Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, details the hopes of every runner in the Group 1 VRC Oaks at Flemington on Thursday, with his horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps and assesses the race. Good luck, punters!
T: Danny O’Brien / J: Damien Oliver (55.5kg)
Can the great man Danny O’Brien do it again? His horse Vow And Declare won the Cup and now he saddles the hard-finishing inform filly here. She stormed home to win the 2000m G2 Wakeful at this track last start. That’s always a massive lead-up race.
T: Mitch Freedman/ J: Ben Melham (55.5kg)
This is a serious racehorse. She blew by Miami Bound to most impressively win the 1600m G2 Manifold Stakes. Was runner-up to the subsequent Derby placegetter Soul Patch at her most recent start. Has the running style that is suited to this track.
T: Archie Alexander / J: Ryan Moore (55.5kg)
Has become a major player here based on her incredible upward form curve. Won a Ballarat mdn by a huge margin, then was a sound 2nd here before stepping up to stakes grade last start and flashing home to win the 2000m G3 Ethereal beating Vegas Jewel. If she has continued to improve she can win this.
T: Mark Kavanagh /J: Jordy Childs (55.5kg)
Outstanding galloper in the making. Looks a true stayer. Stormed home from a mile back to win at Moonee Valley then flashed home from near last to just miss in the Gr 3 Ethereal behind Gamay. Last start was very strong late when just failing in the Gr Wakeful behind Miami Bound. Big show.
T: John Sargent / J: Tim Clark (55.5kg)
Is a maiden from 8 starts. Saying that, she is G1 placed and did make good ground late when 5th at G2 level in the 2000m Wakeful last start behind Miami Bound.
T: Team McEvoy / J: Jamie Kah (55.5kg)
On paper looks like she can stay but may be a length behind the very best. Ran on well to place in a stakes race at Morphettville, which is weaker than this, then beaten 8 lengths by Miami Bound in the Gr Wakeful. Not keen.
T: Ken Keys / J: Dwayne Dunn (55.5kg)
She has ability but was beaten 7 lengths by Moonlight Maid in a G2, then beaten nearly 8 lengths by Gamay and Vegas Jewel in the G3. No.
T: Grahame Begg / J: James McDonald (55.5kg)
This might be a pretty handy staying filly. Finished like a train from last on the bend to win at Seymour, then rocked home for eye-catching 5th here in the G2 Manifold over 1600m. Track didn’t suit when good finishing 5th at The Valley also at a mile. Big step up in trip but looks a stayer.
T: Paul Perry / J: Nash Rawiller (55.5kg)
This filly has won 2 of past 3 starts, the latest over 2315m. So she can stay. The grade has been inferior to this but, she is by Declaration Of War. He sired Warning to easily win the G1 Derby and is also the sire of G1 Melbourne Cup winner Vow And Declare. So must be respected.
T: John Ramsey / J: Darryl McLellan (55.5kg)
This is a really nice horse in the making. But this grade will test. Thrashed at Newcastle by Amazing Peace, then sent to the bush and bolted in at Scone by nearly 9 lengths. Looked good, but this is another level.
T: John Sadler/ J: Jye McNeil (55.5kg)
Has staying talent but is not expected to be a player. Seems to hate this track. Form from 5 starts is woeful here. Was 5th at Caulfield in the G3 Ethereal behind Gamay.
T: Team Feek / J: Michael Walker (55.5kg)
Respect this filly. She will probably be big odds but shouldn’t be. She has real, pure staying talent. Has only raced 3 times for a mdn win but did run a game 4th here over 1800m, then last start was right there when 4th in the G3 Ethereal over 2000m behind Gamay.
T: – / J: –
T: John Sargent / J: Tommy Berry (55.5kg)
At 5th start finally broke through when winning a Canberra 2000m BM60 impressively. Has staying talent but is rising in class here.
T: Michelle Payne / J: Michelle Payne (55.5kg)
Is a maiden and raced just 3 times. This looks far, far too hard.