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- Pakenham - Race 8
- (1400m)
- December 21, 2024
1. Arkansaw Kid (6)
Likes it wet, actually looks the winner if track is damp. If not, he may struggle late. On pace in the mud last start when just nabbed by rival again Welwal in 1400m Gr 3 last start. Beaten by 8 lengths by Nadal start prior on a fast track. Watch the weather.
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Good on Soft
2. Munhamek (11)
Resumes here but does show up while fresh. Can really finish hard on his day. Getting on a bit now that he’s a 9-year-old but can run with these. Watch market.
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Likes Dry Track
3. Here To Shock (8)
Has a great chance. Set too big a task last start when 10th of 20 to Gringotts in the $3million Big Dance over a mile. Freshened for this and is much better suited this trip. Probably goes forward and sits 3rd behind Buffalo River then unleash late. Big show.
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Ready to Fire
4. Buffalo River (13)
Only chance is to go hard from gate rise and lead at a cracking pace. Likes the sting out of the ground. The past couple of runs have been handy on pace running 4th similar grade both times, but still only led and didn’t do it hard from get-go. Is fit and is a knock out hope.
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Good on Soft
5. Just Folk (3)
Tough, honest and consistent galloper who is well up to this. Resumes here though and is now a rising 9-year-old so may not go as quick as years gone by. Saying that, he’s drawn perfectly. Place show. Does love it wet.
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Good on Soft
6. Nadal (12)
In a field of geriatrics, this young gun stands out. Will sit back and run right over them all late. Did that last start over 1200m. Yet to win this trip but races as if it will suit a great deal and is bred to get it. Just looks the winner given there will be a lot of pace midrace.
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Proven Winner
7. Welwal (2)
Change of stables and immediate 100% result when at $21 he sat well off speed when resuming last start and flashed home to just nab Arkansaw Kid in the mud over 1400m last start. Has handy 2nd up stats too. Sure to dash hard late again. Loves it damp.
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Good on Soft
8. Tuvalu (9)
Very smart and capable of winning this on his day. Is 3rd up here. Was heavily backed and was there to win last start but only plodded last 100m when beaten 3 lengths by Welwal this trip in Gr 3. Fitter now and should be very hard to beat.
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Ready to Fire
9. Chorlton Lane (1)
Went to Canberra last start and over this trip under 59kjg ran a super fast time to easily beat a weaker field. Is consistent and can run so must be considered.
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Proven Winner
10. Pascero (14)
Poorly drawn and wouldn’t win this with a headstart.
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Likes Dry Track
11. Robrick (4)
Can run at this level but needs things to go his way. Like, he needs to settle at the tail then come with a powerful burst. Ridden too close to the lead this grade last start when fading 7th to Nadal. Place show if ridden quietly.
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Place Performer
12. Roots (10)
Classy mare on her day but her recent form is average. Saying that, did impressively win a trial 2 weeks back. Is up to this on her day. Last start was on speed when fading 5th to Running By over a mile. Not overly keen.
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Good on Soft
13. Windstorm (5)
Has talent but twice carried 6.5kg less than Munhamek in races this year and both times finished behind him. So, given he is only getting 1.5kg from him this time, it does look a forlorn hope. And Munhamek may not even be the best hope in the race.
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Good on Soft
14. Roll On High (7)
Good mare on her day but recently has been finishing just behind the placegetters. At her best can run a place but until she shows top form I’m not keen.
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Likes Dry Track
First 4
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* PB rating based on form analysts’ opinion.