The 2024-25 Premier League season kicks on into Matchday 29, and we’re here with five top-shelf EPL tips for the weekend ahead.
Manchester City v Brighton & Hove Albion
We’ve picked Manchester City relatively well throughout the EPL season. Backing their downfall proved profitable and they’ve continued to pay out on the way back up. The 1-0 loss to Nottingham Forest on Matchday 28 came as a surprise, but it provides an opportunity for value here.
Brighton & Hove Albion are only one point behind City and in the hunt for European football. They’re one of the best and most entertaining teams in the EPL. However, they can struggle away from home and have never beaten City at the Etihad.
While Brighton have amassed a +4.8 expected goal difference at home, their -2.5 difference at home sums up the disparity in their performances. Meanwhile, City’s +10.9 expected goal difference at home is among the best in the EPL.
Brighton can leap the champions on the table with a win here, but City know they can’t rest in 5th and assume a spot in the Champions League. Expect Pep Guardiola’s side to produce at home and take the points.
Bet Now Manchester City to Win @ $1.65Southampton v Wolverhampton Wanderers
Southampton are on track to become the worst team in EPL history to have only nine points after 28 matches. Their relegation to the Championship is all but assured already at $1.01. Meanwhile, Wolves sit 17th on the table only six points clear of the drop.
It’s not a game that screams excitement on paper, but the numbers suggest we’re going to see a few goals.
Southampton have conceded 68 goals at 2.43 per game this season. Their EPL-high 7.18 shots on target conceded is significantly higher than Leicester in second with 5.82 per game. As a result of their leaky defence, each of Southampton’s last ten matches have finished with Over 2.5 goals.
To add to the goal-fest angle, Wolverhampton’s 71% strike rate on matches with Over 2.5 goals is the highest in the league. Send them on the road and that number jumps further to 79%.
Over 2.5 goals is worth exploring at $1.76, but given Wolves’ superior squad and Southampton’s consistent struggles, we’re adding a little more juice to the price by backing the visitors to take at least a point.
Bet Now Draw or Wolves & Over 2.5 Goals @ $2.50Everton v West Ham
Both of these teams were once part of the relegation conversation, but on the appointment of new managers, they’re up to 33 points and clear of the drop. It’s all about building for next season and finishing this one as high up the table as possible.
David Moyes has turned things around for Everton. A genuine chance of spending their last season at Goodison Park fighting a relegation battle, Everton have picked up the fourth-most points in the EPL since Moyes’ arrival. Meanwhile, Graham Potter has sured up the West Ham defence to have conceded only 1.13 goals per game – a significant improvement on their 1.95 goals conceded per game before he took over.
With two teams on the up and plenty to play for in this one, we’re looking at a close one. Everton are scoring well at the moment, and while West Ham have rebuilt their season on the back of their defence, they’ve managed to score in 12 of their 13 away games.
The draw appeals at $3.10 with it difficult to separate the two teams, but Both Teams to Score is the more reliable option here.
Bet Now Both Teams to Score @ $1.92AFC Bournemouth v Brentford
Bournemouth haven’t been been at their best recently, but with European football still within touching distance and at home in this one, it’s a good time to back a bounce back performance.
Nottingham Forest in 3rd and Bournemouth in 9th are separated by just 7 points! 😤 pic.twitter.com/ErpzU0UGDZ
— Premier League (@premierleague) March 11, 2025
While Brentford have proven to be a middling EPL team all season, their away form leaves a lot to be desired. They rank 15th on away form with only four wins in 13 matches. Bournemouth may have only won six of their 13 home matches, but their +7.9 expected goal difference is among the best in the league.
Both teams have regularly found the net this season. Brentford’s 48 goals and Bournemouth 47 goals this season place them in the Top 7 in the EPL. However, Brentford’s 44 goals conceded lets them down.
Bournemouth haven’t won in their last three matches but should have beaten Tottenham last week. Expect the form guide to correct itself with three points in this one.
Bet Now Bournemouth to Win @ $1.72Fulham v Tottenham
Tottenham have been poor all season but at least scored goals early on to make games entertaining. They don’t even have that anymore. While Spurs found the next twice in a relatively fortunate 2-2 draw with Bournemouth last week, the way in which the scored doesn’t inspire confidence.
A Pape Matar Sarr cross ended up in the goal for their first while Son Heung-Min needed to score their second from the spot. Another three in the Europa League might also look good on paper, but, again, we have to take some of the shine off due to the opposition.
Christian Romero and Micky Van de Ven are back, though. Both showed their class mid-week. Van de Ven, in particular, cleans up so many half-chances with his speed and will be better for the run in this one. In fact, Tottenham’s inexperience at the back cost them a goal not five minutes after he left the field against AZ Alkmaar.
Van de Ven was off the pitch for less than two minutes and Spurs conceded
— Jay Harris (@jaydmharris) March 13, 2025
Provided his early departure from the field came down to a minutes restriction and not another injury, we’re backing him to be the difference to the Tottenham defence against Fulham. It’s difficult to see much improvement with the ball, though.
Bet Now Under 2.5 Goals @ $2.31