The Supernova Preview

Our form man Ric Chapman has dissected the Supernova at Pakenham this weekend. And he finds the top 4 across the line.

1. Arkansaw Kid (6)

J: Blake Shinn T: Team ayesH

Likes it wet, actually looks the winner if track is damp. If not, he may struggle late. On pace in the mud last start when just nabbed by rival again Welwal in 1400m Gr 3 last start. Beaten by 8 lengths by Nadal start prior on a fast track. Watch the weather.

PB Rating 8.2
Last 5 12002
Win $9.00 Place $2.80
  • Good on Soft

2. Munhamek (11)

J: Billy Egan T: Nick Ryan

Resumes here but does show up while fresh. Can really finish hard on his day. Getting on a bit now that he’s a 9-year-old but can run with these. Watch market.

PB Rating 8.4
Last 5 6450x
Win $26.00 Place $6.00
  • Likes Dry Track

3. Here To Shock (8)

J: Daniel Stackhouse T: Team Hayes

Has a great chance. Set too big a task last start when 10th of 20 to Gringotts in the $3million Big Dance over a mile. Freshened for this and is much better suited this trip. Probably goes forward and sits 3rd behind Buffalo River then unleash late. Big show.

PB Rating 9
Last 5 02110
Win $7.00 Place $2.35
  • Ready to Fire

4. Buffalo River (13)

J: Celine Gaudray (A) T: Michael Moroney & Glen Thompson

Only chance is to go hard from gate rise and lead at a cracking pace. Likes the sting out of the ground. The past couple of runs have been handy on pace running 4th similar grade both times, but still only led and didn’t do it hard from get-go. Is fit and is a knock out hope.

PB Rating 8.3
Last 5 02944
Win $41.00 Place $9.50
  • Good on Soft

5. Just Folk (3)

J: Jamie Mott T: Gavin Bedggood

Tough, honest and consistent galloper who is well up to this. Resumes here though and is now a rising 9-year-old so may not go as quick as years gone by. Saying that, he’s drawn perfectly. Place show. Does love it wet.

PB Rating 8.3
Last 5 3121x
Win $19.00 Place $4.80
  • Good on Soft

6. Nadal (12)

J: Ethan Brown T: Ciaron Maher

In a field of geriatrics, this young gun stands out. Will sit back and run right over them all late. Did that last start over 1200m. Yet to win this trip but races as if it will suit a great deal and is bred to get it. Just looks the winner given there will be a lot of pace midrace.

PB Rating 9.5
Last 5 x4141
Win $2.60 Place $1.35
  • Proven Winner

7. Welwal (2)

J: Luke Currie T: Mick Price and Michael Kent

Change of stables and immediate 100% result when at $21 he sat well off speed when resuming last start and flashed home to just nab Arkansaw Kid in the mud over 1400m last start. Has handy 2nd up stats too. Sure to dash hard late again. Loves it damp.

PB Rating 9.1
Last 5 335x1
Win $9.00 Place $2.80
  • Good on Soft

8. Tuvalu (9)

J: Fred Kersley T: Lindsey Smith

Very smart and capable of winning this on his day. Is 3rd up here. Was heavily backed and was there to win last start but only plodded last 100m when beaten 3 lengths by Welwal this trip in Gr 3. Fitter now and should be very hard to beat.

PB Rating 8.7
Last 5 x1x55
Win $8.00 Place $2.50
  • Ready to Fire

9. Chorlton Lane (1)

J: Saffron Osborne T: Ciaron Maher

Went to Canberra last start and over this trip under 59kjg ran a super fast time to easily beat a weaker field. Is consistent and can run so must be considered.

PB Rating 8
Last 5 36331
Win $13.00 Place $3.60
  • Proven Winner

10. Pascero (14)

J: Daniel Moor T: Trent Busuttin & Nat Young

Poorly drawn and wouldn’t win this with a headstart.

PB Rating 6
Last 5 x06x0
Win $151.00 Place $31.00
  • Likes Dry Track

11. Robrick (4)

J: Craig Williams T: Mick Price & Michael Kent

Can run at this level but needs things to go his way. Like, he needs to settle at the tail then come with a powerful burst. Ridden too close to the lead this grade last start when fading 7th to Nadal. Place show if ridden quietly.

PB Rating 8.3
Last 5 0x327
Win $15.00 Place $3.90
  • Place Performer

12. Roots (10)

J: Jordan Childs T: Chris Waller

Classy mare on her day but her recent form is average. Saying that, did impressively win a trial 2 weeks back. Is up to this on her day. Last start was on speed when fading 5th to Running By over a mile. Not overly keen.

PB Rating 7.1
Last 5 72805
Win $21.00 Place $5.50
  • Good on Soft

13. Windstorm (5)

J: Beau Mertens T: Gavin Bedggood

Has talent but twice carried 6.5kg less than Munhamek in races this year and both times finished behind him. So, given he is only getting 1.5kg from him this time, it does look a forlorn hope. And Munhamek may not even be the best hope in the race.

PB Rating 6
Last 5 7268x
Win $41.00 Place $9.50
  • Good on Soft

14. Roll On High (7)

J: Linda Meech T: Peter Moody & Kat Coleman

Good mare on her day but recently has been finishing just behind the placegetters. At her best can run a place but until she shows top form I’m not keen.

PB Rating 6.7
Last 5 5x607
Win $31.00 Place $7.50
  • Likes Dry Track

First 4

1. Nadal, 2. Here To Shock, 3. Welwal, 4. Tuvalu

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* PB rating based on form analysts’ opinion.