Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s  Group 1 the $1.5m Northerly Stakes with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps – he has included the potential for a damp track in his thoughts. Good luck!

1. CASCADIAN (12) 5591×34115

T: James Cummings / J: James McDonald  (59kg)

Outstanding Sydney galloper who excels at this trip. Is honest and very tough. Is a Gr 1 winner on the eastern seaboard and looks a cut above these – if he runs at his best. Being a very hardy horse he should go forward and be in top 4 all the way. Is the one to beat.

2. DOM TO SHOOT (7) 830142×871

T: Team Casey / J: Paul Harvey (59kg)

Getting fitter and faster with every start this time up culminating with a dominant win in a much weaker race last start. Has found this level tough in the past but last start was solid and could sneak a place..

3. BAD WOLF  (2) 0567054326

T: Ash Maley / J: Shaun MGruddy  (59kg)

Old timer who still has zest for racing. Placed in a weaker race this trip here two runs back but plodded home last start for 6th behind Minsk Moment here over 1400m. Not keen.

4. STARTRADE (8) 0113317423 

T: Dan Morton / J: Chris Nicoll  (59kg)

Has the finishing power to win this. Was near last turning for home when flashing home for 3rd in a Gr 1 last start behind Trip Of The Trade, beaten less than 2 lengths. Is super fit and loves a  solid pace which he should get here. Has claims.

5. KAPTAIN KAOS (13) 0x7018x089

T: Mike Granthan / J: Lucy Warwick  (59kg)

Started $101 this grade last start when held up behind runners and 9th to Trix Of The Trade in the Railway Stakes. Fitter now and is capable but keeps finding bother.

6. GOD HAS CHOSEN  (10) 411123×877

T: Donna Riordan / J: Shaun O’Donnell (59kg)

Has talent and was midfield all the way when beaten 4 lengths by Trix Of the Trade in the Gr 1 last start. Is fitter now as that was his 3rd start this time up. Can place at big odds.

7. IRONCLAD (11) 00x170x340

T: Will Clarken /J: Brad Rawiller (59kg)

Didn’t give a yelp when they turned for home when well beaten 12th to Trix Of The Trade last start in the 1600m Railway. Previous form was solid so give one more chance.

8. LAST OF THE LINE  (3) x7x41x5045

T:  Stephen Miller  J: Brad Parnham (59kg)


9. NOTORIOUS ONE (15) 0964×40060

T: Team Gangemi / J: Laqdar Ramoly  (59kg)

Likes to press forward from gate rise and will have to do that from this wide draw. But isn’t racing well enough to be in the finish.

10. TRIX OF THE TRADE (16) 111220×131

T: Col Webster / J: Troy Turner  (58.5kg)

Is the best in the west right now and showed that when scooting home from midfield to easily win the Gr 1 Railway over a mile last start. Up 3kg in weight here which will stop his charge a bit but is so consistent and honest he must be considered. The draw may test a bit too.

11. ALASKAN GOD  (6) 7x11111x60  

T: Dan Morton /J: Chris Parnham (58.5kg)

Last start must be a forgive run. Sat back then hooked out as they turned, moved up easily for about 100m and then just plodded home late when 10th to Trix Of The trade. Is much better than that and does love this trip. Is 3rd up now too and has drawn better. Have in your numbers.

12. STEINEM  (4) 91x396x052

T: Team Eustace /  J: John Allen (57kg)

Former British mare with talent but this may test. It’s a long way to come for the top horses let alone these Gr 3 level types. Was 2nd over 2000m at Flemington last start at Gr 2 level. Not keen.

13. SEARCHIN’ ROC’S (14) 7x3421x018

T: Jim Taylor / J: Kyra Yuill (56.5kg)

Very smart mare. Got caught up along the fence and runs just didn’t come last start when 8th to Trix Of The Trade in the Gr 1 last start. Previously had won the Gr 3 Peters over 1500m here. Definitely the smokey of the field.

14. TREASURED STAR  (5) 2x1151x816

T: Adam Durrant /  J: Willy Pike (56.5kg)

Very smart on her day and is one of the ones to beat in this. Drew wide and had to go right back when hard finishing 6th to Trix Of The Trade last start. Better suited this trip nowadays, is fitter now and probably sits two pairs closer. All that adds up to a big finish.

15. BUSTLER  (9) 1×1112

T: Nev Parnham / J: Steve Parnham (52kg)

Hmmm, this is an interesting animal. He is very good with 4 wins from 5 starts and last start a close 2nd to the boom filly Amelia’s Jewel in the WA Guineas  over a mile. Hits the line hard and with the light weight from this handy enough gate, he might be the one to be finishing hardest. Have in your numbers.

16. AMELIA’S JEWEL (1) 111×121

T: Simon Miller / J: Patrick Carberry (50kg)

Is going to take some beating. She is the boom 3YO this season and with 5 wins from 6 starts she has lived up to it. On times run and the weight scale here, they simply can’t beat her if she gets clear running down the straight.  Big danger.