The Run Home: How the Final Three Rounds Shape the Season

The 2025-25 EPL season is coming to an end, but there is plenty to play for in the final three weeks of the season.

Arsenal and Manchester City still have a few things to sort out at the top of the table. The Gunners hold a five-point advantage, but can’t be trusted to get the job done just yet. Just beyond the Top 3, behind an impressive Manchester United, we could see one of the strangest Champions League qualifications ever. There is a scenario where a team might want to lose on the final day should Aston Villa win the Europa League.

While the EPL title is the focus, a team of Tottenham’s stature being involved in a relegation battle so late in the season demands attention. They’ve only just escaped the relegation zone at the expense of West Ham. Still, despite their improvements under Roberto De Zerbi, they need to improve if they’re to avoid one of the most embarrassing relegations in EPL history.

The Title Push

Arsenal spent 200 days at the top of the EPL table before falling behind Manchester City in recent weeks. As expected and comically predictable as their poor period and drop to 2nd was at the time, City tripping at the first hurdle after retaking top spot came as a surprise.

Matchday 35 turned the title race on its head as Arsenal collected all three points while City needed a 97th-minute equaliser just to secure a point.

The race isn’t over. Manchester City are the most prolific goal-scoring team in the EPL with 69 this season. So long as Erling Haaland is on the field and adding to his competition-high 25 goals, City can leap Arsenal once more.

Scheduling is a factor in City’s run at Arsenal. They play first this weekend as $1.35 favourites to beat Brentford before their re-arranged game against Crystal Palace – again as big favourites ($1.25). Also worth noting, their final game of the season comes against Aston Villa, who could be on the back end of celebrating a Europa League Final win.

Mikel Arteta and the Gunners will be looking to stay at the top through defence. They’ve played with the best defence in the EPL all season, allowing only 0.69 goals per game. It’s the best record from the top five league clubs in all competitions.

Arsenal’s destiny is in their hands. Win out from here against West Ham, Burnley and Crystal Palace, and the Gunners will finally get their hands on the trophy after falling short so many times in recent years.

Premier League Winner: Arsenal – $1.20, Manchester City – $4.50

European Football

Champions League football is still up for grabs as Liverpool and Aston Villa look to secure the last guaranteed spot. Both Liverpool and Villa are on 58 points after Matchday 35 following respective defeats.

Despite the noise around Arne Slot’s future and the relatively disappointing season Liverpool has played out after winning the title last season, they’re $1.33 to finish this one in the Top 4.

Fifth remains a Champions League spot, where Aston Villa are six points clear. A win for them in the Europa League, along with a 5th-place finish in the EPL, opens the door for Bournemouth to finish sixth. They’ve never played in a European competition before, but are $2.80 to finish in the Top 6.

The Cherries are only one point clear of Brentford, who, themselves, are only a point above Brighton & Hove Albion. With Chelsea four points behind Bournemouth with a game in hand against Nottingham Forest, the race for the Top 6 is wide open.

Brighton are favourites, but Bournemouth have the form and Andoni Iraola, who has already confirmed his departure at the end of the season.

Top 6 Finish: Brighton & Hove Albion – $2.25, Bournemouth – $2.80, Brentford – $6, Chelsea – $10

Running From Relegation

The race to avoid relegation is just as exciting as the title race at the top of the EPL table.

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley are already confirmed for the drop, but the third and final team will be one of the highest quality in recent years. None of the bottom three teams in the Premier League cracked 30 points over the last two seasons. With West Ham (36) and Tottenham (37) well clear of the mark with three games still to play, the last relegated team is going to be one of the better to go down that we’ve seen.

Tottenham may have just pulled themselves out of the relegation zone, but they can just as quickly drop back down if they don’t continue this hot run of form. Back-to-back wins for the first time since the opening fortnight of the season have lifted Spurs above West Ham. The Hammers are now fighting for their future in the EPL against the title favourites on Matchday 36.

West Ham have improved as the EPL season has played out, but may have left their run too late. Early-season wins made Aston Villa’s decision to rest players against Spurs on Matchday 34 especially impactful, as the result dropped them back into the relegation zone, where they are $4.50 to escape.

The Hammers have been building since the international break, but the end of their three-match unbeaten run coincided with a Tottenham win. With Arsenal to come as $4.90 outsiders, a West Ham win would come as a bitter blow to both of their North London rivals.

Bet Now EPL Futures

Related

Top Shelf Tips – EPL Matchday 4 Preview

EPL – Matchday 3 Review

Top Shelf Tips – EPL Matchday 3 Preview