Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1 Randwick ATC Derby with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps and assesses the race. Good luck, punters!
T: John O’Shea /J: Brenton Avdulla (56.5kg)
Is one of the real, bonafide stars of the 3YO scene and is also extremely fit. He loves this track and the last time he was here he charged down the middle of the track to win the Gr 1 Randwick Guineas racing away. Stepped up to 2000m, he was good but dour when getting home hard for 4th to Mo’unga in the Gr 1 Rosehill Guineas. Races like this trip will suit a great deal.
T: Lance O’Sullivan & Andrew Scott / J: Kerrin McEvoy (56.5kg)
New to Australia but his New Zealand form is quite remarkable. Is a brilliant miler and he carried that class onto the Gr 1 NZ Derby where he won beating two rivals here Milford and The Frontman. He narrowly beat them but he has won 5 races from 9 starts so he knows how to find the line. Plus, Kiwis in this Derby always run well.
T: Paul Perry / J: James McDonald (56.5kg)
Class galloper, in fact looks the real deal for a race like this. Can finish hard and he did that when hitting the front near home only to be run down on the line by the smart Mo’unga in the recent Gr 1 Rosehill Guineas. He is bred to run all day and he is getting better with every race. Drawn to receive a great run and looms very large.
T: Stephen Marsh / J: Damien Oliver (56.5kg)
Looks to have talent and was a close-up 2nd in the Gr 1 NZ Derby over this trip beaten a head by Rocket Spade. Up on speed but weakened out in the recent Gr 1 Rosehill Guineas behind Mo’unga. That run was a worry. But the 2400m effort makes him a place show.
T: Murray Baker & Andrew Forsman / J: Hugh Bowman (56.5kg)
Was pretty one-paced last week in the Gr 2 Tulloch stakes over 2000m behind Yaletown. The pattern suited the leader, but this bloke was a close enough 5th turning for home and only plodded finishing 8th. The run will bring him on and the horse did finish a close up 3rd in the 2400m Gr 1 NZ Derby recently.
T: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / J: Tim Clark (56.5kg)
Interesting galloper. Very quickly rising not only through the distances but through the grades too. Showed speed to lead then just kept rolling on what was a leader biased track last week. But he still had to be there for the fight and he did winning the Gr 2 Tulloch Stakes over 2000m beating a fair few of these. If they let him run along again, the quick back-up, this time on his home track will play into his hands.
T: Danny O’Brien / J: Tom Marquand (56.5kg)
Good galloper from Melbourne who was one of those who fought on hard but just couldn’t run down Yaletown last week. The quick back-up is beneficial and keep in mind he was a great 3rd in the VRC Derby over 2500m. Has strong claims.
T: Matt Cumani / J: Craig Williams (56.5kg)
This is a really strong young horse. He has great form against the best of the Victorians and last start was beaten 4 lengths when 6th to Mo’unga in the Gr 1 Rosehill Guineas. Was there as they turned but only plodded home. Trainer said the run would help incredibly.
T: Edward Cummings / J: Rachel King (56.5kg)
Is ready to run a big race after a terrific run to grab 2nd at Gr 2 level behind Yaletown when he made steady ground late. He gave the impression that he will be suited to this trip. Has strong each way claims.
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace / J: John Allen (56.5kg)
Good strong horse getting better with every run. Did win the 2200m Tasmanian Derby rather easily and last start was a close up 2nd over 2200m in the St Leger Trial. Seems to be able to run all day.
T: Ciaron Maher & David Eustace /J: Jamie Kah (56.5kg)
Good strong tough 3YO who runs hard but the trip at this level may be his downfall. Was there to win coming to the bend last start in midweek affair over 2200m but wilted late. Place at very best.
T: John Sargent /J: Tommy Berry (56.5kg)
This bloke may make a race of it. He is unknown this trip but is bred to stay and after a pair of provincial wins, he stepped up last week to Gr 2 company and was strong late to grab 4th, beaten a length by Yaletown. May well be the dark horse.
T: Greg Hickman / J: Keagan Latham (56.5kg)
Won a Goulburn maiden just 4 runs back and 2 runs ago fell in to win a provincial BM 64. Up to this level last start and was found wanting running 2nd last to Yaletown. Not likely.
T: Wendy Roche / J: Andrew Adkins (56.5kg)
Started $201 in the Gr 2 Tulloch Stakes last weekend and actually hit the line well when beaten 2 lengths by Yaletown. Isn’t expected to trouble these but he does have some talent.
T: Paul Perry / J: Damian Lane (56.5kg)
Won a 2300m bush race narrowly back in Feb, and subsequent runs have been unplaced efforts in midweek grade. No.
T: David Payne/ J: Jason Collett (54.5kg)
Outstanding 3YO filly, perhaps the best staying filly in the land. Won the Gr 1 Champion Stakes over 2000m in very fast time and was then spelled. Two starts this time up have been first rate and that 3rd to Mo’unga last start over 2000m had back me written all over it for this. Big chance.