Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1 Flemington Newmarket Hcp with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps and assesses the race. Good luck, punters!
T: Mat Ellerton & Simon Zahra / J: Luke Currie (57kg)
This is a very, very good sprinter at this track. He once carried 59kg and ran 1.08.68 here. That is low flying and is good enough to nearly win this race. Ran a terrific 7th, beaten 1 length, in the Gr 1 Oakleigh Plate when resuming. Looks back better than ever and will be right in this finish.
T: Dan Morton / J: Mark Zahra (56.5kg)
This is a good sprinter on his day. He beat Celebrity Queen for instance at Gr 1 level carrying more weight back in November. But….was thrashed when resuming behind Nature Strip last start. Not keen.
T: Chris Waller / J: Damian Lane (56.5kg)
This is a dark horse. He can run time and he will run on. Never raced at this track but gives the impression that if he is allowed to settle he will come with a powerful burst. Drawn to receive a good run and if that spread across the track he will obtain a clear run. Finished hard to fail by a head in the Gr 1 Futurity over 1400m last start. Will test these.
T: Team Williams / J: Willy Pike (56kg)
You just have to love consistency and this mare, this wonderful WA mare is the epitome of that. She came home hard when resuming to dead heat for first in the Gr 1 Oakleigh Plate over 1100m and does like this journey even more. Just needs luck in running and looks to get that from this grade. Big threat.
T: Leon McDonald & Andy Gluyas / J: John Allen (55kg)
Interesting galloper. Has won from 1000m to 2000m and has Gr 1 placings over 2400m and last campaign ran in the Caulfield Cup. Yet, probably is better suited to this trip. He has a very impressive fresh record and resumes here. Working the house down too.
T: James Cummings / J: Damien Oliver (54.5kg)
Good galloper on her day and has won $1.5m in prize money. But, is inconsistent. If the best version of her turns up she can run a place. Is 2nd up here and hasn’t great 2nd up stats.
T: Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou / J: Michael Walker (54.5kg)
Former boom sprinter who just doesn’t have it at this level.
T: Gordon Richards / J: Dan Stackhouse (54kg)
Handy sprinter who is racing well but was beaten in a much weaker race here at Gr 2 level late last year and raced a little wide but was only 12th last start behind Celebrity Queen in the Gr 1 Oakleigh. Not keen.
T: Jason Warren & Dean Krongold/ J: Damien Thornton (54kg)
Super good sprinter. Super unlucky sprinter too because she gets back to near last start and has to weave between runners. Tragedy beaten when 4th in the Gr 1 Oakleigh when resuming 1100m. One stride later was in front. Past three starts have been in Gr 1 sprints and was unluckily beaten into 4th in all over them. You’d think the way she races that this track and trip will suit a great deal.
T: Rob Griffiths & Mat de Kock / J: Lachlan King (54kg)
Very strong sprinter at this track but this grade will test. Thrashed in the Gr 1 Lightning at WFA. Sneaky place hope at the weights here.
T: Neville Parnham / J: Brad Parnham (54kg)
Is good and gutsy and tends to run on speed. Is over from WA and has run well against the best there. Run down by Fabergino last start here when 2nd at Listed level so may struggle.
T: Team Freedman/ J: Craig Newitt (54kg)
Nicely bred and has ability but is a length or two behind a few of these. Narrowly beat Bold Star 1100m two runs back then made ground when 8th in the Oakleigh Plate.
T: Chris Waller / J: Craig Williams (54kg)
Looks an excitement machine. After running time and winning Gr 1 here against own age in Oct, was spelled and her stunning, brilliant first-up 2nd to Nature Strip in the Gr 1 Lightning over 1000m where she wins in two more bounds makes her look the one to beat here. Four starts here, 3 wins and that 2nd. Looks the one they all have to beat.
T: Saab Hasan / J: Jamie Kah (54kg)
Good sprinter and is in career best form winning past two comfortably. They were in races long removed from this quality though. Looks held.
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/ J: Dean Yendall (52kg)
Hard to think a horse who has raced 11 times thus far and only won the one race would be considered a threat here. And although he can hit the line and race well on certain days, this looks beyond him.
T: Annabel Neasham / J: Michael Dee (52kg)
Is raw and has talent. Nice colt who has a Gr 1 placing against his age group to his name but this looks way too rich.
T: Team Corstens / J: Jye McNeil (52kg)
Very under-rated sprinter. She is going to be off the pace but her talent and tenacity will get her home hard. Has run into September Run three times and been with her at the end, but has yielded narrowly each time. So must be considered a massive threat. If the track is racing better out wide she can spring a major upset. Have in your numbers.