The 2024-25 Premier League season kicks on into Matchday 4, and we’re here with five top-shelf EPL tips for the weekend ahead.
Chelsea v West Ham
Chelsea have been somewhat lucky to win early on this season.
Their big win over 6-2 victory over Wolves wasn’t as dominant as the final score suggested.
Last week, it took a late individual effort from Christopher Nkunku to get past Bournemouth 1-0. West Ham profile well as a team Chelsea will back themselves against, though.
If nothing else, Chelsea have been fantastic in front of goal. No team in the EPL is making more of their opportunities than Chelsea. Their 2.15 goals vs XG is comfortably the highest in the league ahead of Manchester City’s 1.72 at second. Give Chelsea a chance, and they will take it.
West Ham gives up plenty of chances. They do well to defend them, with only 8.22% converted into goals, but they have given up 73 shots through four games—the most in the EPL. The Hammers gave up three goals to Manchester City earlier and struggle to keep possession. They’re not particularly strong at defending against counterattacks, an area in which Chelsea thrives.
It won’t be long before Chelsea’s numbers start to level out. Particularly the goals v XG number. However, it won’t be this week against a West Ham side that will allow them good looks at goal.
Bet Now CHELSEA TO WIN @ $2.05Tottenham v Brentford
It took 88 minutes in their third-round tie with Coventry for the goals to come, but two in four minutes secured the win and should see Tottenham’s fortunes in the EPL change.
No team plays with more possession that Tottenham. For better or worse, they’re in control of the ball for 67% of the match. They move the ball and themselves around the field to starve the opposition. They’re getting 15.8 shots per 90 minutes away to rank 4th in the Premier League and are alongside Manchester City for most shots on target per 90 with six. Where they’re falling short is in the quality. Tottenham’s 0.09 xg per shot is among the bottom four in the league.
However, they’ll take some confidence out of their Carabao Cup victory.
Late drama in the @Carabao_Cup!
Highlights: Coventry City 1-2 Spurs 📺 pic.twitter.com/pbT8SXZy5H
— Tottenham Hotspur (@SpursOfficial) September 18, 2024
They face a Brentford side that put up a good fight against Manchester City on Matchday 3, but leave themselves open to conceding goals. They’re without a clean sheet so far this EPL season. A lot comes down to the shots they’re giving up. Only West Ham have allowed the opposition to take more shots that Brentford’s 69, but no team has seen more on target than their 27.
If Tottenham are to shoot their way out of this slump, it has to be this week. The pressure is on Spurs and Ange Postecoglou. Expect them to respond at home where they typically perform a lot better.
Bet Now TOTTENHAM TO WIN @ $1.50Leicester City v Everton
Sometimes, you just have to take the easy one…
It’s difficult to imagine this game being low-scoring.
Jamie Vardy still knows how to find the back of the net and will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing an Everton defence that leaks goals in bunches. Vardy has scored six times in 14 appearances against Everton and is at $2.30 to add another to his tally this week.
Meanwhile, Everton has led 2-0 in back-to-back losses. They can score goals but have conceded 13 goals already this season, and a whopping 22% of the shots they allow end up in the net.
This game has huge implications for these two teams’ seasons. Expect both to go out shooting and, hopefully, scoring.
Bet Now TOTAL GOALS OVER 2.5 @ $1.80Southampton v Ipswich
The two newly promoted Premier League clubs go head-to-head in this one with both looking for their first win in the top flight.
Southampton have lost all four of their fixtures this season to Newcastle (1-0), Nottingham Forest (0-1), Brentford (3-1) and Manchester United (0-3). They play with a high amount of possession (62% – second most in the EPL) but have done little with it to have scored only one goal all season.
Meanwhile, Ipswich have picked up back-to-back draws against Fulham and Brighton following expected early-season defeats to Liverpool and Manchester City. In contrast to Southampton, they don’t get many shots away. Their 25 shots this season is by far the fewest in the Premier League.
Total shots (on target) via @OptaAnalyst:
1. Brighton – 67 (20)
2. Man City – 66 (25)
3. Bournemouth – 65 (22)
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18. Newcastle – 40 (15)
19. Leicester – 35 (14)
20. Ipswich – 25 (8)— Jason (@SportsJO13) September 19, 2024
Southampton created an early chance in their 3-0 loss to Manchester United last week but missed the penalty. There aren’t many positive to their defence, though. They’re without a clean sheet this season and will have Jack Stephens suspended for his reckless challange and red card last week.
While Ipswich haven’t been scintilating, they come into this one in better form. Nobody expected them to start the Premier League season with anything other than two losses. However, they’ve responded nicely with two draws while looking relatively sound in defence. Even last week they allowed Brighton 21 shots but kept finding ways to keep them out.
Neither team inspires confidence with the ball and Ipswich promises to be resolute in defence. It’s difficult to see many goals piling up here.
Bet Now TOTAL GOALS UNDER 2.5 @ $2Manchester City v Arsenal
Manchester City are significant $1.91 favourites to win the EPL title and are the benchmark of the league. Erling Haaland is in ridiculous form and unstoppable in front of goal. Pep Guardiola is arguably the best manager in world football.
Still, $4.40 is a big price for Arsenal this week.
Fresh off an impressive 1-0 win over Tottenham Hotspur last week, Arsenal are in strong form. They’re playing with one of the best centre defensive pairings in the world and despite only 37% possession last week, were able to make the most of their limited chances to take the points.
Notably, Arsenal have performed well away from home. They’ve won 10 of their last 11 fixtures away from the Emirates this year while conceding only three goals. Sure, City is a different beast. The optimism to at least walk away with a point is there, though.
City are the benchmark but not perfect. They conceded inside 30 seconds last week and have been caught out once or twice on the counterattack. Kevin de Bryne is unlikely to feautre in this one, too.
Manchester City fans seeing Kevin De Bruyne go off injured days before their clash with Arsenal 😬 pic.twitter.com/5F5tpS3c5z
— B/R Football (@brfootball) September 18, 2024
It’s an important clash in the context of the Premier League season. More important for Arsenal than it is Manchester City. Expect the visitors to come out firing and be in with a chance of victory through to the end.
Bet Now ARSENAL TO WIN OR DRAW @ $1.88