Gr 1 – Melbourne Cup Preview

Failed last year but has been extremely well tried in markets since the weekend to atone this year. And he looks a great hope after drawing well. Will not know what’s going on with this small weight as he carried 62 kg last start in the Gr 1 St leger at The Curragh in Ireland over 2816m and was a grand 2nd to the brilliant Kyprios. Looks beautifully in this year and must be in your numbers.

Is the form horse in the field and on that score alone rates the one to beat. Made a run under 58kg with 325m to travel in the 2000m Gr 1 Turnbull Stakes here 2 starts back and really flew to the line. On his inside that day, carrying 57kg was Via Sistina who made her run with 325m to go also. They went stride for stride to the wire, she winning by a nose. She next came out and won the Gr 1 Cox Plate by 8 lengths while this bloke next came out and giving everything weight, charged late to run 2nd in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup over 2400m. Should have won that day. Speaking of winning, is yet to win past 1800m but is seasoned now and is the best horse in the race.

Carried 51.5kg back in April to easily win the Gr 1 Sydney Cup over this distance from Athabascan. Form in 3 runs since hasn’t been good but often form goes out the window on Cup day. Can stay, has last year’s winning rider on board and probably goes forward from this gate to be up on speed. Cheeky place hope.

Star Japanese stayer who has drawn a gate this time. In his Aussie debut in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup last start, he sat wide all the way and was soundly thrashed finishing 13th and about 14 lengths behind Buckaroo. Goes substantially better when track is dry. Should improve as he has run 3200m faster than any of his rivals.

Very interesting runner as he has taken a different path to this race than the others. Ran good time when unlucky 4th in the Gr1 Epsom over a mile, then carried 59kg when narrowly beaten in the 1900m Gr 2 Hill Stakes where he should have won before running a fast last 600m when 6th to Via Sistina in the Gr 1 Cox Plate. The trip is his worry but is smart on his day.

Kiwi stayer who was a champion 3YO but just doesn’t seem to be putting in like he did now that he’s a 5YO. At the weights and if he were at his best, he’d nearly win this. Carried 59kg when making good ground late and 3rd in the Gr 2 Moonee Valley Cup behind Okita Soushi. This is a step up and probably battles away into about 10th spot.

Is the likely leader and is a Gr 1 winner over 2400m but he’ll be in trouble by the time they turn for home and is one of the favs to finish last.

Has to be strongly fancied as he can stay all day. Last year easily won the 2600m St Leger at Randwick and was put away for this prep. So far this time up he has won the Gr 1 Metrop running down a brave Zardozi on the wire and last start ran a mighty race for 3rd in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup. Is in career-best form, in a Cup-winning stable and is weighted to win. Big show.

Is very tough but may not have the speed to test the best ones here. Mind you, he has carried upwards of 75.5kg in races back in Ireland so this postage stamp will be appreciated. Is the travelling companion of Vauban and isn’t expected to be in the finish. Can stay though. Saying that, did win a 2916m stakes race in England last start and has been working well.

Classy stayer and has been kept under the radar for this. Drew gate 2 when a narrow but solid winner of the 2600m St Leger at Randwick last start beating Wyclif who was a tragedy beaten last Saturday at Rosehill. Did run a bold 2nd in the Gr 1 Sydney Cup this journey back in April to Circles Of Fire and meets that horse a few kilos better this time. Place hope at odds.

Living the dream of being in this race and has drawn well but in reality he doesn’t rate a winning hope at all. Finishes near last.

Carried 51.5kg when 11th in this race last year after being near the rear turning for home. Seasoned now and is in form. Last start was near speed all the way and was simply too strong late winning the Gr 2 Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m in handy time with 55kg. Is peaking for this and can stay. Drawn to receive a great run and is a player this year.

If he gets cover in the run he looks a major player. Has the in form Craig Williams on board who recently won the Gr 1 The Everest over 1200m. Anyway, last start on Aussie debut, this Englishman just won for fun the 2400m Geelong Cup which is often a great lead-up race to this. Carries no weight nd is thriving in Australia. Big show.

Top class mare who looks a great chance in this. Firstly, she can stay and is a Gr 1 winner over 2500m. Was beaten a nostril by Land Legend in a fast run Gr 1 Metrop over 2400m, racing wide, carrying 1kg more than him, then ran a terrific 4th in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup before given a freshen up and running a great 5th last Saturday over a mile in the Gr 1 Empire Rose. Drawn to get the run of the race and does love this track. Wins this race if the track is wet.

Drawn the fence so he punches up and is in the top 5 from the get-go. Which is perfect. Last start raced that way on Aussie debut and ran away in fast time to effortlessly win the Bendigo Cup over 2400m under 54.5kg. This is harder but is absolutely flying at present and no surprise to see him be right in this finish. Has won over 2639m.

Wide draw here is a worry. Did run a bold race when 6th in this race last year. His 3 subsequent runs have been poor, however. Best of them was last start when 9th, finishing 11 lengths behind Buckaroo in the Gr 1 Caulfield Cup. Has been racing rearward this prep and probably goes back from this gate which means he gives a lot of smart horses headstarts turning for home. Not overly keen.

Another one flying under the radar and he can stay. Plugged on gamely when 3rd and still not wound up in the Gr 2 Herbert Power over 2400m behind Herman Hesse and Okita Soushi, then ran a corker of a race into 6th in the Gr 1 Caulfiled Cup. Awkward draw is an issue though but he could very well, with no weight here, push up and be with the leaders.

Has been slowly rounding into form and has had a few starts over trips to get him there this prep. Showed benefits of it last start when getting home well from a mile back and 2nd to Onesmoothoperator in the Gr 3 Geelong Cup. Can stay but this still looks too hard.

Has won up to 2500m but over the past year, every time he steps past 2400m he struggles. Beaten nearly 4 lengths last start when weakening 7th to Okita Soushu in Gr 2 Moonee Valley Cup. Not keen.

Has no weight and can stay having won over 3313m back in Europe. Form had been progressing well in his Aussie starts until last start when he drew wide, went back early and just did not run on here at all over 2500m in the Bart Cummings behind Just Fine. was 2nd earlier this year in the Gr 2 Brisbane Cup over 3200m. Not keen.

Solid, tough Group winning mare who will carry no weight but will probably have to drive forward from this horror gate. Was on speed when too strong in the 2000m Gr 3 Naturalism in average time and again last start when 2nd for home but this time weakening to finish 8th in the 2500m MV Cup. Not really all that keen as trip will test.

If you have your money on this bloke you wont miss him – he’s a big grey horse, the only one in the field. And he can stay although this grade may test. Was beaten 7 lengths by Just Fine over 2500m when out in time and only plodding late before similar when beaten 3 lengths by Okita Soushi over 2500m in MV Cup. Probably finishes midfield.

My guess is that from this horror draw she drops out and runs with the tailenders for a good portion of the race. But make no bones about this – the mare can stay and with no weight on her back she may pick off a lot of these late. I don’t think she can win but it wouldn’t be a shock to see her rattle home at massive odds into the top 5.

Kiwi outsider but must confess, I dreamt he won the race! Because of that I’ll have a small wager on him because he can stay all day and is very, very well weighted. Drawn perfectly too. Was a fast closing 4th to Land Legend and Zardozi in the Gr 1 Metrop and meets them both 3kg better and last start on speed, led for home when close up 4th with 57.5kg in the 2600m St Leger. Handles wet or dry ground and should be considered as he will get an absolute dream run just behind the speed when most of these will not.