Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1 $3million TJ Smith with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps – he has included the potential for a damp track in his thoughts. Good luck!
Rosehill R7 – $3million TJ Smith Stakes (WFA) 1200m
1. NATURE STRIP (7) 31x1x142x6
T; Chris Waller / J: James Mcdonald (58.5kg)
Given how this race will be run I suspect he will fly out and find the front. From there, if Overpass doesn’t attack him, he controls the race, kicks clear as they turn and wins for fun.
2. LOST AND RUNNING (15) 21x10x317x
T: John O’Shea / J: Hugh Bowman (58.5kg)
Top class sprinter who runs brilliantly first up and resumes here. Loves this track too. Will need to drop right out from this gate however and make a long late charge.
3. PRIVATE EYE (2) 082x1217x4
T: Joe Pride / J: Brenton Avdulla (58.5kg)
Outstanding first up effort when 4th at Flemington with a big weight in the Gr 1 Newmarket behind In Secret. Came home on slower part of the track too. Meets her 2.5kg better for losing by under 2 lengths. Big danger here.
4. MAZU (1) 111x5232x5
T: Team Snowden / J: Sam Clipperton (58.5kg)
Is very good. And loves this track where he is trained. Just over 2 lengths behind In Secret when resuming in the 1200m Gr 1 Newmarket and was rattling home late. Suited here and meets In Secret 1.5kg better.
5. PAULELE (3) 22x61801x8
T: James Cummings / J: Joao Moreira (58.5kg)
6. I WISH I WIN (14) 23x1151x23
T: Peter Moody/ J: Luke Nolen (58.5kg)
Interesting galloper. Gives the impression he is a superstar in waiting. Is 3rd up into this so is fit and can rattle home at the rate of knots. Came from last and was conspicuously mowing them down when 3rd to In Secret last start in the Newmarket. Has great wet track form and meets her 1kg better for losing by a length. Big show.
7. OVERPASS (4) 557x26690x
T: Bjorn Baker /J: John Parr (58.5kg)
Gos well fresh and is resuming here. Distance will test against these. Not keen.
8. ROCKETING BY (8) 738915×676
T: David Pfeiffer /J: Kerrin McEvoy (58.5kg)
Another who will get back and run on although he did that last start in the Gr 1 Galaxy over 1100m with a light weight and still missed a place. Not liking him here.
9. SHELBY SIXTYSIX (5) 09702×8988
T; Danny Williams/ J: Tim Clark (58.5kg)
Is going to be massive odds and rightly so as he hasn’t run a place in 4 starts this campaign. Did run a cheeky race last week but in weaker grade. Does grow a leg when it is wet though.
10. GIGA KICK (9) 1x11115x3
T: Clayton Douglas / J: Zac Purton(56.5kg)
Brilliant sprinter who stormed home to win The Everest against many of these. One run from a spell was sound 3rd at Gr 2 level behind Passive Aggressive. Fitter now and looks one of the hardest to beat.
11. LOFTY STRIKE (10) 11x347x122
T: Julius Sandhu / J: Craig Newitt (56.5kg)
Has enormous ability. After a game Gr 2 win over Uncommon James, he has been runner up twice at Gr 1 level, latest when a length behind In Secret in the Newmarket. Came from 15th that day. Does meet her 1kg worse however but he is flying at present.
12. MARIAMIA (13) 31443×1141
T: Joe Pride/ J: Tyler Schiller (56.5kg)
Perfectly ridden last start with no weight on her back and dashing away with what proved a winning break in the Gr 1 Galaxy over 1100m. Not suited at the weights this time around but is very game and will be thereabouts. Goes well in the mud.
13. PASSIVE AGGRESSIVE (6) 1111x4x1
T: Graeme Begg / J: Jordy Childs (56.5kg)
Has had 6 starts for 5 wins including narrowly knocking over old Eduardo when resuming in the Gr 2 Challenge Stakes over 1000m. Will be on speed probably sitting a length off Nature Strip. Getting the trip against this level of rival is her biggest hurdle. But, will be right in it.
14. SHADES OF ROSE (11) xP211118x0
T; Bjorn Baker /J: Rachel King (56.5kg)
Carried no weight and was on speed until halfway down track before folding behind Mariamia last start. Fitter now but rises 5kg in tougher race.
15. IN SECRET (12) 1x2121x131
T: James Cummings / J: Ben Melham (54.5kg)
Brilliant sprinter. Simply unbeatable at Flemington and proved that with dominant Gr 1 win. Can she replicate that here? Probably is the answer because she is so honest.