Gr 1 – Queensland Derby

Ric Chapman has looked over this Gr 1 Derby several times, done all the form and wow, he thinks it is VERY even. But, he's found his top 4 home.

1. Firm Agreement (6)

J: N Rawiller T: Annabel & R Archibald

Deserves a win in a big race. Was a game and strong finishing 2nd in the recent Gr 1 ATC Derby at Randwick, then was again runner-up in the always strong Frank Packer Plate. Didn’t do much in the mud last start at Doomben but is clearly a lot better. Has claims in a very open Derby.

PB Rating 9
Last 5 72220
Win $15.00 Place $4.40
  • In Form

2. Imperialist (15)

J: T Berry T: C Waller

Shocked everyone leading all the way at $51 last start in a crucial Gr 3 lead up over 2000m. That was in the mud but he did it and is back in form. Was thrashed in the Gr 1 ATC Derby though. Has to be considered on easy last start win.

PB Rating 8
Last 5 32091
Win $19.00 Place $5.50
  • Good on Soft

3. Statuario (5)

J: J Allen T: Emma-Lee & D Browne

Is a very good stayer from Victoria and can run this trip right out. Did so easily in 2400m stakes race at Caulfield before running his heart out when beaten less than a length in the Gr 1 SA Derby last start over 2500m behind the filly Femminile. Must be strongly fancied.

PB Rating 9
Last 5 50312
Win $5.00 Place $2.05
  • Ready to Fire

4. King Of Thunder (14)

J: M Zahra T: J O'Shea & T Charlton

Has drawn a little awkwardly here but if he slots in he looks very hard to beat. Has done everything right this year, 3rd in Gr 2 Tulloch over 2000m, 5th in Gr 1 ATC Derby over 2400m, and last start 3rd in the mud behind Imperialist. Big show.

PB Rating 9.1
Last 5 71353
Win $8.50 Place $3.00
  • In Form

5. Beau Dazzler (8)

Best Value
J: J Guthmann-Chest T: Tony & M Sears

Will be huge odds but may be the knock out horse. Is 3rd up here. Last prep was winning everything in weaker grade and carrying weight. Not far away when 8th in the mud behind Imperialist. Can stay so have in your numbers.

PB Rating 8.8
Last 5 11x38
Win $31.00 Place $8.00
  • Ready to Fire

6. Lavalier (11)

Best Value
J: J Melham T: J Cummings

He’s had 5 starts this campaign and has been right there in all the races of importance leading into this including the Gr 1 SA Derby when 3rd. Is rock hard fit, loves a big track and so deserves a win.

PB Rating 9
Last 5 56223
Win $13.00 Place $4.20
  • In Form

7. Politely Dun (22)

J: J Childs T: D O'Brien

Interesting runner. Has drawn poorly so probably drifts back early looking to slot in. Is on the rise and can motor home late. Did so in a 3YO at Flemington over 2000m on a soft track and won easily. This is harder but he’s bred to stay all day and no surprise to see him swamp these late.

PB Rating 9.1
Last 5 68421
Win $21.00 Place $6.50
  • In Form

8. Deep Focus (18)

J: M Rodd T: P Shailer

Is lightly raced but does have a lot of talent and loves it being wet. Stormed home at $81 last start when a closing 2nd over 2000m in the mud to Imperialist in the Gr 3. Is very fit and if he finds a spot he may well be a player late in this finish.

PB Rating 8.7
Last 5 22532
Win $26.00 Place $7.00
  • Good on Soft

9. Our Benefactor (7)

J: N Callow T: B Laming

This may be a prep too soon but he looks like developing into a really nice horse. Held on gamely when 5th to Imperialist last start start in the Gr 3. Trip may test.

PB Rating 7.2
Last 5 Q6955
Win $31.00 Place $8.00
  • Likes Dry Track

10. Maison Louis (4)

J: B Melham T: J O'Shea & T Charlton

Smart young horse who is getting better and stronger with racing. After carrying 59.5 to win a 1900m BM 64 at Canterbury, trekked north, raced in the mud for the first time and ran in a stakes race for the first time – yet finished well for 4th to Imperialist over 2000m. Looks to be on the rise.

PB Rating 8.7
Last 5 12114
Win $20.00 Place $6.00
  • Ready to Fire

11. Scintillante (19)

J: B Egan T: C Brown

Bad draw makes it tough as he will probably race wide. Did run a mighty 4th in the recent Gr 1 SA Derby so can stay. Place ticket if he can get a nice run.

PB Rating 8
Last 5 41304
Win $41.00 Place $11.00
  • Good on Soft

12. Saint Emilion (12)

J: T Clark T: C Maher

seems to be a few lengths inferior when in Gr 1 level. This should test.

PB Rating 6
Last 5 x0847
Win $41.00 Place $11.00
  • Likes Dry Track

13. Party Crasher (1)

J: C Williams T: M Hickmott

Drawn to be about 4th on the fence, poised and conserving energy from the get go. This is considerably harder than recent runaway wins in Adelaide but is is improving every start. He is also bred to run the trip and is very fit. Must be considered.

PB Rating 8.3
Last 5 21211
Win $12.00 Place $3.70
  • In Form

14. Rogan (20)

J: C Schofield T: C Brown

Horrible draw but he does go back so probably mitigates that. Thrown in here after a stunning win in a 2000m 3YO hcp at Caulfield last start when $41. Up in grade here but clearly has talent and can stay. Place show.

PB Rating 8
Last 5 x6141
Win $71.00 Place $18.00
  • Likes Dry Track

15. Existential Bob (13)

J: J Collett T: C Waller

Is up in class on previous runs but is improving with every run. AND, most importantly, he has led all the way to win easily at his past 2 starts – both on heavy tracks. Should go forward and may take some catching if the ground is very wet.

PB Rating 7.5
Last 5 34211
Win $41.00 Place $11.00
  • Good on Soft

16. Femminile (9)

J: B Shinn T: P Stokes

Fascinating filly. Can clearly stay as she showed last start when backed from $31 into $18 and stormed home from midfield to claim the SA Derby over 2500m. Freshened for this. Now, if she repeats that effort she can win this. Is getting better with racing.

PB Rating 8.6
Last 5 x0671
Win $8.00 Place $2.80
  • In Form

17. Belle Detelle (21)

J: J Mcdonald T: C Waller

Badly drawn and that is a major worry this journey. Did win the Gr 3 Adrian Knox at Randwick over 2000m in the wet, then nice 5th in the Gr 1 ATC Oaks before copping a great deal of mud in the face yet finishing on for 6th to stablemate Imperialist in the Gr 3 Rough Habit last start. Will like Eagle Farm and Jay Mac has picked her over the other Waller runners to ride. Has claims.

PB Rating 8.3
Last 5 31156
Win $7.50 Place $2.60
  • Place Performer

18. Chase Your Dreams (16)

J: E Brown T: B, W & J Hayes

Good Vic filly who races with a great deal of honesty. Bolted in at Echuca over 2100m then ran a great race for a closing 2nd over 2500m against fillies last start. This is harder but is consistent. Place.

PB Rating 8.3
Last 5 12512
Win $21.00 Place $6.50
  • Place Performer

19. Eclair Encore (Em1) (10)

J: A Mallyon T: K Lees

Another very honest filly who loves racing and is racing well in much weaker grade. Plodded home when 2nd in the mud at Ipswich last start. Probably finds this tough though.

PB Rating 7.2
Last 5 32212
Win $41.00 Place $11.00
  • In Form

20. The Muffin Man (Em2) (17)

J: E Brown T: C Littlefield

Racing well in weaker grade including 3rd to Rogan last start at Caulfield over 2000m. May struggle late at this level.

PB Rating 7.1
Last 5 x3123
Win $21.00 Place $7.00
  • In Form

21. Liberty Park (Em3) (23)

J: R Maloney T: C Waller

Poorly drawn and hasn’t shown that he’s up to this grade.

PB Rating 5
Last 5 x9160
Win $126.00 Place $26.00
  • Good on Soft

22. Prince Levi (Em4) (2)

J: Not Notified T: W Kropp

Not showing enough to suggest the trip suits. Has talent though but in 3 runs here hasn’t shown up.

PB Rating 5.7
Last 5 14620
Win $151.00 Place $31.00
  • Likes Dry Track

23. San Jose Boy (Em5) (3)

J: Not Notified T: J Bruce

Consistent campaigner who runs honestly but in much weaker grade. The trip and grade should test him.

PB Rating 6
Last 5 42152
Win $151.00 Place $31.00
  • Good on Soft

First 4

1. Statuario, 2. Politely Dun, 3. Lavalier, 4. Beau Dazzler

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On This Race

* PB rating based on form analysts’ opinion.