Preview – Melbourne Cup

Brilliant stayer who just loves this track and the sting out of the ground. And, he is racing in career best form which is ominous considering he raced a little wide for a good part of last year’s Melb Cup yet still flew home to win impressively. He ran fast time to win the Gr 1 Turnbull over 2000m this prep, then was a game 3rd to Without A Fight in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup and meets that galloper a kilo better here, then last start ran a terrific 5th in a very strong Cox Plate. Should be right in this finish and is a must for your numbers.

Former star Gr 1 winner in Ireland beating the brilliant State Of Rest at the Curragh last year. Has also run a super fast, world class time for 2000m on a synthetic track, and has twice run in the Arc de Triomphe. So, his history says he is a threat but since coming to Australia 5 starts back he has barely beaten a runner home. Plugged home past tired horses last start when 9th to Cleveland in the Moonee Valley Cup over 2400m. Not keen.

Just looks the winner for mine. He has been given an immaculate prep for this and last start, which wasn’t his Grand Final, he stormed home to win the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m in very fast time beating the likes of Gold Trip, Breakup, Right You Are and Soulcombe home. He is a gun on a good track and performs well if it’s wet too. From this gate I see him dropping back to be around 12th or so throughout the middle stages, hopefully getting in one off the fence, and his power and big heart will swoop him into the race at the clocktower. If he’s there as I see it mapping, he runs away and wins.

Japanese visitor who might run a mighty race. Unlike many of these he has run over 3200m and when he did in Japan last April he ran a faster time than any of these runners. And it was no fluke as the start prior he ran 3000m in a world class 3:06 – which when converted to the 3200m of the Cup is 3:17 pace and that would win this race on a good track by 3 lengths. He moved into the race on the bend in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup last start on Aussie debut but weakened final 100m when narrowly missing 3rd spot behind Without A Fight. Is definitely the dark horse this year.

Some really astute judges think he’s across the line. And the money has just not stopped since Saturday coming in for him especially after drawing so well. He’s carried 75.5kg in Gr 1 hurdle races and done well and he’s won at Royal Ascot on the flat under Ryan Moore with 61kg. Last start he easily won a Gr 3 at Naas over 2414m. Everything suggests he will win and his trainer has placed in the Melb Cup before. He’s a must to have in your numbers but my only little query is, can he sprint hard over the final 200m? He is very dour and tough.

Watch him. Have him in your numbers. He is smart and goes very well at this track. Showed his class when at WFA he ran a cracking 3rd in fast time behind the brilliant Alligator Blood in the Gr 1 Turnbull Stakes here over 2000m. Then raced evenly when doing best work late finishing 7th in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup. He was near the rear when turning for home. Is going to test these.

Irish star who is the highly gifted stablemate of the Cup fav Vauban. He carried 61kg under Frankie Dettori a few starts back when 2nd to Vauban over 2800m at Royal Ascot. Last start he carried 60.5kg to win the Ebor in York and that’s always been a good lead up to this race. Obviously can stay, is tough and has drawn perfectly.

What am I missing here? This bloke should be a $16 chance yet everyone has him at around $61 and even better. I will back him each way. He loves a good track and he goes well here. Last start he ran a great and courageous 5th from a bad gate in a very strong Gr 1 Caulfield Cup. Can he run two miles at this level? Who knows, but his trainer won this race last year so knows how to get ’em fit. Great each way bet for mine.

Well, wouldn’t this be just the biggest fairytale if he could win. Is now an 8YO but he is racing in near best career form shown in his past two starts when a cracking 2nd in the Gr 1 Caulfield Stakes in good time over 2000m and then last start a strong finishing 2nd to Cleveland in the MV Cup over 2400m. Of course, he did win this race back in 2019 and has run twice in this race since, best last year when 10th. Weighted to win and came from gate 21 when he did win this race.

Horrible draw here is a worry and I guess he drops back looking for cover. Former Irish star now with Kris Lees at Newcastle and has done nothing but get better with each of his 5 starts for Lees. This came thundering to a great celebration when he flew home last start in good time to win the Gr 2 Moonee Valley Cup over 2400m beating Vow and Declare and Future History. Drops 3.5kg but that draw is a worry.

Interesting galloper. Can stay and was 10th in this race – back in 2020! Has only had 3 runs since and they have all been this year. Each one was better than the other culminating in a narrow defeat in the $500k Geelong Cup over 2400m last start. Is now fit and ready to run a big race. Will be ridden by 2 x Melb Cup winning jock Kerrin McEvoy and drops 5kg on last start’s top run.

Good stayer and has been prepared very astutely for this. Did win the 3200m Adelaide Cup comfortably in slow time last year then on a heavy track ran a great 3rd in the 3200m Gr 1 Sydney Cup. Last year he really stretched out boldly in the wet in the Melb Cup to finish 6th. He has followed the same prep for this and has even drawn the same gate as last year. Can run a place.

Stayer from Ireland with talent but this should test. Sat well back at Aussie debut in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m and didn’t really come on when beaten 10 lengths into 12th spot. This is even harder. Not keen.

Is a get back and run on galloper but he just doesn’t seem fast enough. Hasn’t run a place in any of his past 5 lead up races and that’s not good form leading into this. And it’s a strong field this year.

Top class, world class in fact rated mare from France. Is now with Mick Price and Michael Kent and is coming along nicely. Loves it wet. Grows a leg in fact. She has won up to 3100m at Longchamps in slow time but at Gr 3 level. Bad draw here is a worry because we just don’t know where she goes – back or forward? If she goes forward she may be very wide around that first turn and then will need to use a lot of gas to find a decent spot. To be safe, have her in your numbers.

Former Irish galloper now with Chris waller but hasn’t fired a shot in 5 Aussie runs. Probably runs last in this.

Has been up a while so is very fit and he is extremely honest. I think he rates as a great light weight hope here. Carried 54kg to run a record in winning the Gr 3 Newcastle Cup over 2300m making ground late. Then was a good 4th in the Gr 1 Metrop also in record time before coming to Melbourne and finishing like a train to claim the Gr 2 Herbert Power over 2400m. Has a ‘finishing the race hard’ mentality and has a great draw which ensures he will be right there turning for home.

Good stayer and back when he lived in in England, he won the prestigious English Derby by 5 lengths. That was 3 years ago but since joining the Gai and Adrian camp here, has steadily improved and rates a light weight chance in this – as long as it’s not wet. Beaten 2 lengths when 3rd to Future History in the Gr 3 Bart Cummings last start over 2500m. Probably goes forward from this superb gate and may even lead them. Drops 7kg from last start and meets Future History 3kg better.

After a career best performance on a very heavy track to run 2nd in the Gr 1 ATC Derby earlier this year over 2400m, he’s been thrashed and not run a place in 4 subsequent lead-up races to this. Not keen even if he had a head start.

Irish galloper who has won over 3381m before being sent to Sydney’s Chris Waller’s yard. Only start for him was a handy 5th in the Geelong Cup making good ground late. Can stay and has a lot of talent, but this may be too soon this year.

This bloke is a genuine lightweight hope. He likes to get up on the steel and be in the vanguard all the way. And he’s tough. Showed that when leading all the way to win the Gr 3 Bart Cummings here over 2520m from First Immortal and Serpentine. Then, oddly, was ridden off the pace when a narrowly beaten 3rd to Cleveland and Vow and Declare in the Gr 2 Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. They ran fast time that day. Hollie Doyle, the Queen of European’s jockey ranks, flies in to ride him and he drops 6kg from his gallant last start.

Strong stayer who has raced in the Cup before and was well beaten. Has improved since then though and showed that last start when up in 3rd spot all the way he just bobbed best to win the 2400m Bendigo Cup in fast time. Drops 4.5kg but goes up a very long way in class. Probably runs about 12th.

Ridden to absolute perfection by Melbourne Cup winning jockey Damien Oliver on Saturday and got the cash in the $303,000 Gr 3 Archer over 2500m. That secured him a start in this. He is super fit and very much in form and on top of that drops 6kg. Now, this is harder but he’s a genuine lightweight hope and the Bart Cummings method was to race on the Saturday before the Cup.

Truth be known, he’s just not fast enough. Best effort in some time was a distant 3rd in the 3200m Brisbane Cup back in June but in 4 subsequent starts – hasn’t run a place and this is even harder. No chance.