Form student, SCOTT MCDONELL, previews Day One of the Warrnambool Carnival, with horse racing tips and analysis for all 10 races on the card. Good luck, punters!
Track Condition: Soft 7
Rail Position: True
The May carnival starts with a capacity maiden field of jumpers and it is not easy. HE’S ALL WHITE did everything right winning a Cranbourne hurdle trial then was placed on the flat at Kyneton last start. Rock hard fit and in a stable stepped in jumping history.
FIELD OF LIGHTS won three in a row on the flat then just battled on the heavy here last start. Two solid hurdle trials leading into this suggest he will run well over the obstacles.
DEWRINKLER comes off nice hurdle trial win around this circuit. Pateman takes the ride and that is always a good guide to jumps racing in Australia and would not dismiss.
ONCE WERE LOST chased home well enough when placed in hurdle trial around Warrnambool. Showed a natural liking for the jumping caper and must respect.
Tip: HE’S ALL WHITE
JUST YOU was beaten less than 2 lengths on the flat at Echuca last start then he won hurdle trial around this track on heavy ground recently. Looks a natural jumper and will have something each way.
PUEBLO was placed in recent Cranbourne hurdle trial then he has followed that with a couple of excellent flat placings. Should be fit for this.
NOTHIN’ LEICA HIGH has had the advantage of having a hurdle start leading into this and he was not disgraced when ran on into minor placing. Race fitness could be crucial in this so cannot dismiss.
HOLBURT is another who has had a hurdle start this prep and after racing on the speed he stuck on and held minor spot. Drawn ideally and will be in this for a long way.
Tip: JUST YOU
MAWAANY MACHINE comes into this off a Flemington placing on the flat last start. He has been solid in a couple of hurdle trials and he is the one to beat.
GRAVISTAS won a recent hurdle trial around this track with dominance. Patrick Payne puts the polish on this gelding and he is sure to be a major threat.
EDGAR ALLAN was placed in recent hurdle trial around this circuit and from successful stable with jumpers would not leave out of multiples.
JIMMY’S SECRET has won both his Cranbourne hurdle trials with authority. Been racing well enough on the flat and would not be surprised to see him in first four.
Tip: MAWAANY MACHINE
BUBBLY LASS had no luck first-up at Pakenham but still ran in and filled a placing. She has drawn to get the run of the race and with that run under her girth can get away with this.
PROSECUTOR resumes from spell. He raced in consistent form last campaign without winning. Drawn to get the perfect run and can run into a placing.
GEN WINE resumes from spell. He was placed on debut at Kyneton before a couple of average runs. May find his best when fresh.
DOWN THE BARREL did not show much in two starts at first prep. Looking for big improvement this time in and would not leave out of first four chances.
Tip: BUBBLY LASS
NEW YORK BABY is $75K daughter of Written Tycoon who has been impressive in her jumpouts and with Olly aboard she will be well supported.
ZARINA BAY has been placed in a few of her jumpouts and from inside barrier she should get all the favours. In astute stable and cannot be left out of chances.
Must always respect debutants trained on this track during the carnival and RIOYUKI fits the bill. Dean Yendall takes the mount and she can win this.
CARDIGAN QUEEN was making good late at Bendigo on debut and raced into second spot. Better from the race experience and drawn to get all the favours.
Tip: NEW YORK BABY
FLYING AGENT won with something in hand at Hamilton last start then has split Gold Medals and Zed Em in recent Steeple trial. He will be rock hard fit for this and looks hard to beat.
LUCQUES deserves a win over the bigger obstacles. Placings in his last four Steeplechase attempts and again expect him to figure in finish.
POLICE CAMP did everything right in his trial leading into this winning by a big margin. Trained on the track and that is always an advantage around this unique circuit.
MR COYNE ran a slashing race when placed over the hurdles at Oakbank over Easter before leading and fading over the Steeples last start. Look for him to lad these for a long way.
Tip: FLYING AGENT
SAVVY LAD is racing in super form having won his last couple with authority. Versatile gelding who can sit up on the speed or make midfield and still win. He looks nice each way value.
HEART OF PUISSANCE was dominant at Warwick Farm two starts back then was closing late when beaten a length in the Terang Cup last start. That form strong enough for this.
UPSWING finished too well for last stride win two back then just missed behind Savvy Lad at Cranbourne. If he can hold that form will be right in the mix.
MINOLA won this track two starts back on the heavy ground then placed at Ballarat. If the rain comes and track rain affected she is a huge hope.
Tip: SAVVY LAD
Really tough race but going to have something each way at the big odds on GUIZOT. Meets the criteria of being trained on the track and although he has not won recently in town he has not been beaten all that far. Cannot resist the odds.
CHANTREA had no luck first-up in Victoria when beaten less than a length at Bendigo. Sure to be better from that run and she is a Listed winner back in West Australia and class will take her a long way in this.
TAVIRUN comes into this third-up from spell. Run was better than his finishing position suggest at Caulfield last start and although he has a horror gate cannot leave out of place chances.
BEFORD could be the knockout first-up from spell. Given easy time in recent Cranbourne trial to get ready for this and a must for first four players.
CONDO’S EXPRESS resumes. Class runner who can be little hard to catch but he has been competitive in Listed company in the past and if he can find best form can figure.
LUCABELLE resumes. Has a fresh win on his resume’ and did not mind the way he raced last time in work. She looks a nice each way prospect.
REALEZA fought the race out bravely to win at Geelong first-up. Finds a harder task but he looks a progressive gelding and can measure up to these.
SACRED PALACE is the big query having his first start since crossing the Tasman. Showed enough in his three New Zealand runs and Lindsay Smith/Damien Oliver combination is hard to ignore.
VANCITY GEM looks nice each way odds to finish the day in a tough race. She won her maiden with something in hand on debut and may find best form when fresh.
DINGA chased home hard when placed at Cranbourne first-up from spell. Sure to be better from that outing and although drawn wide happy to put her in the mix.
CATARACTA is another who comes into this fresh. Her first-up record (5:2-1-1) is super and although drawn out in the car park she goes into place chances.