They say a week is a long time in racing. Analysis of the Group 1 Golden Rose to be run next weekend proves that.

Heading into last weekends lead up races at Rosehill, the Golden Rose looked simple. Golden Rose favourite, the Kris Lees trained GRAFF was well supported to win the Run to the Roses, a race that has provided six Golden Rose winners since 2009. The Chris Waller trained THE AUTUMN SUN was an odds on favourite to win the other lead up race on the card, the Stan Fox Stakes. While, the best lead up race for the fillies, the Atlantic Jewel Stakes to be run at Moonee Valley would show punters if there were any outstanding fillies that could arrest the recent male dominance of the Golden Rose.

Fast forward to last Saturday night and punters were left with more questions than answers. Graff had been caught 3 deep the trip in the Run to the Roses and ran a gallant second. The Autumn Sun and his jockey Kerrin McEvoy had sent social media into meltdown after being held up for a majority of the straight, before flashing home for third. A textbook definition of “a certainty beaten”.

The Moonee Valley result was a little more clear cut. THRILLSTER had been given the run of the race by Noel Callow and won in a bunched finish. The closeness of the finish suggested that there were no standout fillies to challenge the boys this year. Based on that, we are happy to put a line through the fillies for another year. Most punters agree, as THRILLSTER ($26 – $41) has drifted in betting this week despite last weekends victory.

 

Where to from here?

Eight of the last 12 Golden Rose winners have been last start winners. Following on from that trend, the most notable price movement was for the Run to the Roses winner, the Chris Waller trained LEAN MEAN MACHINE (pictured) who finished like a shot out of a gun up the rails to defeat the gallant GRAFF. The Waller stable is very confident that there is further improvement in him. GRAFF’S trainer Kris Lees is still very positive about the chances of Graff in The Golden Rose despite his tough run last weekend. A decision is yet to be made on the short term future of  THE AUTUMN SUN. He will run in either the Golden Rose or the Caulfield Guineas prelude in the coming weeks.

 

Where does this leave the punters?

GRAFF was outstanding last weekend and is a deserved Golden Rose favourite. He may not have won the race, but his was definitely the best run in the race. The fillies don’t look like threatening this year and THE AUTUMN SUN is a big query, as he might be heading to the Caulfield Guineas. The Hawkes trained BRUTAL is still nominated and is a short priced favourite to win the Exford Plate at Flemington this Saturday. A strong showing from BRUTAL could see him make the trip to Sydney for the Golden Rose.

Tip

Barring an outstanding performance from BRUTAL at Flemington tomorrow, the Golden Rose will feature the same quinella as  last week’s Run to the Roses. GRAFF with any luck in running will turn the tables on LEAN MEAN MACHINE who will no doubt be finishing strongly.

Market Moves

Graff $5 ➡️ $4.2

The Autumn Sun $8 ➡️ $6.5

Lean Mean Machine $26 ➡️ $7

Brutal   $14 ➡️ $11

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