Form analyst, RIC CHAPMAN, looks at every runner in Saturday’s Group 1 $4million Star Doncaster Mile with horse racing tips for the first four. Read on to see how he maps – he has included the potential for a damp track in his thoughts. Good luck!
Rosehill R8 – $4million Star Doncaster Mile 1600m
1. ALLIGATOR BLOOD (12) x721551x14
T; Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott / J: Tim Clark (57.5kg)
Has drawn well enough, is 3rd up, probably is the best horse in the field, is on home track and is a multiple Gr 1 winner. On paper reads as the winner. Trouble is he will be taken on in front early and with this topweight that may leave him vulnerable. Mind you, he doesn’t have to lead to win and if they take a sit he nearly does.
2. MR BRIGHTSIDE (2) 115473×521
T: Team Hayes/ J: Zac Purton (55.5kg)
Nice even Gr 1 effort to win the All-Star Mile last start and that’s always a big help leading into this. And, he did win this race last year with a stunning last 200m dash. Has matured and become even better gets the perfect marble. Big chance.
3. Kirwin’s Lane (24) 3x44131x69
T: Team Freedman / J: Mark Zahra (56.5kg)
SCRATCHED
4. MY OBERON (7) 1x13x16x60
T: Annabel Neasham / J: John Allen (54kg)
Does like give in the ground and gets that here. Two starts this time up on fast tracks have been poor, latest when 14th to Mr Brightside in the All-Star Mile. Last prep, carried 59kg to win a Gr 2 mile on a heavy from this gate.
5. FANGIRL (19) 0x2562x322
T: Chris Waller / J: Joao Moreira (53.5kg)
Ticks so many boxes. Loves this trip, loves this track, has won in slow going twice before and has taken a WFA path leading into this with three placings, all terrific runs, in all three races this time up, two of them at Gr 1 level. Draw is awkward but has the right jock and weight. Huge threat.
6. GOING GLOBAL (4) 16x13x121x
T: Chris Waller / J: Brenton Avdulla (53.5kg)
Interesting galloper. Has done all her racing in the US and past 7 of them at Group level. And has done them very well. Is a fast miler with the perfect barrier here. But, she is first up with just one average trial under her belt. US horses tend to love it wet so watch market. Big show.
7. CONVERGE (6) 20x6900x73
T: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott /J: Brett Prebble (52kg)
Hard to beat here. is today he finally stands up and shows what he is made of? Is 3rd up into this, loves it damp underfoot, is trained here and has the best weight. Led and still came home last 600m with 59kg in under 34sec last start when beaten a neck by Anamoe and Fangirl. Meets the mare 3.5kg better and is fitter now. Top hope.
8. DUKE DE SESSA (9) x3552x131x
T: Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace /J: Dylan Gibbons (52kg)
I’m having this bloke in my numbers. He is from Ireland where he has 3000m form but hasn’t started since November. Came to Australia and been freshened up. Has terrific stats while fresh, has won this trip, loves it, repeat, loves it wet and drawn well. Trial win recently was outstanding.
9. GENTLEMAN ROY (10) x2146x1247
T; Team Hayes/ J: Rachel King (52kg)
Nuisance value horse. Can’t get a mile against this grade but this light weight may help. Saying that, he likes to be in front as do others so he looks to wilt once they top the rise.
10. LION’S ROAR (17) 036x0025x8
T: John O’Shea / J: Craig Newitt (52kg)
His form isn’t great but he has a light weight here and is 2nd up on his home track. And has run mightily in the past at this track and trip. Was beaten only 2.5lengths by Anamoe last start carrying 59kg. If Anamoe where in this with 52kg he would win by 6 lengths. Respect him.
11. NUGGET (22) 14×2111355
T: Ciaron Mahar and Dave Eustace / J: Andrew Gibbons (51.5kg)
If he had drawn a gate you could build a case that he is the one to beat. And may still well be. Won here last December this trip in exceptionally fast time with 61kg when sitting just off the pace. Is very fit now that he is 4th up. If he finds a spot back in say 5th with cover, he can win. Perfectly weighted.
12. BANDERSNATCH (5) 0x3200x341
T: Team Hawkes / J: Taylor Marshall (51kg)
Won the Prelude to this last week like a good, in form, type should. Was on pace all the way and ran good time. Drops 5.5kg here and is perfectly drawn so will be in the firing line probably just off them. Is a definite lightweight hope.
13. GOLDEN MILE (11) x21411x240
T: James Cummings / J: Zac Lloyd (51kg)
Is a Gr 1 winner at this journey and two months ago looked the best weighted horse in the field. But his latest form hasn’t been great. That may be because he’s been on fast tracks and he isn’t suited to that. His damp track form, which he gets here, is outstanding. Don’t give up on him just yet.
14. MUSTANG VALLEY (3) 211210xL39
T; Andrew Forsman /J: Robbie Dolan (51kg)
Top class Kiwi mare who has a Gr 1 win on a heavy track over 2000m to her credit and last start was beaten 4 lengths when 9th in the Gr 1 Coolmore over 1500m. That run was better than it looked as nothing made ground late. Perfect gate here and can place at huge odds.
15. HOPE IN YOUR HEART (23) x811142x14
T: Kerry Parker / J: Jay Ford (50.5kg)
Is just a beautiful, tough, honest mare well capable of winning this – providing she gets a good run. Draw is wicked. Will ease and probably gets trapped three deep all the way. If she does get in, she will finish very hard.
16. ZOUGOTCHA (13) 125x111x41
T: Chris Waller / J: Kerrin McEvoy (50.5kg)
Easily won a Gr 1 here this trip in the mud last year. Has raced 8 times for 5 wins and one of those was last start in the Gr 2 Phar Lap over 1500m. Should be able to sit about 7th, maybe even one off and all the money has been for her. is tough.
17. PROTAGONIST (8) 54x41102x1
T: William Haggas /J: Ben Thompson (50kg)
Is going to take some beating. Won first up in Australia over 2000m last start in very fast time beating a subsequent stakes winner. Not won at this trip but has never carried such a small weight before and does boast wet track form back in England. Should receive a great run and jock is flying at present. Big chance.
18. CEPHEUS (16) x40030x231
T: Matty Dunn /J: Dean Yendall (50kg)
From this gate he will find it hard. is fast early though and led all the way to win Gr 2 Ajax last start with 56kg over 1500m. This is another level up and there is so much speed for him early to contend with.
19. COMMUNIST (21) 14122×3716
T; Michael Freedman/ J: Tyler Schiller (49kg)
If he had drawn a gate I’d be all over him in this but I can’t find a spot for him in the run that isn’t three wide all the way. Now, with this weight he may well be able to absorb a hard wide trip as he is very fit and gifted. Was beaten just on a length by the great Anamoe at WFA last start and drops 6kg.
20. LINDERMANN (18) x2292x5121
T: Chris Waller / J: Dean Holland (49kg)
Is the query horse because he has no weight, is fast and tough, is in superb form but has drawn badly. Has really no other option other than to head to the lead and may well be the one who finds the front. But can he control the tempo with so much speed breathing down his neck? Maybe because, yep, no weight on his back. Can win.
21. OSIPENKO (1) 12x73x517
T: Chris Waller / J: Michael Dee (49kg)
Has enormous ability. Gets a start here and off this draw can sit up in about 6th spot, with cover, smoking his pipe and waiting for a run to come. Not opposed to pushing horses out of the way to get a run or coming up along the fence either. Drops 6kg from last start WFA 7th when beaten 1.3lengths by Anamoe. Big hope.
22. BANKERS CHOICE (15) 770261×636
T: Michael Moroney / J: Brock Ryan (51kg)
SCRATCHED.
23. DIAMIL (20) x881401x93
T: John O’Shea/ J: Reece Jones (50kg)
SCRATCHED
24. PRIDE OF JENNI (14) 0x71537x42
T; Ciaron Maher & Dave Eustace /J:- (50kg)
SCRATCHED
