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QTC Derby Preview

Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s $1million Gr 1 Qld Derby with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps his South Aussie classic. Good luck!

1. KOVALICA (5) 41111×313

T; Chris Waller/ J: James McDonald (57kg)

Brilliant 3YO headed right to the top. Is in great form and should brain these.

2. THE VOWELS (14) 5×51111132

T: Team Edmonds/ J: James Orman (57kg)

Is special and more importantly is honest. Trip is a little worry but he was just 1.2lengths behind Kovalica in the Qld Guineas over a mile and was flying home that day. Top 5 finisher for sure. Big show.

3. ABERFELDIE BOY (8) 3243×133

T: Robbie Griffiths & Mat de Kock / J; Craig Newitt (57kg)

Smart emerging staying star who uniquely has placed in two Derbies thus far – 3rd in the 2500m Vic Derby and last start 3rd in 2500m SA Derby. Can stay. Keep safe.

4. PROMISES KEPT (1) 80×9229112

T: Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace / J: Mark Zahra (57kg)

Here’s your leader and he is very strong. If he is allowed some soft mid race sectionals he will take catching. Led and ran close 2nd in the 2500m SA Derby last start. Expect a very big run.

5. ANDALUS (19) x549x41727

T: John O’Shea / J: Blake Shinn  (57kg)

Has talent and is very interesting here. Hasn’t raced for 7 weeks when handy 7th in the ATC Derby and has been freshened with two short trials of late. Watch market.

6. TAPILDOODLEDO (7) 4424231095

T: Kerry Taplin / J: Ben Thompson (57kg)

Goes well and should be cherry ripe for this. After coming hard to win Gr 2 over 2000m in Sydney, got too far back and ran on only fairly when beaten 9 lengths in the ATC Derby. Ran even race when 5th in 2000m Gr 3 here last start. Place.

7. WAITAK (15) x312425570

T: Lance O’Sullivan & Andy Scott/ J: Jake Bayliss (57kg)

Good Kiwi stayer but in three runs in Australia he hasn’t shown anything. Not keen.

8. SPECIAL SWEY (17) 73094211

T: Chris Waller /J: Nash Rawiller (57kg)

Might be peaking at exactly the right time. Is a stablemate of Kovalica but after very easily winning his maiden over 2000m in NZ he came here and at big odds led all the way to win. the Gr 3 Rough Habit beating many of these. Runs on speed and is very fit.

9. STROKE OF LUCK (4) 133×922683

T:  John O’Shea /J: Ben Melham (57kg)

This bloke is pretty smart and although he hasn’t won for a long time he can stay. Was a handy 8th on a bog track in the ATC Derby then freshened when strong finishing 3rd to Special Swey in the Rough Habit. Has claims.

10. SMARTAWI (18) 4201120114

T: Greg Hickman / J: Tyler Schiller (57kg)

May be the dark horse, as he looks to be on the improve every run. Won 2 on the bounce during the Wagga carnival including the 1600m Guineas and last start was flashing home over 2000m when 4th at Rosehill. Have in your numbers.

11. ARBY (16) 4×2521615

T: Team Weatherley / J: Sam Weatherley (57kg)

Tough and emerging stayer from across the pond. Two starts back ran ’em down to win the Gr 3 Manawatu Classic then last start was 5th in the mud in 2100m Gr 3. This harder but he runs on. Have in your numbers.

12. CUT ON A DIME (2) 73×178334

T: Bryce Heys /J: Damien Thornton (57kg)

Good honest type who comes here off a great number of solid runs. Ran 4th in good lead up race last start behind Special Swey when making a lot of late ground. Place show.

13. THE ENGLISHMAN (13) 2x442x312

T: Team Snowden /J: Chad Schofield (57kg)

Restricted class galloper who is bred to stay. Just won his maiden two starts back at Kembla in the mud and then close 2nd in Class 1. This is many lengths harder but seems to be able to stay.

14. FAME (12) 3x322x6411

T: Peter Moody / J: Jason Collett (57kg)

Here’s a roughie to have a saver on. Is talented. Has won past two starts albeit in much, much easier grade but he won them contemptuously. Will develop into a smart one and this may be the start of his rise to prominence.

15. XTRAREVZ (6) x24212x716

T: John Sargent / J: Josh Parr  (57kg)

Form is pretty handy but in much weaker races. Saying that this John Sargent has a habit of getting them up for these big races when you think they aren’t up to it. So has claims.

16. SACRED MISSION (10) 1321

T: David Vandyke / J: Josh Parr (57kg)

This is harder than past few but he has had just four starts and has I’m proved in each one of them, culminating with a win on a Heavy 10 last start over 2200m. Watch market.

17. AMALGAMATION (20) 98x4x52614

T: Marcus Wilson / J: Samantha Collett (57kg)

Won a Class 2 over 2170m recently but thrashed in the mud in weaker race last start. Not keen.

18. TRUE BLUE (11) 786166

T: Matthew Smith /J: Opie Bosson (57kg)

Not racing well enough to be considered in a Class 2 race let alone a Gr 1 race.

19. SUBARCTIC (9) 98352742

T:  Matthew Smith /J: – (57kg)

Maiden still after eight runs in weaker grade. Enough said.

20. ARTFUL GIRL (3) 765551

T: Kevin Kempe /J: Marnu Potgieter (55kg)

Nice tough filly but is aiming way too high in this.

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