Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1 $1m Lightning Stakes with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps – he has included the potential for a damp track in his thoughts. Good luck!
Flemington R7 – $1million G1 Lightning Stakes (WFA) 1000m
1. NATURE STRIP (1) 231x1x142
T; Chris Waller / J: James McDonald (58.5kg)
Champion. Best sprinter in the world and has a phenomenal first up record. Resumes here and will stamp his imprimatur on the race. Will be right in the finish.
2. I WISH I WIN (4) x123x1151x
T: Peter Moody / J: Luke Nolen (58.5kg)
Superstar. Resumes here and will find this hard because the trip is a tad too short. Will get back and be the one rushing home with the big red light over him. Can sneak a place.
3. BALLER (8) x8815x133x
T: Tony Gollan / J; Mark Zahra (58.5kg)
Is a Gr 1 placed horse and while he may be huge odds he perhaps shouldn’t be. He gets a long way back but he can motor and he really loves this track. Resumes here with last start being a 3rd in the 1200m Gr 1 VRC Classic behind Roch’N’Horse and Nature Strip here. Won recent trial.
4. FIRE (3) 7x1x1224x2
T: Team Hawkes / J: Damien Oliver (58.5kg)
Has talent but wouldn’t win this with a head start.
5. BELLA NIPOTINA (7) 8155x1219x
T: Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace / J: Ben Melham (56.5kg)
Gr 1 sprint winner and loves it wet. Resumes here and she goes well first up too. This is a tough field and the last time she raced Roch’N’Horse and Nature Strip and Baller, they beat her home. Recently won a trial so watch market.
6. ROCH ‘N’ HORSE (2) 7210x4221x
T: Michael Moroney / J: Jamie Mott (56.5kg)
Always a threat on big race days and does seem to run well at this track. In head to head races, she leads Nature Strip 2 to 1. Has the same record against Baller. Has first up form too. Will surely be right in this at the end. Has won twice at Gr 1 level this track.
7. SEPTEMBER RUN (6) 4x3135x84x
T: Chris Waller /J: Blake Shinn (56.5kg)
Solid mare who always runs on well at this level. Is a Gr 1 winner over 1200m and runs home hard at this track. Resumes here but when she last raced she was well beaten by Bella Nipotina at level weights.
8. MARABI (5) 111x11115x
T: Ciaran Maher & Dave Eustace /J: Ben Allen (56.5kg)
Here’s the x-factor horse. She is so smart on her day and has won 7 from 8 race starts including the prestigious Gr 1 Oakleigh Plate over 1100m. To counter this, she hasn’t raced for a year and this is very strong. Plus she hasn’t ever raced at this track. Will sit off the lead and hopefully strong at the end.
9. BUENOS NOCHES (11) 16123x
T: Matt Smith / J: Craig Williams (55.5kg)
Lightly raced but gifted 3YO. Was beaten a nose by Giga Kick then went into the Gr 1 Coolmore Stud here over 1200m and was 3rd to the brilliant In Secret. Has had two trials so may be right in the money.
10. MILLANE (10) 1x3380x
T: Peter Moody/ J: Dan Stackhouse (55.5kg)
Keeps getting a gig in these super strong races and never shows up. Has won this trip at stakes level but this should test him.
11. COOLANGATA (9) x11x3x315x
T: Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace / J: Jamie Kah (53.5kg)
Loves this journey and goes well first up. But boy what a task. Recently beat Giga Kick and I Wish I Win in a trial. Is a Gr 1 winner and Magic Millions winner and was 3rd in the Gr 1 Golden Slipper. Always a danger.
