Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN previews Saturday’s Randwick , with horse racing tips and analysis for all 10 races on the card. Good luck, punters!
Track Condition: Good 4
Rail Position: out 3m, entire circuit
CONVERGE does look ideally placed. He is 3rd up, is the likely easy leader, and this is his home track. Led and run down by a smart one in SAIF last start. Should be perfect for this. If so, looms large here.
ALEGRON is a maiden still after three runs but has shown talent and improvement in all of them. Last start ran home gamely in Victoria to grab 2nd over 1500m giving the impression this would suit.
ARNAQUEUR looked strong in open maiden on debut at Kembla over 1300m when narrowly winning. was well backed that day suggesting the connections believe in him. Can run on.
PRIVATE EYE was unbeaten in four Strats last campaign but was plain first up when 8th. Let’s put that anomaly behind him because on his day he is very powerful late.
YARDSTICK is on home track and is 4th up. Three runs have been excellent without winning but should go to the lead and will take a lot of catching.
ATONEMENT has talent and is resuming here. Looked a rising force when last in work. Hits the line hard.
Tip: PRIVATE EYE
PANDANO came with a huge run to win a strong heat leading into this. He’s fit and in great form having won his past two starts. looks a big threat as the pace will be on from the get go.
GEMMAHRA probably sets the speed. She is super fast early in the mid stages and her heat win was outstanding in good time. Even fitter now.
CRISTAL BREEZE has been working to a win. Is now super fit and ran a strong 2nd in a tough heat behind Pandano. Is ready to rumble.
With the scratching of Arcaded everything has been thrown wide open. The unbeaten NAJMATY who has been solidly backed now looms large. She can sit off the pace and last start showed a great turn of foot when given her head to race away at stakes level over 1100m. Gives the impression this trip will suit.
CRYSTAL BOUND could not have been more impressive on debut at The Valley. She was with the speed and just took off coming to the bend to win by 6 lengths looking like a star. Harder ere but that sort of ability will be rewarded here.
TRIFACCIA is a maiden but is outstanding. She probably gives these a start however her finishing power is awesome. Should have won last start when 3rd and is fitter now. Looms very large.
This New Zealand filly AMARELINHA is pretty smart winning 5 of past 6 starts. She ran time to win the NZ Oaks over this trip and she just knows how to win races. Can get up on speed and stay there. Big chance.
MONTEFILIA backs up from the Derby last week when she was a handy 4th. She hasn’t shown true staying talent and may struggle over the last 100m. Place show.
HUNGRY HEART is Australia’s nbest 3Yo filly stayer. She has won her past two and gets home very hard. Big show.
DUAIS looks a solid stayer in the making. Runs on very hard and has claimed her past two starts. Both strong efforts suggesting this trip suits.
On form shown to date WILD RULER will make his presence felt. He is a very strong sprinter at this level. Stepped up to Gr 1 grade against the older horses last start and did hit the wire well when 6th. Less pressure early here and should find a spot then charge late.
SEPTEMBER RUN hasn’t run on like she can at past two starts but drops back to 3YO level here and that may well turn her on. If she runs up to her best form, she wins this. Should run a very bold race.
ISOTOPE is a star from Queensland. She’s drawn well here and has brilliant finishing power. Should get a great run here back in about 5th to the bend. Watch her unwind.
Tip: 1. WILD RULER
What a terrific race. This year it looks like the lower weighted horses hold the power. MIAMI BOUND has run herself back into top form and she could just go bang at the end of this. Finished hard to grab 3rd in the Gr 1 Tancred over 2400m last start and drops 5kg. Big danger.
SPIRIT RIDGE, if he sees the trip out, looms large as well. He drops 7.5kg for his brave 5th in the Tancred. Trip is his biggest worry today as he did weaken last 150m in the Tancred. Big show.
New to the scene is the English galloper FAVOURITE MOON who looked tough in claiming the Gr 2 Manion Cup on his Aussie debut. He too may struggle a little with the journey here but he is weighted to run a very big race.
SHE’S IDEEL and REALM OF FLOWERS are just class acts who have finishing power and will stay the trip. She’s Ideel came home hard late to grab 2nd in the Gr 1 Tancred, and Realm Of Flowers should have beaten Favourite Moon last start. Both are extra smart and can run all day.
Fantastic race. English visitor ADDEYBB won this race last year beating Verry Elleegant and is primed and ready to repeat the dose again. Fell to her power last start when 2nd in the Ranvet Stakes but he is fitter now and has acclimatised more. Is so honest and must be rated in your top two.
SIR DRAGONET is enigmatic. If he runs up to his very best he can beat these and he looks back to it with a very easy win in the Gr 1 Tancred last start over 2400m. Coming back 400m is a concern but his admirers are over the moon that he’s back in form.
MUGATOO is a tough horse. After slogging through the mud to claim the $5million All-Star Mile, he moved to win the Gr 1 Doncaster last week and wilted in the final 100m. He did carry top weight so to finish 4th was a commendable effort. This is his fav trip.
VERRY ELLEEGANT is just a modern day champion over pretty much any distance. A shower is expected at midday which will help her as she loves the sting out of the ground. Is game and honest and went past her sparring partner Addeybb last start to win the Gr 1 Ranvet. Huge chance to turn the tables on him here too. She was 2nd in this race last year.
The mile at Randwick is where PROBABEEL is most at home. This looks ideal for her today. She did run a sensationally quick 1:32:86 in winning the Gr 1 Epsom here last October. If you overlook her very disappointing run in the mud at The Valley behind mugatoo in the All-Star Mile, then she is clearly the one to beat.
COLETTE is a superstar. She is a multiple Gr 1 winner and would not have been out of place in the Queen Elizabeth had she run in it. Is the reigning Golden Eagle champion and when last at this trip, was beaten a nose by Verry Elleegant. Fantastic stats for this event.
NIMALEE steps up to the big time here but deserves a crack after her past two most impressive, powerful wins. Will get back but will also run on.
ODEUM is classy and is 3rd up here after two fine runs. Should run a cracker at odds.
TOFANE is the class horse here but drawn badly, is first up and has the most weight. Saying that, if she gets cover she can swamp them.
FIESTA hasn’t fired up this prep yet but is 3rd up into this, has Hughie to steer and strips fitter. Drawn perfectly.
WANDABAA is the knock out horse here. She has run two almighty races since resuming, both in this grade, latest when flying home from 11th on bend to grab 3rd in the gr 3 Birthday card. Have in your numbers.