Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, previews Saturday’s Royal Randwick meeting, with horse racing tips and analysis for all 10 races. Good luck, punters!
Track Condition: Good 4
Rail Position: True
KALASHNIKOV wasn’t given much of a chance to showcase his real talents on debut in the Breeders’ Plate as he travelled wide all the way. It was actually a commendable run to finish 5th. That experience, a better barrier and this being slightly easier suggests he, on his home track here, looks the main player.
HODGSON is unraced but did trial like a pretty smart one and may be worth a flutter. SHE’S ALL CLASS won a trial showing great speed. Is green but talented.
EMERALD BAY is a very speedy filly from Tulloch Lodge. Well-bred too and she easily won a barrier trial recently. Drawn deep so will have to work hard but may be pretty smart.
What a wide-open Highway. LADY DEMI resumes from a spell here but has shown in the past that she can motor late. Gets a 2kg claim here and has drawn very nicely.
EMILETTE has lightning in her veins. She will come out humming and be in front for a very long way. Strolled in last start over 900m in the bush., Greg Ryan on top and he rarely comes to town. When he does they fire up.
MR MOPPETT is only a 3YO but is very smart. Won the Silver Apple at Orange which is always a tough race to win and produces smart ones. And he has recorded solid back to back wins in the bush since resuming. Unlike many here, doesn’t have to lead to win.
The handicaps here make this a fascinating betting race. LOOKS LIKE ELVIS was very strong late in the Gr 1 Epsom when 5th in fast time. On that run he wins this but he has gone up in weight.
JUST THINKIN’ is here on his home track coming back in trip and he could very easily just go to the front and lead these a merry dance the whole way. Big chance.
PURPLE SECTOR ran a bottler when resuming. Been gelded now and may have turned the corner. Home track also.
Tip: JUST THINKIN’
Interesting race. Not sure if FORBIDDEN LOVE can give 5 or 6 kilos to some of these emerging stars but she is the best credentialled. Past three runs have all been excellent and if she gets cover she has the talent to beat them all.
JOVIALITY is all class and speaking of class after winning three in a row she was sent to the top grade and made ground to run 5th last start. This is easier.
ELIZABEEL is stepping up a fair way in grade here having won past two at the provincials. But she won them well and has always shown top ability so deserves a crack at this.
Good race. From top to bottom.
Last year’s winner HANDLE THE TRUTH has had just one start this time up when 6th but was crawling all over their backs late and should nearly have won it. Last year he thundered down the centre of the track when clear and it looks like he is going just as well. Must be in your numbers.
MAN OF PEACE is a dab hand at this track and is the winner of his past three starts, and four of his past six runs. He resumes here and has an awkward draw but has the pace to dash across and be very handy. Yet to win first-up but is racing in career-best form.
Stablemates IT’S ME and FENDER are extremely smart too. Fender led up a strong stakes grade field last start wilting to just miss a place over the final 100m. And is drawn perfectly here while It’s Me could be anything. Her final 600m sectionals in all her three from three wins have defied logic. Midweek health scare but if she runs she goes very close.
Pretty average field when you consider how much it is worth. DEPRIVE looks the best horse and if the pace is on he should be flashing home. Ran home gamely for a great 3rd first up in a similar race.
His only real danger is the last local speedster STANDOUT. He is 3rd up after being well-backed in both his unplaced runs this time up. Connections wanted him to run in The Everest so he must be going well.
PRIME CANDIDATE is up in grade but at least he’s in form winning two of past three runs. Likes to lead and could give these something to chase.
Can we actually believe the hype and hysteria regarding ‘the world’s best sprinter’ NATURE STRIP? On form of late, no. But Chris Waller is shrewd and deliberate when he talks and he openly, and often refers to him as the fastest and best sprinter in the world. And he did so again during the week. “I know when he wants to, that nothing can lead this horse.” From that, a virtual tidal wave of money came crashing in on him again. At his best, he wins easily. But…is he at his best?
GYTASH, we know, is at his best and his best has beaten Nature Strip pointlessly, twice, and at their most recent outing. Must be considered again. Also from South Australia is the giant and giant-killing BEHEMOTH. His win under 60kg last start in the Gr 1 Rupert Clarke, thrashing Dollar For Dollar who carried 3.5kg less, was astonishing in many ways as he was held up as they turned for home. He is absolutely flying this prep.
The big grey CLASSIQUE LEGEND who won handsomely when resuming then, went straight past Nature Strip before he himself was gunned down by LIBERTINI last start, strips super fit and on his home track here. He’s a massive player too.
They said STAR OF THE SEAS raced flat in the Gr 1 Epsom last start but I think he was shuffled back out of it at the wrong time. This is grades easier and must be respected.
SCARLET DREAM dropped to the tail when resuming but came with a powerful burst down the centre of the track when 4th in a fast run Gr 2 Shannon over 1500m. Didn’t finish off as well last start when 8th, but is 3rd up now. Better placed this journey. So she looms large here.
THE CANDY MAN is a smart racehorse but he may be a tad short of Gr 1 level which was borne out in the Epsom. Better suited here and he can make a race of it.
Tip: 1. STAR OF THE SEAS
Good luck here. Probably best to have the field as your last leg in the quaddie. This is so hard to work out.
If it gets wet, and it may not now, WU GOK is the one to catch but with FUN FACT in the field, who, like him is a fast front-runner, we could see them cancel each other out. If either is in the race on their own, but represent threats.
BRIMHAM ROCKS and PATHS OF GLORY both ran on well in The Metrop. Brimham Rocks was wide for a bit and was beaten just on 4 lengths while Paths Of Glory was near last on the bend and charged home into 5th. Both rate highly.
Tip: PATHS OF GLORY
This is a really difficult race to unpack. Most of these horses are very similar in talent.
BEST STONE is racing at career-best level and beat a few of these last start but rises a little in weight. Is on home track though.
MIRRA VISION was 2nd to Best Stone last start and is also on home track. Has drawn a little better too.
JULIAN ROCK will be at big odds but can muster late and wasn’t too far behind Best Stone last start and is in 2.5kg better off.