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Horse Racing Tips – Group 1 ATC Derby

Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s  Group 1 $2millionATC Derby with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps – he has included the potential for a damp track in his thoughts. Good luck!

1. SHARP ‘N’ SMART (17) 4x1112x211

T; Team Rogerson  / J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg)

Rogey, his trainer, who has had some mighty horses, believes this is the very best of them. And he is yet to reach his top. Just keeps winning. Scored in a the Gr 1 NZ Derby last start. Can stay and looks the testing material although the gate may see him parted deep for a good while.

2. MANZOICE (14) 219281×86

T: Chris Waller / J: Michael Dee (56.5kg)

Finished like a grain to narrowly win the Gr 1 VRC Derby over 2500m. And in doing so nabbed Sharp ‘N’ Smart on the wire. So can stay and is good however his two runs this time up have been very plain.

3. ELLIPTICAL (3) x43227x174

T: Team Freedman / J: Mark Zahra (56.5kg)

Is very talented and now is very fit. Chased Sharp ‘N’ Smart home in the Gr 1 Champion Stakes last spring and did win a Gr 3 first up this prep. Last start only plodded late when 4th to Linderman.  Big danger here.

4. PERICLES (6) 1238×412

T: James Cummings / J: James Mcdonald (56.5kg)

Is very good. Can stay and is getting better with racing. Stormed home to easily win Gr 2 Autumn Classic over 1800m 2 starts back then on speed all the way when gutsy 2nd to Lindermann in Gr 1 Rosehill Guineas. Will be from this gate, in the top half of the field all the way..

5. WILLIAMSBURGH (12) 85135×7453

T: Gerald Ryan & Sterling Alexiou / J: Ryan Maloney (56.5kg)

Not bred to run this trip but was 5th in the Gr 1 Champion Stakes over 2000m last prep and last start was 3rd in the Gr 1 Rosehill Guineas over 2000m. Will be hurting over the final 250m here.

6. ANDALUS (8) 4x549x4172

T: Stephen Marsh/ J: Zac Purton (56.5kg)

Interesting galloper. Gives the impression he can run all day and certainly his Kiwi form is suggesting he is improving with racing. After winning a lowly $13,000 maiden in January, two starts later he ran Sharp ‘N’ Smart to a head in the Gr 1 NZ Derby this trip. And was finishing very hard. Is fit, on the way up and can dash late. Big show.

7. FULL OF SINCERITY (16) 32189434

T: Andrew Forsman  /J: Damian Lane (56.5kg)

Hard to beat here. Ran his heart out when 3rd in the Gr 1 NZ Derby behind the star cold Sharp ‘N’ Smart  beaten just over a length then on Aussie debut last week came from the clouds when close up 4th in. the 2000m Gr 2 Tulloch behind Tapledoodledo.

8. JAPANESE EMPEROR (1) 10×633

T: Michael Moroney /J: Men Melham (56.5kg)

Promising staying type up from Victoria for this. After starting at $101 and fighting hard for 3rd in the Gr 1 Australian Guineas, he stepped up to 2040m and was a gallant 3rd again to Bank Maur in the Gr 2 Alister Clark Stakes. Thus is harder with more depth but is improving.

9. MARK TWAIN (5) 01014

T; Roger James & Rob Wellwood/ J: Kerrin McEvoy (56.5kg)

Has been well tried to win this. Is a stablemate to the brilliant Gr 1 winner Prowess. Comes here off an eye-catching 4th in the Gr 1 NZ Derby last start where he was making ground late. Is lightly raced and improving all the time.

10. SUIZURO (4) 54x2x1102 

T: Trent Busuttin & Nat Young / J: Joao Moreira (56.5kg)

Should be one of the leaders here if not the actual leader. Ran that way last start when gunned down late and 2nd in the 2040m Gr 2 Alister Clark Stakes. That form may not be up to this but he is tough.

11. TAPILDOODLEDO (11) 6154424231

T: Kerry Taplin / J: Reece Jones (56.5kg)

Has enormous ability. But is fascinating. Back in January he was beaten out of a place in a low key handicap race at the Sunshine Coast, then 3 run later he storms down the centre of the track to claim a solid lead up race last week in the Gr 2 Tulloch Stakes. Can run all day and is a player again here.

12. VIRTUOUS CIRCLE (18) 91x132x880

T: Liam Howley / J: Brett Prebble (56.5kg)

Likes it wet and can stay but recent form is only average and others are preferred.

13. MAJOR BEEL (15) 13236×1142

T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott/ J: Tim Clark (56.5kg)

Another who will be on pace and is bred to stay. After a pair of restricted age group handicap wins, he stepped up to a Gr 2 last week and dashed clear in the straight only to be gunned down by Tapledoodledo in the Tulloch over 2000m. There will be a lot of pressure in this race so may be wanting late. But, should be right in it.

14. HIGH APPROACH (10) 59x411x077

T; Bjorn Baker Archie Alexander /J: Jordan Childs (56.5kg)

Victorian who was strong last prep but has been fading late in his races this time up and hasn’t run a place since Nov last year.

15. STROKE OF LUCK (9) 133×9226

T: John O’Shea / J: Tom Marquand (56.5kg)

Heavily backed in the Gr 2 Tulloch last start and was beaten just over a length. Couldn’t obtain a run in the straight at any stage and would have won if he had. So that makes him a threat here. Can atone.

16. CHEVAL SAVANT (2) 7×316

T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace/ J: John Allen (56.5kg)

Won a Stawell maiden two starts back then unplaced in the Gr 2 Alister Clark over 2040m. Did make ground but this is even harder.

17. DOMINGO (13) x536Lx5211

T: John O’Shea  /J: Brenton Avdulla (56.5kg)

Loves it wet and seems to be a stayer on the day up having won past two out of city low key races. This is a major step up however.

18. TWIGMAN (7) 413×171

T: Paul Shailer /J: Luke Dittman (56.5kg)

Should get beaten here but you must love the ambition behind his entry. Won in the bush in useful time it must be said with 60kg over 2000m last start. Not overly keen here though.


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