With the 2025-26 NBA season upon us, it’s time to preview the major markets and win totals in search of value.
NBA Finals Winner
As is often the case, the defending NBA champions start the new season as favourites. Having ended the drought to win their first title since moving to Oklahoma City, the Thunder are $3 favourites to go back-to-back.
The Cleveland Cavaliers dominated the last regular season to score the eighth-most points in NBA history. They led the conference for 165 days. However, their season ended prematurely when falling to the Indiana Pacers 4-1 in the Eastern Conference Finals. Lonzo Ball is an excellent addition, if he can stay healthy, which gives pause to their $7.
So long as Nikola Jokic is on the court, the Denver Nuggets are a threat to the NBA championship. They’ve added depth and shooting through Cam Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown. Jonas Valančiūnas can cover minutes for Jokic, too. Their season is dependent on Jokic, but he’s enough on his own to make their $7.50 worth exploring.
Nikola Jokic is absolutely insane 😳
What in the world. (via @WorldWideWob)pic.twitter.com/L2SePvlnOS
— Legion Hoops (@LegionHoops) October 7, 2025
The New York Knicks, for a lot of reasons, ended as one of the more disappointing teams of the season. As a result, the fired Tom Thibodeau – the most successful coach in franchise history. The expectations remain high, though. The Knicks have cohesion on their side with Jordan Clarkson and Guerschon Yabusele their only notable additions. Cohesion is consistently underrated and a significant factor in considering their $11.
Both Los Angeles teams are on the fifth line of betting at $14.
The Clippers used an 18-3 run to earn the 5th seed and a second straight 50+ win season in 2024-25. But, like so many before, it ended in the first round. Bradley Beal is a risky add while Chris Paul is no certainty to match the output of Patty Mills. Meanwhile, John Collins and Brook Lopez are veterans who fill an already veteran-laden roster. The Lakers added depth of their own through Deandre Ayton, Marcus Smart and Jake LaRavia. While the Lakers are clearly planning for when LeBron James retires, Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves already form an elite back court. It’s a top-heavy roster, but one that will be in the mix through May and June if they’re healthy at the right time.
Luka Doncic:
Year 1 — 21.2 PPG | 7.8 RPG | 6.0 APG
Year 2 — 28.8 PPG | 9.4 RPG | 8.8 APG
Year 3 — 27.7 PPG | 8.0 RPG | 8.6 APG
Year 4 — 28.4 PPG | 9.1 RPG | 8.7 APG
Year 5 — 32.4 PPG | 8.6 RPG | 8.0 APG
Year 6 — 33.9 PPG | 9.3 RPG | 9.8 APG
Year 7 — 28.2 PPG | 8.2 RPG | 7.7 APG pic.twitter.com/Joum1oefpp— StatMuse (@statmuse) October 10, 2025
As two of the younger and more exciting teams in the league, the Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves round out the relatively likely championship contenders at $15.
Houston’s rise has been one of the more impressive but hasn’t translated into playoff success. That hasn’t been a surprise, though. Their youth and inexperience proved too much to overcome at the pointy end. Still, Kevin Durant changes all of that. He ticks all off the boxes the roster couldn’t last season.
Minnesota hasn’t been quite so linear. They sat only three games above .500 in late February before clicking into gear with a 17-4 stretch. Taking that form into series wins over the Lakers and Warriors, only the Thunder could stop the Timberwolves in the end. This group has now felt the heat. Can they handle it for a second-straight season and go at least one better?
NBA Championship Odds: Magic – $17, Warriors – $23, Celtics – $26, 76ers – $31, Mavericks – $34, Pistons – $34, Spurs – $56, Bucks – $61, Pacers – $101
Win Total Analysis
San Antonio Spurs – Over 43.5 wins: The Victor Wembanyama highlights from the NBA preseason are getting out of control. Whether it’s the step-back three’s, catching lobs from points nobody else can, or connecting on a putback, without jumping, off a missed free throw, the assumed improvement from the young Frenchman this season is no longer assumed. We know it’s coming, and the Spurs will win more games as a result. Adding ten wins to last season is aggressive, but Wembenyama has looked that good early on. He does it on the defensive end to be the $1.57 favourite to win DPOY, too.
Defensive Player of the Year: Chet Holmgren – $7, Amen Thompson – $14, Anthony Davis – $14, Dyson Daniels – $17, Evan Mobley – $21, Draymond Green – $21
New York Knicks – Over 52.5 wins: The New York Knicks won 51 games before injuries collapsed their season. They dealt with a coach on the way out and a new superstar coming in to finish sixth in adjusted offensive rating (117.1).
They’ve added more depth, too. A lot of the issues around the now-sacked Tom Thibodeau came around his rotations. He consistently ran players into the ground which hasn’t set them up well to perform late in the season. Mike Brown, however, has Jordan Clarkson, Guershon Yabusele and Malcom Brogdon on the roster to rotate through the likes of Jalen Brunson, OG Annunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart.
Mike Brown with a POWERFUL message following the Knicks first preseason loss.
Tell me we have LEGIT championship aspirations without telling me we have LEGIT championshipship aspirations:
(🎥 @sny_knicks)pic.twitter.com/3qFdrNswUa
— SleeperKnicks (@SleeperKnicks) October 14, 2025
With the Boston Celtics to play without Jayson Tatum and the Indiana Pacers missing Tyrese Haliburton, the East is there for the Knicks to take. The last two Eastern Conference champions are all but out of the race.
Eastern Conference Winner: Cavaliers – $3, Knicks – $4.50, Magic – $6.50, Hawks – $9, Celtics – $10, 76ers – $11, Pistons – $11, Bucks – $15, Pacers – $34
Houston Rockets – Under 52.5 wins: Kevin Durant has landed in Houston, and that is a major reason why we’re learning towards the under. He’s an elite player and one plenty will be excited to see in a Rockets uniform, but he hasn’t driven winning in recent seasons. The 36-year-old has played 62+ games in a season only once since 2018-19 and joins a team that has already lost their starting point guard for the year.
With the spacing issues around Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard unproven, along with a gauntlet of contenders in the Western Conference, Houston rise looks set to level out this season.
Western Conference Winner: Thunder – $2.20, Nuggets – $5.50, Lakers – $9.50, Rockets – $10, Clippers – $10, Timberwolves – $11, Warriors – $14, Mavericks – $19
Handing Out Awards
The Rookie of the Year award is all but locked in with Cooper Flagg a short $1.43 favourite. Drafted No. 1 overall by the Dallas Mavericks, he will slot straight into a significant role that will only grow when Anthony Davis faces his usual period in street clothes.
Ace Bailey has impressed throughout the NBA preseason to be on the second line of betting at $8.25, ahead of Tre Johnson at $9.
Ace Bailey arsenal is so smooth. A lot of young T-Mac and PG vibes here. How did he fall to fifth? 🤦🏽♂️ Rookie of the year otw. pic.twitter.com/ffZmWHrj7x
— Ball Don't Stop (@balldontstop) October 9, 2025
Dylan Harper has the benefit of playing alongside Victor Wembenyama which adds appeal to his $10. Every defence, every night will be focused on the big man, providing the rookie with more time and space than others around the league.
There is value around the Sixth Man of the Year award with Naz Reid all the way out at $9.50 as favourite. He’s won the award before and buys into his role as the leader of the second unit. De’Andre Hunter isn’t far behind at $10 while Josh Hart is often a consideration at $11.
Jordan Clarkson is the value play at $36, though. Another proven winner of the award and brought to New York to provide scoring Mike Brown with scoring ($10 COY), he will have the numbers to make headlines and wins to justify votes.
Coach of the Year: Jamahl Mosley – $7, Quin Snyder – $7.50, JB Bickerstaff – $10, Ime Udoka – $12, Tyronn Lue – $13, Joe Mazzula – $13, Nick Nurse – $13, David Adelman – $17
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