The 2024-25 Premier League season kicks on into Matchday 9, and we’re here with five top-shelf EPL tips for the weekend ahead.
Chelsea v Newcastle
Newcastle have struggled for results over the last month but hasn’t performed as poorly as their four-game winless run suggests.
A 3-1 defeat to Fulham, a 1-1 draw with Manchester City, and a scoreless draw with Everton had already left a sour taste. The 1-0 loss to Brighton and Hove Albion—in a match they otherwise dominated—has Newcastle scrambling.
Incredibly frustrating day for #NUFC. Looked a more than decent side for 35 minutes (yes yes missed chances yes yes) but Brighton were solid & composed from that point & Newcastle became far less controlled. Performances and / or results – there’s consistently something missing.
— George Caulkin (@GeorgeCaulkin) October 19, 2024
However, improvement is on the horizon. The numbers say it is, anyway.
From an xG perspective, Newcastle scored six goals on 5.29 expected goals in their first four games of the EPL season (+0.71). In their last four, however, they’ve found the net just twice on 7.18 expected goals (-5.18).
Newcastle’s end product has been letting them down of late. Against Brighton, in particular. But they’re creating chances. Chelsea have proven to be a solid defensive team. They’ve conceded only eight goals in seven matches, and their 7.1 xG against is among the best in the EPL. Still, Newcastle carry the value if they can finally start to capitalise on the good chances they’re creating.
Bet Now Newcastle United or Draw @ $1.88
West Ham v Manchester United
Siding with Manchester United doesn’t sit comfortably at the moment. It sits similar to Tottenham Hotspur being $1.80 to win against a winless Crystal Palace. There is every chance they bottle it.
However, West Ham are that bad at the moment.
In a game that meant so much to the club and their fans against Tottenham last week, the Hammers conceded four and ended the match with 10 men due to a frustration-induced red card. They’ve now conceded 11 goals this season and have only one clean sheet in their last 26 Premier League games.
In 2024 the Hammers have conceded 2.19 goals per game from a sample size of 27 fixtures. It's the most of any ever-present Premier League team over that period. That's relegation numbers.https://t.co/szSxqZYHK2
— Jason (@SportsJO13) October 24, 2024
Manchester United have their own problems, but creating chances hasn’t always been one of them. Despite only scoring five goals this season, their 11.11 xG ranks 8th in the EPL. No team has recorded a bigger discrepancy in goals vs xG than United’s -6.11.
Sure to get plenty of chances against this leaky West Ham, Manchester United look good to start shrinking that discrepancy while taking the points.
Bet Now Manchester United to Win @ $2.25
Arsenal v Liverpool
We have to get something down on one of the biggest games of the EPL season.
There could have massive implications on the title race when it is all said and done.
Liverpool are on top of the Premier League ladder but on the third line of betting to win it at $3.75. Meanwhile, Arsenal entered the season among the favourites, and remain there at $3.30, but sit four points behind the leaders at third on the ladder.
Plenty is being made about Arsenal’s red card situation despite their latest being stone-cold. Few would argue against Wiliam Saliba being sent from the field in Matchday 8. However, those three red cards seem to be referenced a lot when explaining away Arsenal’s slow start. There has been more to it, though. Even at full-strength they’ve not looked like they did last season.
“If anything, the red cards are an easy out for what has been an unconvincing start to the Premier League season. While they’re without key players, Arsenal are lacking creativity. They’re struggling to deal with adversity, which, with how they’re playing now, is made even more of an issue.” – Arsenal Seeing Red
Meanwhile, Liverpool have passed every test thrown at them. Their draw to date hasn’t been the toughest. Still, they beat an in-form Chelsea last week and are comfortably the best defensive team in the EPL, conceding only two goals.
Liverpool doesn’t allow the opposition to get off many shots. Only Manchester City and Tottenham have allowed more. That is likely to frustrate Arsenal, and, as we know, they don’t respond particularly well to adversity at the moment.
Bet Now Liverpool to Win @ $2.70
Aston Villa v AFC Bournemouth
AFC Bournemouth are bouncing into this one following a 2-0 win over Arsenal but face a tough task against Aston Villa at Villa Park.
While Bournemouth picked up the win last week, it doesn’t hide the fact they’re struggling for goals at the moment. They have only eight in eight games and have taken to the approach of simply firing as many shots off as they can, hoping for the best.
Only Manchester City (156) and Tottenham (145) have attempted more shots than Bournemouth’s 128. The difference is City and Spurs have turned them into 19 and 16 goals at 12% and 11% conversion rates, respectively. Bournemouth, on the other hand, have converted only 7% of their chances to be among the worst in the EPL.
Meanwhile, Villa does well to limit the shots of their opposition. They’ve allowed only 81 all season and have conceded 2.07 goals above xG in the process. This is a better defensive team than some numbers suggest while Villa have scored two goals in five of their last six matches.
The home side should get the job done here.
Bet Now Aston Villa to Win @ $1.85
Crystal Palace v Tottenham
For as well as Tottenham played in their dominant 4-1 win over West Ham last week, you can’t help but feel uneasy about them against a winless Crystal Palace.
It’s a London Derby after a good game against a desperate opposition with little expected of them.
Spursy.
However, even if Tottenham can’t get the result they should, Brennan Johnson looks primed to get shots off.
Brennan Johnson has more Carries into the Penalty Area than any other 2001+ player in Europe's Big Five Leagues this season.
Data via @fbref. pic.twitter.com/a78rw5Oto2
— SCOUTED (@scoutedftbl) October 18, 2024
Tottenham will dominate possession regardless. They rank 2nd behind Manchester City with 61.6% while Palace are in the bottom half of the league below 50%. With it, they lead the EPL in pasess played into the opponent penalty area and expected goals.
Johnson, in particular, is one of the most active players in the Premier League in the box. Only Mo Salah and Bernardo Silva have recorded more touches in the attacking penalty area than Johnson’s 61 this season.
He’s Tottenham’s leading scorer this season and has taken the most shots. The Welshman looks good to add to his tally this week.