Form analyst, SCOTT MCDONELL, previews Saturday’s Caulfield meeting, with horse racing tips and analysis for all 9 races. Good luck, punters!
Track Condition: Good 4
Rail Position: True entire circuit
Patrick Payne has DEFIBRILLATE absolutely flying at the moment with three city wins in a row. Will give them a start but has big finish and the one to hold out late.
DAWSON DIVA just missed here two starts back then she was the luckless runner behind Defibrillate here last start. Will get perfect run behind the speed and only needs ounce of luck to be in finish.
WOLFE looks the likely speed and should control this from the front. Caulfield can sometimes play to leaders in early races and typical Waterhouse/Bott runner he will be hard to run down.
AUSSIE NUGGET was well supported here last start and timed run to perfection to get up in last couple of strides. No reason he cannot figure again.
IT’SOURTIME started his career with a couple of solid wins then stable threw him in the deep end in Group 2 company last start and he did not let them down sneaking into a minor placing late. Drawn perfectly and gets back in a winnable race.
VALAQUENTA had no luck first-up in Sydney when raced wide throughout and was entitled to tire as he did. Strips fitter and would not leave out of chances.
CONCEITED resumes from spell. He won down the Flemington straight on debut then went to Gold Coast for Magic Millions and was placed. Been out for over a year but recent trials should have him forward enough for this.
CONFRONTATIONAL is another first-up from break. Model of consistency at first prep and would not leave him out of multiples fresh.
IMPECUNIOUS was impressive wining here at only start back last time in work. This is a big step up for her but she looks smart and can measure up to these.
The Danny O’Brien stable seems to have found the secret to SAFE PASSAGE this time in work with her winning both starts this time in. Comes into this primed third-up and can win again.
MALICORNE was brave chasing home the in form La Mexicana here last start. This looks no harder and she gets her chance to return to winners stall.
CHICA FUERTE won her maiden when fresh last time in work and she gradually progressed to taking on Group 1 level before break. She won Group 3 Ethereal Stakes here last time in work and will be running on late.
Thought that PERFECT JEWEL just looked a little better than these. She has won three of her six fresh and the West Aussie mare looks well placed to win this.
LUNAKORN knuckled down strongly last 200m to win at Flemington last start. Drawn ideally and if the run comes at the right time she can win this.
SOVEREIGN AWARD went too hard out front here first-up and was beaten before the turn. Expect he will be better from that outing and look for him to be an improver.
NEIGHBOURHOOD has not been beaten all that far in any start this prep and would not leave her out of multiples.
Tip: PERFECT JEWEL
Going to have something on the up and comer BUTTER CHICKEN in this. Dominant maiden winner at Pakenham last start and although this is a big step up she looks up to this.
YOUNG WERTHER looked like he needed the run first-up at Caulfield when got back in second half and just battled doing best work late. Sure to be better out to this distance range.
KHOEKHOE resumes. He was beaten just over 3 lengths in Group 3 company first-up at this track last time in work. Class colt and must be respected.
ALBARADO was always going to find them a bit too slick first-up in the Group 2 Autumn Stakes. Better from that outing and sure to be an improver.
Tip: BUTTER CHICKEN
ARCADIA QUEEN has won two of her three first-up tries. Class mare who finished last prep with G1 Mackinnon Stakes win. Sure to be better when she gets over further but her class will take her a long way in this.
Group 1 Epsom Handicap winner PROBABEEL made a triumphant return to racing winning here first-up from spell. She will be better out to this distance range and looks major player.
BEHEMOTH is unbeaten in two Group 1 races this track/distance. Made a mess of Listed race when resuming at Morphettville and he can win again from ideal barrier.
OLE KIRK won Group 1 Caulfield Guineas here last Spring. Looked like he would benefit from his run at Randwick last start when ran into placing. Class colt who will go close.
Tip: ARCADIA QUEEN
Hard to tip against the boom filly ENTHAAR. She made a mess of them on debut in Sydney after racing wide then resumed here first-up with a dominant win in the Group 3 Chairman’s Stakes. Barrier a concern but she is clear top pick.
ANAMOE just blew the start in the Prelude but he made an impression last 200m when ran along fence to just miss General Beau. Another who has had no favours with barrier draw but Damien Oliver aboard a big bonus.
INGRATIATING is the most professional juvenile in this race and makes his own luck going forward. Hard to see him turning the tables on Enthaar but he can sneak a placing.
GENERAL BEAU is a tough, gutsy colt. Drawn perfectly and will sit just off the pace. Jamie Kah could “win on a broomstick” at the moment and when gap opens straightening she will be there to take it.
Would have liked ANDERS to have drawn a bit closer to the rails but he has the speed to cross. No weight on his back and may run these off their legs.
The Stokes stable looks to have a smart gelding in ANCESTRY. Won all four starts in emphatic style last time in work including Listed race to end campaign. Takes on Group 1 company but looks up to it.
HANSEATIC just missed out when placed in G1 Blue Diamond this day last year. First-up from spell here is a tough task but he has won two of three fresh and has the talent to be in finish.
DIRTY WORK has been placed in three of his four first-up tries. Drawn to get the perfect run in behind the speed and if he gets chance last 200m will be steaming home late.
Always had an opinion of NONCONFORMIST and second-up from spell he goes on top at each way value. Drawn bit wide but expect he will go back and get over the top of these late.
MISS SISKA looks the likely speed driving through from her ideal gate. If she can get a breather before the corner she will take catching.
PARADEE returns to Melbourne after a winning trip to Gold Coast. Drawn perfectly and no reason she will not bee right in the mix.
HOMESMAN has a solid first-up record. Won at Group 2 level last time in work and expect he will be up front for long way in this.