Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1 Tancred Stakes at Rosehill with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps and assesses the race. Good luck, punters!

1. AVILIUS (4) x42147x5453

T: James Cummings / J: Hugh Bowman (59kg)

Tough and talented and just as likely to come sailing down the outside and win. Ran a dour 3rd last week behind Addeyyb who narrowly beat Verry Elleegant in the Gr 1. Those top two horses had a real gut-busting battle down the straight so he might be the hardest one to beat here. Remember, he did easily win this race last year in the mud.

2. MUSTAJEER (2) 7235160×12

T: Kris Lees / J: Nash Rawiller (59kg)

Smart stayer. Is just a really, really honest racehorse. He won the 2787m Ebor in England last year. Two Sydney starts have been a win in the 1900m Parramatta Cup then a great 2nd behind Master Of Wine in the Gr 3, 2000m Sky High.  Respect a great deal.

3. DANCETERIA (7) 13141x0x06

T: – Kris Lees / J: Brenton Avdulla

Last start 6th, beaten over 6 lengths in the Gr 3 Sky High at this track, was the best of his 3 Aussie runs to do. He has never won at this trip. But he is a German Gr 1 winner in the mud. Not keen.

4. SOUTHERN FRANCE (8) 26441301×7

T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / J: Tom Marquand (59kg)

Outstanding stayer who won at Gr 2 level in Melbourne, quite easily at his last time over this trip. That was late last year. One run this time up was a nice, pleasing 7th in the Gr 1 Australian Cup over 2000m behind Fifty Stars. Watch betting as he is capable of winning this.

5. MIRAGE DANCER (1) 322x30x036

T: Trent Busuttin & Nat Young / J: Tommy Berry (59kg)

This is the dark horse. He is jumping out of his skin in anticipation of a big Gr 1 win soon. And it might be this race. He is a world-class 2400m runner. He is now 4th up from a spell and has the rails draw. Was a great, close-up 6th in the Gr 1 Australian Cup last start.

6. MUGATOO (9) 3x156x1112

T: Kris Lees / J: Kerrin McEvoy (59kg)

What a remarkable improvement curve this bloke is on. Just keeps getting better every run and handles the mud really well too. Strolled in to win the Canberra Cup over 2000m, then last week produced an astonishing fight down the stretch to just fail and beat English star stayer, Young Rascal. Rises 5kg but showed he can produce this trip. Big show.

7. ANGEL OF TRUTH (5) x65800x895

T: Gwenda Markwell / J: Glen Boss (58.5kg)

Good galloper who will go to the gates as the long shot of the field. But here’s a few reasons why he is a legitimate hope here. Firstly, he has run this trip in under 2:29. Which bests most the others. Avilius is comparable, and only Mirage Dancer has run faster. But, the significant difference here is this bloke is the only speed in the race so he will lead without any pressure. He won his Gr 1 by doing that.

8. CARIF (3) 5015222×03

T: Team Snowden / J: Tim Clark (58.5kg)

I love this horse and have already backed him to win the Melbourne Cup this year. So a victory here this trip would not surprise. Can he, I’m not sure at WFA level but he is genuine and boasts a terrific finishing burst. Is having his 3rd run this time up and placed in the Gr 3 Sky High on a heavy track last start over 2000m making ground late. Chance.

9. VERRY ELLEEGANT (6) 1x9410x422

T: Chris Waller / J: James McDonald (56.5kg)

Brilliant mare who we all know is the best horse in the race and the trip offers no issues either. Plus, she loves it being damp. So she wins easily…right? Maybe, probably. But I just wonder how much that gut-buster against a world-class 2000m star last week will worry her? If it doesn’t she wins for fun. If it does, well she will battle late.

Tip: 1. VERRY ELLEEGANT, 2. Avilius, 3. Mirage Dancer, 4. Mugatoo