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Finding Your Magic Millions 2YO Winner

By Ric Chapman

The race was originally a one-off when inaugurated back in 1987.

Can you recall the first winner? Well, it was Snippets who became a champion sire also.

The race was created to coincide with the Magic Millions yearling sales from the previous year. But, the initial success was so spectacularly well received that MM decided to expand not just the 2YO Classic, but the entire day itself.

To the point where, on Saturday at the Aquis Gold Coast racetrack in Queensland, one of the world’s richest race days will unfold. The collective prizemoney for the day is $13.5 million – way, way eclipsing Melbourne Cup day and second only to The Everest day in Sydney.

But, the 2YO Classic has always been the main affair so let’s get to it.

There are a few hard and fast rules to finding winners of certain races and the Gold Coast’s $3million 2YO Classic is no exception.

So, let’s start with the very, very best one.

Statistically speaking it is off the charts and I suspect it will come into play again this year.

Ok, 27 of the last 32 runnings of the race have been won by babies who had won their previous start.

That’s staggering and if the trend continues this year that means we narrow the pursuit of winning on the punt this year down to just seven runners! Straight away, nine of them have been eliminated.

Those horses still in the frame are: Storm Boy; Spywire, Parkour, Highness, Wolfgang, Arabian Summer and Jenni’s Meadow.

Now, all are smart. So we need to add in the next potent variable.

Multiple wins.

That extracts Parkour, Jenni’s Meadow and Highness from the mix.

Barriers are of concern and this category is our next examined.

The stats don’t tell us much though. Four of the last 10 runnings have been won by horses drawn outside of gate 10. That leaves six drawn inside. Significantly though, gate 2 is by far the best and so that brings Wolfgang back into the picture. Gate 3 is very popular too and if the emergency is scratched that means Highness comes back into the fray.

Sadly, if you are keen on Poster Girl and Jenni’s Meadow, history isn’t your friend. Again, assuming the emergency is scratched, that pair exit from gates 4 and 5 and the race has never been kind to horses from those marbles.

Too much hustle and bustle early and they get squeezed up.

So, we still have the favourite Storm Boy (10), Spywire (12), and Arabian Summer (9) the most favoured. If we add Highness and Wolfgang back into the mix, these appear to be your first five home.

Oh, but wait there’s more.

The sex equation may not look as relevant at first in finding the winner, but if you dig further into the stats, it actually is.

Overall it is 21 to 19 in favour of the boys, however, a notable trend has been slowly maturing over the past six years that MUST be considered.

Six of the last seven runnings have been won by fillies. The only male winner in that time was Shaquero at $25, and he beat the filly She’s All Class into a placing.

In the past few years nearly all the placings have been filled by fillies – last year for instance, the first three home were fillies, Skirt The Law, Platinum Jubilee and Summer Loving.

The year before that the super mare Coolangatta won and the placings were fillies also, Russian Conquest and Snitcat.

This all means that fillies are dominating the race now.

So, if we stay on trend a filly will win this year.

Those then who are eliminated from our list are all the boys: leaving just ARABIAN SUMMER as the one most likely to win. She will jump from gate 8 (if the reserve is scratched), get a perfect run in behind what will be a hot speed as it always is, and she will pounce at the 200m, claim the lead and go on to win from Highness who will rattle home and Storm Boy, the early leader, hanging tough for 3rd.

Arabian Summer has Gr 1 level finishing speed and can get down to 33.33sec the last 600m, which she has proven in both her last two wins. Very few of her rivals can run home that fast.

Currently, she is a $6.60 chance. She is trained by South Australia’s dynamic team of Tony and son Calvin McEvoy and Harry Coffee, who won on her just last weekend at the track, will ride her.

Good luck everyone.

Best Bet ARABIAN SUMMER - $6.60


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