Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s richest race on turf The Everest at Randwick with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps and assesses the race. Good luck, punters!
T: Chris Waller/ J: James McDonald (58.5kg)
We all know how good he is when he is at his best. He wins this by 3 lengths. And if the rains come, which they say they might, he is a dab hand on wet ground. His trainer and jock keep telling us that he’s absolutely flying and at his best. BUT….both his runs this time up have only been useful trials for this at best. And last start when he faded badly late for 4th to Libertini and Classique Legend when at the same weight scale as they are in this, would say he’s not going well enough. I really think his best hope is if it’s wet. Has drawn to either lead or sit just behind Dollar For Dollar.
T: James Cummings / J: Josh Parr (58.5kg)
Deserves to be highly fancied. Has a major weapon in his kit bag that being he can run on powerfully late and he loves this track. Ran 3rd in this race last year and wins it in 15m more. Just needs to get his finishing timing right. Resumed from a spell over 1000m in Gr 1 grade and was brilliant late flashing home to just fail. Is one of only a very few who has broken 1.08 for this trip. Respect him.
T: Led Bridge / J: Kerrin McEvoy (58.5kg)
There is a sense of timing around him. The big grey horse everyone just loves and hasn’t he got talent. Resumed from a spell and won the Gr 2 Shorts over 1100m here in astonishing fashion. Looked no chance at the 250m when held up behind runners but sprouted wings late. Then last start roared to the front with 100m to go and looked the winner until Libertini ran him down. Is 3rd up now, on home track and has twice broken 1.08 on this track. Big show.
T: Team Freedman / J: Sam Clipperton (58.5kg)
Extremely competitive on his day and if it’s wet he is very hard to hold out. Has broken 1.08 this trip and he was runner-up in this race last year. Loves this track. But his recent form hasn’t been good enough. Is he past his best? Last start when resuming in Melbourne, Dollar For Dollar who is 100/1 here beat him home. So, maybe look past him.
T: David Jolly / J: Nash Rawiller (58.5kg)
This is the dark horse. He’s from South Australia and he has improved enormously over the past three months. Last campaign he was competitive with Gytrash and Trekking but since resuming this time up he seems to be better. Has won three from three since resuming, two of them at Gr 1 level and last start he stormed past Dollar For Dollar carrying 3.5kg more after being held up at the top of the straight. This bloke will love a fast pace and he will be dashing home late. Will be on the fence and getting out is his biggest worry.
T: James Cummings / J: Glen Boss (58.5kg)
Here is an interesting proposition. When Glen Boss last rode this bloke, he raced on pace and easily won the Gr 1 Newmarket thrashing Gytrash. But hasn’t won a race in four starts since. And Boss hasn’t been on him. The jock reunites with him for this. And his first-up 3rd, when carrying more weight than Classique Legend and Eduardo in The Shorts after racing wide, was a brilliant run. Likes it wet and as importantly, he loves racing 2nd up.
T: Gordon Richards / J: Jason Collett (58.5kg)
Is going to take sooo much holding out. He is such a trier and has raced 20 times, winning 9 and placing 10 times. Importantly, he is a Gr 1 winner and he has beaten Nature Strip twice thus far. Last start when he ran him down was a phenomenal run. He was resuming over 1000m at this track, carried 60kg, and ran an astonishing last 600m in 32:89sec to beat him. Looks a massive threat.
T: Joe Pride / J: Rachel King (58.5kg)
Good sprinter who has roared into contention with three outstanding runs this time up. They have coincided with him changing trainers too. Joe Pride has him now and Joe is a master trainer of sprinters. He loves the string out of the ground and if it is really wet make sure he’s in your numbers. Beat subsequent Group winner Flit easily this trip in the mud two runs back then last start finished between superstars Classique Legend and Bivouac in The Shorts over 1100m. Will run boldly.
T: Team McEvoy / J: Tim Clark (58.5kg)
Is a very good on pace runner and both his past two runs have been excellent efforts. Ran just over 1.08 last start when beaten a nose in the Gr 2 Gilgai this trip. Will be a rank outsider but he will make the pace genuine from this beautiful inside gate and has won 8 races. Sluggers hope.
T: Michael Moroney / J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg)
Good sprinting mare who did win a Gr 1 at this track in April running a brilliant time for 1400m. Likes to settle off the pace but has been beaten in two easier races since resuming. Was over a length behind Dollar For Dollar last start. Not keen.
T: Anthony Cummings / J: Regan Bayliss (56.5kg)
Goes really well at this track and goes extremely well at this trip. And last start, wow, what do we make of it? She sat off the speed and just mowed Classique Legend down this journey running an amazing 1.07.60 and beating him pointlessly – running a stunning last 400m. If she repeats that run, she nearly wins this.
T: Chris Waller / J: Brenton Avdulla (56.5kg)
Good solid sprinting mare who is a 2 x Gr 2 winner this trip. Looked great winning the Gr 2 Sheraco this trip when resuming two runs back. Likes to be on pace and there are just too many strong finishers for her. This may be a bridge too far.
13. DEPRIVE () 714x5465x3
T: James Cummings / J: – (58.5kg)
Good sprinter but if he gains a run he’ll be a $91 chance. Beaten 4 lengths by Libertini last start and not likely to overturn that form here.
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T: Kris Lees / J: – (58.5kg)
Very tough sprinter with speed but isn’t a Gr 1 speedster and most of these are.
T: Kris Lees / J: – (58.5kg)
Is 3rd up here but not racing well enough. At his best, he could sneak a place.
T: Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou / J: – (58.5kg)
Almost certainly won’t get a run and although backed at both his runs this time up, he’s failed to run a place. No.