced back from losses to the Ravens and Patriots either side of their Week 7 bye with a 27-24 eclipse of the Eagles last week.

Justin Herbert (32/38, 356 yds, 2 TDs) produced a true gunslinger performance and also ran in a touchdown to steer his team to a crucial win.

The 3-5 Vikings have endured a pair of tough losses to good teams since their Week 7 bye, going down 20-16 to the Cowboys and losing 34-31 to the Ravens in overtime. QB Kirk Cousins ultimately has to shoulder a significant portion of the blame, unable to close out games in which the Vikes got out to handy leads.

With the Chargers heading in as only $1.64 favourites at home, take on the line with confidence in this one.

Tip: Handicap – Chargers -2.5 @ $1.80

History: Played 23: Packers 14 V Seahawks 9

Last meeting: January 12, 2020 (NFC Divisional Playoff Game): Packers 28 d Seahawks 23 at Lambeau Field

Final thoughts: Aaron Rodgers’ COVID-19 protocol snafu immediately proved costly for the 7-2 Green Bay Packers, whose seven-match winning streak came to an end via an ugly 13-7 loss to the Chiefs. Jordan Love underwhelmed in his first start as a pro QB, but he was on a hiding to nothing standing in for the Packers icon.

Seattle Seahawks’ season appeared to slip away courtesy of tough losses to the Rams, Steelers and Saints amid Russell Wilson’s injury absence. But a 31-7 thrashing of the Jaguars before their Week 9 bye ahead of Wilson’s hopeful return for this clash has kept the 3-5 Seahawks in the Wild Card mix.

The Packers have won four of their last five against the Seahawks, including a 28-23 victory in their most recent encounter, the NFC Divisional Playoff two seasons ago. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are on a 10-match losing streak at Lambeau Field, last winning there in 1999.

This match clearly hinges on Rodgers’ and Wilson’s availability. Rodgers is expected to return, which – Wilson or no Wilson – gives the Packers the necessary edge.

Tip: Margin – Packers 1-13 @ $2.50

History: Played 124: Chiefs 68 V Raiders 54 (2 Ties)

Last meeting: November 22, 2020: Chiefs 35 d Raiders 31 at Allegiant Stadium

Final Thoughts: The 5-3 Las Vegas Raiders and 5-4 Kansas City Chiefs square off in a clash that could have massive implications on the AFC West picture.

The Raiders came out of their Week 8 bye sluggish, crashing 23-16 to the also-ran Giants. Crucial turnovers in the second half cruelled the Raiders in a forgettable day for Derek Carr and capped a horror week for the franchise, which released Henry Ruggs III after a fatal DUI crash.

The Chiefs have kept their head above water with tight wins over the Giants (20-17) and Rodgers-less Packers (13-7) in the past fortnight. Neither result could paper over the cracks of a struggling offence, but at least Mahomes and co. are still in the post-season frame. On another positive note, their defence has stepped up to underpin the back-to-back ugly wins – but this role reversal can’t continue.

The Chiefs have won 11 of their last 13 against the Raiders. But the spoils were shared between the division rivals last season, the Raiders grabbing a 40-32 upset in Kansas City and the Chiefs coming from behind for a 35-31 win in Las Vegas.

This feels like a lottery given the Chiefs’ offensive struggles and the Raiders’ multifaceted issues. Expect it to go down to the wire.

Tip: Tri-Bet – Either Team by 7 or Less @ $1.91

History: Played 143: 49ers 73 V Rams 67 (3 Ties)

Last meeting: November 29, 2020: 49ers 23 d Rams 20 at SoFi Stadium

Final Thoughts: It’s an NFC West showdown to close out Week 10 – and the 7-2 LA Rams are looking to bounce back from a convincing loss when they take on the all but out of contention, 3-5 San Francisco 49ers.

The Rams were humbled 28-16 by the Titans last week after winning their previous four games by 9-plus margins. It was a torrid outing for Matt Stafford, who was sacked five times and tossed two interceptions that led to 14 points for the Titans.

The 49ers have rarely looked like a playoffs-capable team in 2021 and were comfortably beaten 31-17 by a Cardinals side missing linchpin Kyler Murray, among others, last week. An overhaul in San Francisco is appearing increasingly necessary.

The 49ers are on a four-game winning streak against the Rams. Last season they prevailed in both all-California encounters, 24-16 at home and 23-20 in Inglewood.

If any more reason to get behind the Rams was needed, the Niners have lost 11 of their last 12 at Levi’s Stadium while the Rams are 4-0 on the road with an average winning margin of 14 points in 2021.

Tip: Handicap – Rams -3.5 @ $1.84