Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, previews Saturday’s Rosehill meeting, with horse racing tips and analysis for all 10 races. Good luck, punters!
Track Condition: Heavy 10
Rail Position: True
This bloke HARD TO SAY ran a cracking 4th on debut in the Breeders’ Plate which is always a great benchmark of talent. Drawn wide here but the wet track may help offset that. Looks to be a major player. Big show.
AFFIDAVIT won trial and looked smart doing it. American sire so wet track probably assists. Watch market but appears gifted. Danger
VANCOUVER’S CROWN was 7th of 9 at Newcastle on debut but should have won the race. Couldn’t get a run in the straight at all. This bigger, stronger field is a worry but has obvious talents too. Deserves to win.
Tip: VANCOUVER’S CROWN
PARTICIPATOR is up from Wagga Wagga. Unbeaten in two starts to date, latest on home track in a Cl 1 where he stormed away to win by nearly 5 lengths. Might be very talented.
TESTATOR SILENS is also bright and after winning first two starts came to town and was a cracking 3rd in this grade. That will set him up nicely for this. Respect that.
COSTAS looked solid under a big weight when on pace and narrowly beaten at Dubbo in a Cl 3 last start. Third up now so expect a better showing.
Tip: TESTATOR SILENS
JESSE JAMES has hit his straps and is racing lights out at the moment. Wet track shouldn’t prove an issue. Is just so consistent this level.
REBEL RAMA looks in this up to her eyeballs. Is 4th up now and last start came home stylishly from 11th on the turn to wind up a close 4th in a similar race. Has wet track form too. Can improve.
UNWAVERING FAITH is up a little in class but form is great winning 2 of past 3. Including last start over 2100m in the Cessnock Cup. Loves the mud too. Respect all that. Chance.
Tip: JESSE JAMES
This looks a strong race, and a fascinating race. POLLY GREY is the class and the last time she raced over this trip was at this track and she won at strakes level. Is 2nd up here but is on home circuit so races highly.
BLUE SOLDIER is on the quick back-up from last week’s The Gong when a game and battling 6th, and will test these. Appears the only speed in the race and is good on wet tracks. Looks the one to beat.
KISS THE BRIDE is very fit and comes back in trip after looking to struggle last 150m last start. Previous form was very good for this type of race. Big danger.
Tip: 1. BLUE SOLDIER
Tough race. SHADOW CRUSH has tended to take a few runs before hitting his straps in the past but saying that he has trialled twice in good style leading into this. Carried 59kg to win this grade last campaign on a wet track and has same weight here. Big show.
UNDENIABLE is so honest and so fit and so in this race. Just will be used up a bit to hunt hard from this inside gate but gee she’s a tough animal. Likes it wet.
LIBERTY SUN is honest as well and in form. Did win similar race two starts back. Should be rattling home. Great race.
Tip: 1. UNDENIABLE
CISCO BAY hasn’t won in quite a few starts but his 5th last start was better than it looked as he was held up. Looks the testing material.
LORD ARDMORE is stepping up in grade a little here but is on home track and is racing in fine form. Gets a helping 2kg claim. Fitter now. .
SO UNITED and NEW KING fought out a slightly weaker race last start over 1800m. Probably New King will benefit more for this race as he can sit off what will be a hectic clip.
Tip: 1. NEW KING
Good test for SOUTHERN LAD. He looked great when resuming and finishing too hard against similar opposition. Looks to be getting faster as he ages. He looms large.
This Queenslander TAMBO’S MATE is pretty smart. He is fast, will be up on speed all the way and has won past two in greats style including a Listed race last start. But, what he has mainly in his favour – 4 starts on wet tracks for 4 easy wins! Expect a good run.
From this good gate SPACEBOY probably leads and he will take catching as always. Is very fit.
Tip: 1. TAMBO’S MATE
What a good contest. BANDERSNATCH looked strong when resuming in what may have been a slightly tougher race than this. Was in the leading quartet all the way and crossed in 6th spot behind Lost and Running. Drawn perfectly and is a dab hand in the mud too.
PRIME CANDIDATE is very fast and looks the leader. Is also very fit and should lead these for home. May take a lot of catching.
ELLSBERG is game as and well up to this class. Is also 4th up and will be handy all the way. Will love this trip and is worth an each way ticket with this light weight.
Tip: 1. BANDERSNATCH
The 2kg weight allowance is in the favour of HOLYFIELD who resumes here. Is used to racing against better horses than this. Looks well placed today.
BLAZE A TRAIL was heavily backed and came with a powerful burst to win first up over 1200m in good time at this level. Looks better placed in these shorter races and he may go on with it this campaign.
BROOKSPIRE is first-up and has fresh form. In fact goes well when resuming. Trained here and will show up.
There should be a good battle for the early lead here and I think FORMENTERA will win that. He is getting better as he ages and ran a great 3rd last start over 1900m when leading. Shorter trip helps here.
ARTERO is strange. He has explosive last 600m ability – when he wants to show it. Has won for Reece Jones before who rides him with no weight on his back here. Impressive win last start in shorter race coming from last on bend – which is always significant.
LEASE is fast, tough, in form and very fit. Will probably sit 3rd to the bend and will take holding off.