The NBA’s Western Conference is down to four teams as the Timberwolves take on the Nuggets and No.1 seed Thunder host the Mavericks.
Denver Nuggets v Minnesota Timberwolves
The Denver Nuggets are defending NBA champions and were always expected to be here. Even while starting the season slowly by their standards, there wasn’t any concern. Just getting to the playoffs made them a threat. Home court would be a bonus.
Now they’re hosting a Minnesota Timberwolves team that has surprised everybody to be among the genuine championship contenders. “The worst trade ever” is nothing but a distant memory. Basement-level expectations have been grossly exceeded. A team many had missing the playoffs entirely is $11 to win the NBA championship.
No team outside of perhaps the Boston Celtics will go into a series as favourites against the Nuggets. The Timberwolves are constructed well to compete with them, though.
Anthony Edwards has elevated himself to superstar status. Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic remain in the playoffs. Then, there is a collection of players you can argue over to top the second tier of players; Edwards is among them. He averaged 31 points, 8 rebounds and 6.3 assists in the First Round, but it’s on the defensive end he’s impressed most.
Anthony Edwards defense on Jaren Jackson Jr. pic.twitter.com/ZtExHxMWyJ
— Timberwolves Clips (@WolvesClips) February 29, 2024
He’s contributed to the best defence in the NBA alongside Rudy Gobert. The Timberwolves gave up only 109 points per 100 possessions throughout the regular season and can cause Jokic and the Nuggets some problems.
Minnesota has the length to make things difficult inside and out. They play on the ball and are considered the best screen navigators in the league.
Meanwhile, the Nuggets aren’t at their very best offensively right now. While winning the series, the Nuggets trailed for 70% of it against the Lakers.
But Jokic is a wizard. He made his 28.2 points, 16.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists against the Lakers in the first round look easy. Give Jamal Murray a shot late, and he’s going to win it for the Nuggets. However, their 113.4 offensive rating was their lowest in the last five playoff series. The bench isn’t contributing, either.
The Nuggets are sizeable $1.52 and -4.5 favourites to win Game 1 of the series at home. They’re expected to find four wins and advance to the Western Conference Finals by the end of it. But don’t be surprised to see the Timberwolves scare them. This is a team designed to upset the Nuggets and while they’re still finding their feet as a playoff threat, they can make a statement this series by taking the defending NBA champions to seven games.
Best Bet Game 1 - Timberwolves +4.5 @ $1.90*Oklahoma City Thunder v Dallas Mavericks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander v Luka Doncic.
Strap yourselves in.
They’re two of the best five players in the NBA right now. As we established earlier, championship-winning teams typically feature a Top 5 player.
Gilgeous-Alexander is a walking 30-point bucket-getter. His scoring dipped to 27.3 points per game in the first round as his three-point shot failed to fall (29.4%). Still, it’s only a matter of time before he finds it.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander from BEHIND the backboard 😲pic.twitter.com/1xlSvKA2ko
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) April 25, 2024
Meanwhile, Doncic placed himself in the conversation to win the Most Valuable Player award by leading the NBA in scoring with 33.9 points per game, along with 9.2 rebounds and 9.8 assists. His game has only improved following a couple of astute trades at the deadline.
Gilgeous-Alexander and Doncic are the headlines, but the series will likely be defined by those around them, particularly Jalen Williams and Kyrie Irving.
Williams stood out in the first round with 21.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5 assists per game. The Thunder’s roster runs deep, but Williams has established himself as the No.2 behind Gilgeous-Alexander. Irving needs no introduction. He’s behaved himself this season and let his basketball do the talking for 25.6 points, 5 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game. His 40-point outburst against the LA Clippers in Game 3 proved he can still take over a game and win it as the first option if required.
The Thunder finished the NBA’s regular season with the third-best offence in the league. They’ve been consistent of that end of the floor and will take some stopping. The Mavericks defence will come under question heading into the series. Their 115.4 defensive rating ended up a middling 17th. However, Dallas has improved to rank seventh since the all-important trade deadline which changed the fortunes of their season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are the youngest No. 1 seed in NBA history. It’s natural to doubt their ability to hang with top teams in the league deep into the playoffs. Gilgeous-Alexander still has to prove himself as a consistent playoff performer.
The Mavericks, since the trade deadline, are absolutely a top team in the NBA. They’ve improved on both ends of the floor and taken some of the pressure off Doncic, becoming less one-dimensional and more difficult to contain.
With Doncic on fire and the Mavericks boasting more post-season experience, they’re well-positioned to advance by the end of a long series.