The 2024-25 Premier League season kicks on into Matchday 17, and we’re here with five top-shelf EPL tips for the weekend ahead.
Crystal Palace v Arsenal
This one shapes as a bludger.
Crystal Palace are one of the most disappointing teams in the EPL this season to be 15th with only three wins. Meanwhile, Arsenal haven’t lived up to the hype. They’re still well and truely in the mix to win the league, but now sit six points behind Liverpool at the top.
Notably, Arsenal have now gone three games without a goal in open play. They’re hugely reliant on set piece, and while Martin Ødegaard and Bakayo Saka pack one of the most dangeours one-two punches in the league, it hasn’t translated into goals recently.
Crystal Palace, while not picking up wins, have performed relatively well defensively. They’re middling in the league in expected goals against, and among the better teams when playing at home. They look a tough nut to crack for an Arsenal side struggling to create good chances.
Arsenal are $1.55 favourites and expected to leave Selhurst with all three points, but it looks unlikely that we see three or more goals between two teams grinding through poor patches of form.
Bet Now Total Score - Under 2.5 Goals @ $1.90Brentford v Nottingham Forest
Gtech Community Stadium is a home for goals.
Brentford has scored an EPL-high 26 goals while playing at home this season. Their run of early goals created history earlier in the Premier League season. Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa are among the most reliable attacking players in the league right now. However, their 14 goals against is the fourth-most conceded at home.
They have managed to win seven of their eight home matches despite the leaky defence, but Nottingham Forest present a tough challenge. Forest are one of the surprise teams of the EPL season and fighting for a spot in Europe. They’re tough, consistent and capable of making the most of limited opportunities with the clinical Chris Wood up front.
Forest are no fluke. They’ve just beaten Manchester United and Aston Villa. Their only defeats on the road this season have been against Manchester City and Arsenal.
Nuno Espirito Santo has Forest playing a reliable brand of football. They’re positioned well to make the most of Brentford’s defence and hand them a first home defeat of the season.
Bet Now Draw No Bet - Nottingham Forest @ $1.96Ipswich Town v Newcastle
Ipswich Town forced Wolves into sacking Gary O’Neil last week following their 2-1 win. While a valuable three points in their quest to avoid relegation, they look set to struggle against an in-form Newcastle on Matchday 17.
They thumped Leicester 4-0 before beating Brentford 3-1 in the EFL Cup mid-week. Newcastle’s 3.78 expected goals against Leicester is their highest xG total in an league game this season. Jacob Murphy bagged a pair while Bruno Guimaraes and Alexander Isak scored the other two. Newcastle could have scored more on the day, too. They should find plenty of success against an Ipswich defensive line that has allowed 33.31 expected goals this season – third-most in the EPL.
That technique. 😮💨🇮🇹 pic.twitter.com/eZUrjxIKF6
— Newcastle United (@NUFC) December 18, 2024
With Liam Delap picking up a yellow card in that 2-1 win, he misses this one due to suspension. He has scored six goals this season to be their most potent attacking weapon. In fact, he’s accounted for 37.5% of Ipswich’s goals on his own. It’s difficult to see them putting anything past Newcastle.
Newcastle, on the other hand, shouldn’t have many issues. Isak, in particular, looks primed to add to his tally at $1.82. He has contributed to 12 goals in 11 matches against promoted teams in the EPL (10 goals, 2 assists).
Bet Now Newcastle Win to Nil @ $3.08Manchester United v AFC Bournemouth
Manchester United are improved under Ruben Amorim.
The results aren’t always showing as much. Their 4-2 loss to Tottenham mid-week flatters them in the end. Both United goals came courtesy of Fraser Forster blunders. However, there is renewed hope around the club. The path forward isn’t going to be easy, but Amorim has at least mapped one out.
Meanwhile, Bournemouth seem to have a map to the opposition goal every week at the moment. While their 24 goals scored this season ranks 8th in the EPL, only Chelsea have generated more expected goals than Bournemouth’s 32.4. Only Arsenal (+12.6) can lay claim to a better expected goal difference than the Cherries, too (+12.3).
"If you don't give the man a chance, you don't see this"
Thiery Henry discusses the work that Andoni Iraola has done at Bournemouth 🫡 pic.twitter.com/T93Mmczchd
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) December 16, 2024
Bournemouth won’t die wondering with the ball. They’ve managed more than 20 shots in each of their last three games while only Manchester City have attempted more shots (282) all season than Bournemouth’s 270.
Amorim is still working things out with his back-three. United are susceptible to conceding at the moment. With the prolific nature of Bournemouth’s attack, expect them to sneak a few past the keeper and make a game of it.
Bet Now Draw or Bournemouth Win @ $1.82Manchester City v Aston Villa
We’ve benefited plenty from Manchester City’s slump in recent weeks. The well will run dry fairly soon, but Matchday 17 presents another opportunity.
“Guardiola spoke of City needing to “survive” this season before rebuilding in the next. The cracks started to show months ago, but two goals in two minutes from arch rival Manchester United have opened them right up.” – City’s Slump
Manchester City have lost eight of their last 11 matches in all competitions. It’s the same number of defeats as their previous 106 matches. Worse still, they’ve conceded two or more goals in 10 of their last 11 games. Despite leading the EPL in possession with 62.7%, City look lost without the ball. Their mid-field is a shambles in defence and Youri Tielemans looks set to benefit for Aston Villa this week. He’s created the third-most chances in the EPL this season. Only Bakayo Saka and Cole Palmer have registered more assists.
Bet Now Youri Tielemans to Score or Assist @ $4.50Highest performing midfielders in the Premier League so far this season 🎯
🇪🇨 87 — Moisés Caicedo (Chelsea, 23)
🇵🇹 87 — Bruno Fernandes (Man United, 30)
🇳🇱 82 — Ryan Gravenberch (Liverpool, 22)
🇧🇪 80 — Youri Tielemans (Aston Villa, 27)
🇧🇷 79 — Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle, 27)
🇬🇭… pic.twitter.com/AUr6V6hPPt— DataMB (@DataMB_) December 18, 2024