Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1 Randwick Sydney Cup with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps and assesses the race. Good luck, punters!
T: Murray baker & Andrew Forsman /J: Hugh Bowman (56kg)
What will he do here? If he runs up to his best he could win by a huge space but he hasn’t shown that talent this time up. This bloke last spring ran 3rd in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup then came out and ran a cracking 4th in the Gr 1 3200m Melbourne Cup. But, his Tancred Stakes run last start was very poor.
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / J: James Mcdonald (55kg)
Good stayer when right and he might be just about there now. Did run a good race when making steady ground late for 7th in the Gr 1 Tancred. He hasn’t won at this trip but this is the first time for a few years that he has had multiple runs to get him fit during a campaign. Place show. .
T: Michael Moroney/ J: Brenton Avdulla (54kg)
Class stayer on his day and his day improves if the track is a bit damp. Was on pace all the way when a great 2nd in the Gr 1 Auckland Cup this trip back in March. But gave up rather meekly in the Gr 1 Tancred over 2400m last start when 12th to Sir Dragonet. Expected to run better as he will be on pace most of the way.
T: Mike Moroney/ J: Glen Boss (52kg)
Good stayer on his day and he wasn’t all that far away under 59kg in the WFA Gr1 Tancred last start. Big weight from here and he was 3rd in the Gr 1 Australian Cup in March. place show.
T: Chris Waller / J: Jay Ford (52kg)
Is out of form and probably finishes closer to last than first.
T: Danny O’Brien / J: Craig Williams (51.5kg)
Good mare, and is a Gr 1 winning mare who is finding form at the right time. Likes the sting out of the ground too. Came from near last in the Gr 1 WFA Tancred two weeks back to grab third. Carried 56.5kg that day. Is going to enjoy this race a great deal and that big drop in weight will help a lot. Big show.
T: Mark Newnham / J: Robbie Dolan (51.5kg)
This is the weighted horse. He finished right near Miami bound in the Tancred and while she drops 5kg, he drops 8.5kg and will be 3rd up going into this. Led in the Tancred and run down late. He probably can’t lead this field but that’s not a worry as he has great form when sitting off the speed. He looks perfectly placed. If it were 2500m I’d be all over him but the trip is my only concern.
T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/ J: Tim Clark (52.5kg)
Likes to be on the speed and his presence will ensure it is a fast bat all the way. Folded too badly last week in the 2600m Chairmans to warrant a serious thought here.
T: Willy Haggas/ J: Kerrin McEvoy (51kg)
Here is the query horse. Just how good is he? Kerrin McEvoy was at him a long way from home in the Gr 3 Manion Cup and although he looked beaten about a million times, he kept coming to win narrowly but impressively. One must suspect he is better for that outing to. Should be in this finish.
T: John O’Shea / J: Andrew Adkins (50kg)
This is such a strong staying mare and she is on the quick backup after flashing home late for 2nd in the Charimans over 2600m. Runs like this trip will suit a great deal and now that she is in form, she looms large.
T: Bjorn Baker / J: Rachel King (50kg)
Just looks such a good bet. She can stay all day and her run when 2nd in the Gr 1 Tancred coming from near last on the bend, was extraordinary. She took massive ground off the winner Sir Dragonet late. In this, she drops 7kg! She is very fit, will run on as she is so honest. Big, big show.
T: Team Freedman / J: Damien Thornton (50kg)
Top class staying mare who has placed this journey at stakes level. Last start was a tragic watch. She was three deep somehow all the way and yet stormed home to just miss catching Favourite Moon in the 2400m Manion Cup. She meets him 1kg better for the loss and really, she should have won. Looks a died-in-the-wool stayer who should be dashing home late.
T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / J: Kathy O’Hara (50kg)
How will they ride this bloke? If this was a 2000m race, then at the weights he would win comfortably. But he has to conserve his energy and his last start badly fading 6th when leading last week in the Charimans suggests he will get run over here. But not if they ride him off the speed and there are a couple here who also like to lead. Place show.
T: Phillip Stokes/ J: Ben Thompson (50kg)
Good stayer on his day and he has been racing very well. Did sit in 4th until straightening and out sprinted his rivals to easily win the recent Gr 2 Adelaide Cup in useful time over this trip. Has no weight so can sneak a place.
T: Chris Waller / J: Ron Stewart (50kg)
Interesting galloper. He finished on the heals of the placegetters when 5th in the Manion Cup beaten 3 lens and meets the winner 2kg better, then last week was 4th in the Chairmans over 2600m when 9th near the bend. Sneaky, rough place show as he can stay.