With the second NBA Play-in Tournament in the books, we’re here to preview the First Round of an exciting playoff series.
Boston Celtics v Miami Heat
It’s the same old story for the Boston Celtics. They’re $2.37 favourites to win the NBA championship and have been on the first line of betting all season.
The Celtics won 64 games to finish a whopping 14 games ahead of the 2nd-seed Knicks. Their +11.3 scoring margin is the fifth-best in NBA history.
Still, we need to see them do it in the Finals…
This roster is so good and has played so well throughout so many regular seasons that it’s for nothing if they can’t turn it into a long playoff run and championship. The First Round shouldn’t be a problem.
"We want Boston."
The Heat fans are HYPED and ready to face the Celtics 👀https://t.co/M3XueCcqpM
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) April 20, 2024
The Miami Heat beat a hapless Chicago Bulls to advance as the 8th seed, but will do so without Jimmy Butler. He’s expected to miss several weeks with an MCL injury. Miami haven’t played well this season. There was only the hope of Playoff Jimmy turning up to create an upset. Despite their success over the Celtics in recent playoffs series’, without him, this one shouldn’t last long.
Best Bet Game 1 - Miami Heat +13.5 @ $1.90*
New York Knicks v Philadelphia 76ers
This series hinges on one question: Will Joel Embiid be healthy?
History suggests he won’t be. Recent history suggests even if he is out on the court, he won’t be playing at 100%.
The Philadelphia 76ers are a different team with Embiid on the floor. They’re a 66-win pace team with him out there this season. Embiid averaged 34.7 points, 11 rebounds and 5.6 assists per game this season and was a leader in the Most Valuable Player conversation before his injury. While he didn’t look his best in the Play-in Tournament victory, there have been enough positive signs since his return that we can still expect him to dominate for periods.
In contrast, Jalen Brunson is the little man on the New York Knicks side that can define the series. He’s announced himself as a bonafide star this season. Brunson is getting everything he can out of this Knicks – often injured – roster. Should
We can’t read much into New York’s three wins over Philly without Embiid. Instead, we can only look at what is in front of us. With Brunson’s form and home court advantage, in conjunction with the doubts constantly surrounding Embiid’s knee, the Knicks should get the job done in the First Round.
Best Bet Game 1 - Joel Embiid Over 29.5 points @ $1.90*
Milwaukee Bucks v Indiana Pacers
With Giannis Antetokounmpo expected to miss Game 1 of the series, the Milawaukee Bucks are $2.05 outsiders to the Indiana Pacers ($1.78). Antetokounmpo’s absense takes away some of the shine from this series. He was a leading figure in cringe-worthy-but-funny incident involving the game ball following his 64-point performance in November.
The Bucks struggle to keep up without Antetokounmpo. They’re 4-5 without him so far this season. Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez haven’t been able to pick up the slack in a way most will have expected.
In 172 total minutes with Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez on the floor without Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Bucks were outscored by 23.2 points per 100 possessions.
— Jason (@SportsJO13) April 19, 2024
The Pacers enjoyed a 4-1 series win over the Bucks this season, including an extra during the In-season tourament. The Pacers aren’t the excitement machine they were to start the season, but they’re arguably a better one. Indy can score on anybody, but have conceded only 115 points since the All-Star break after giving up 122 points per game before it.
It’s difficult to get a read on the series without knowing Antetokounmpo’s status. With the expectation for the series to go long and for Antetokounmpo to feature at some stage, it might take seven games for the Bucks to win it.
Best Bet Series Correct Score - Bucks 4-3 @ $4.80*
Cleveland Cavaliers v Orlando Magic
The Cleveland Cavaliers at $1.52 favourites to take out their First Round series against the Orlando Magic ($2.60).
It’s a series for the NBA purist.
Both the Cavaliers and Magic rank in the Top 10 in the NBA defensively, and towards the bottom off the league on offence.
Offensive Rating:
Cavaliers – 115.2 (18th)
Magic – 113.4 (22nd)
Defensive Rating:
Cavaliers – 112.7 (6th)
Magic – 111.3(2nd)
The two teams are a combined 35-2 when keeping opponents to under 100 points.
We know both will bring it defensively. Both are prepared to grind out wins and do the tough stuff. Strangely for a series featuring two below-average offensive teams, the series will be decided on the offensive end. If one team can catch fire for two or three games, it’s over.
Best Bet Series Handicap - Magic +1.5 Games @ $1.76*
Oklahoma City Thunder v New Orleans Pelicans
The Oklahoma City Thunder have been the surprise team of the NBA season.
We all expected an improvement, but to finish as the 1st seed in the West far exceeds expectations.
The Thunder has been consistent on both sides of the ball to finish 3rd in offensive rating (119.5) and 4th in defensive rating (112.1). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander spent much of the NBA season as an MVP candidate and is the best 30-bucket player in the league right now.
There was a world where this series could be one of the most exciting in the First Round. However, Zion Williamson’s injury puts an end to that idea. CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, and Trey Murphy will do a job for the Pelicans. If everything goes well, they could pinch a win at home. That might be as far as they get, though.
For all the excitement that built around the Pelicans finish to the season, it left with Williamson’s injury. Instead, the Thunder will be allowed to ease into the playoffs with what should be a comfortable series win.
Best Bet Game 1 - Thunder -8.5 @ $1.90*
Denver Nuggets v Los Angeles Lakers
It wasn’t meant to be this difficult for the Los Angeles Lakers.
The Western Conference is stacked and there is no easy path, but to take the long way to the playoffs only to earn the right to play the defending NBA champion Denver Nuggets isn’t now many of the purple and gold faithful pictured in playing out in October.
We’ve been here an done it before with these two. The Nuggets handled the Lakers relatively comfortably last season, but the Lakers gave themselves a chance in most games. They were’t that far off at times.
Anthony Davis and Nikola Jokic is a mouthwatering battle. Davis should be a bigger part of the Defensive Player of the Year conversation while Jokic is the probable MVP. If either team can contain them, they’ve got LeBron James and Jamal Murray to deal with.
D’Angelo Russell is playing with a chip on his shoulder: “Public humiliation has done nothing but mold me into the killer that you see today.” Jokic averaged a triple-double on Davis last year, so the later is surely coming into this one with a narrowed focus. The extra time off helps and ageing Lakers roster, too.
“For the Lakers to have any chance to beat the Nuggets, they need Anthony Davis to be great. He got his ass kicked by Nikola Jokic… He doesn’t need to outplay [the Joker]. He needs to get up to that level.”
— Jason Timpf 🗣️
(via @TheVolumeSports)pic.twitter.com/jjncVdTdr1
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) April 19, 2024
However, there has been a sense of inevitability around the Nuggets all season. Few are concerned with their fall to the 2nd seed in the West. They rank 5th in the NBA offensively and 8th in defence to be $2.40 favourites to win the West and $3.70 to win the chip. This series will likely play out similar to the last.
Best Bet Series Score - Nuggets 4-1*
Minesotta Timberwolves v Phoenix Suns
The Minesotta Timberwolves have been one of the best teams in the NBA all season thanks to their defence led by Rudy Gobert. But it’s that man and his previous playoffs performances that will be factoring into their $1.99 price to beat the Phoenix Suns in the first round ($1.85).
We know Anthony Edwards will make headlines. Kevin Durant and Devin Booker ensure a level of performance for the Suns. It’s whether or not Gobert can continue to do what he does defensively while offering anything with the ball.
Phoenix finally clicked into gear towards the end of the NBA regular season. They beat the Timberwolves, Nuggets, Cavaliers, Clippers, Pelicans and Kings on their way to a 10-2 record in April. It’s taken a little while, but the Suns finally look like the juggernaut their rosters suggests the could become.
Meanwhile, Karl-Anthony Towns has just returned from injury. It remains to be seen whether he returns rested and ready, or needs time to play himself into shape. He doesn’t have time, though. The Suns are burning hot and are riding a wave of momentum into this series.
It’s a coinflip, as the odds suggests. But the Timberwolves should keep it close throughout.
Best Bet Series Winner - Phoenix Suns @ $1.85*
LA Clippers v Dallas Mavericks
This series looks like it could be a ripper.
Anything is possible with the LA Clippers ($2) and their cast of aging superstars. Surely they can put it together for one series…
Meanwhile, Luka Doncic is one of the best players in the NBA, the Dallas Mavericks ($1.85) are flying and despite behaving himself for the most part recelty, there is always the cloud of uncertainty hanging over Kyrie Irving on and off the court.
The defining factor in this series will be whether or not the Clippers can contain Doncic.
The Clippers give up the 2nd most points per possession in transition defense in the NBA (1.19) pic.twitter.com/BOPb7owSuA
— Mavs Film Room 🐴🎥 (@MavsFilmRoom) April 19, 2024
LA has the superstar power. But unless they all dominate up to their ability in the same game, Doncic can out-play them all on his own. He has a little bit more support around him now, too.
Kawhi Leonard’s injury doesn’t help with either scenario. He’s the most consistent element to the Clippers offence and the most likely to slow down Doncic. He remains questionable, and will do so all series given his history. Where Paul George, James Harden and Russell Westbrook might be able to pick up the slack offensively, none live up to Kawhi on the defensive end.
If Leonard isn’t available early in the series, the Mavricks will start well and should end it within six games.