Matchday 29 of the EPL season is in the books, and we’re here to review it, identify the big takeaways, and examine the markets.
EPL Wrap
The widely held assumption that Manchester City are nailed on for a spot in the Champions League came under further question following their 2-2 draw with Brighton & Hove Albion. It leaves them at 5th on the EPL table, but only one point ahead of Brighton and Newcastle, who have a game in hand. In contrast, the expectation for Nottingham Forest to fall away is going silent. They further cemented their place in the Top 4 with a convincing 4-2 win over Ipswich Town.
Alongside Ipswich at the bottom of the EPL table, Southampton fell 2-1 to Wolverhampton Wanderers while Leicester City dropped more points at home in going down 3-0 to Manchester United.
David Moyes’ repair job on Everton continued with a 1-1 draw with West Ham. However, they did need a stoppage-time goal from Jake O’Brien to rescue the point and our Both Teams to Score tip.
Brentford has struggled on the road to have ranked 15th away from home before this weekend. However, Brian Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa took it upon themselves to lead their side to a 2-1 win over Bournemouth – just their fifth in 14 away matches this EPL season.
WWWWW 🙌
Our fine @premierleague form on the road continued on Saturday!
AFC Bournemouth (A) – Inside Brentford 👇
— Brentford FC (@BrentfordFC) March 17, 2025
The early-season Chelsea side that exceeded expectations is nowhere to be seen. Despite dominating possession against Arsenal, they couldn’t find the net while going down 1-0. Similarly, the Tottenham side that scored goals at will throughout the opening weeks of the EPL season went down to Fulham 2-0. Tottenham saved their week with a big Europa League result, but their place in Europe is all that seems to be keeping Ange Postecoglou safe at the moment.
3 Takeaways From Matchday 29
Where Did That Chelsea Team Go?
Chelsea are 4th on the EPL table and $2.25 to finish inside the Top 4.
Given the circus to start the season, their inflated roster, overbearing owner and new manager, a Top 4 finish is more than respectable.
However, expectations were reset in December. Enzo Maresca did a superb job of crafting a first-choice 11 around Cole Palmer, Moises Caceido and Nicolas Jackson to be 2nd on the table with only two defeats in 16 matches.
Zero the table at that point, just before Christmas, and Chelsea are 15th since. They’ve won only four of their 13 games and are above only Manchester United on goal difference in that time.
While without Palmer against Arsenal over the weekend, Chelsea barely threw a punch.
Chelsea played with 59.1% possession against Arsenal on Matchday 29.xG – 0.36
— Bet Sports (@betsports.bsky.social) 2025-03-17T19:40:09.995Z
They’re playing for their season at the moment, desperately trying to arrest a slide that could yet result in falling out of a Champions League spot. Maresca has a week over the break to prepare his side for a huge North London Derby against Tottenham Hotspur on Matchday 30.
Relegation Confirmed
Southampton are still on track to become the worst team in EPL history. Another defeat, this time 2-1 to fellow cellar-dwellars Wolves, leaves them with only two wins in 29 matches and nine points on the table.
While Leicester City and Ipswich Town are eight points clear of Southampton at the bottom, they’re no nine points adrift from safety.
Leicester’s 3-0 defeat to Manchester United makes their seventh straight at home – all without scoring a goal. Despite Ipswich looking better than the other two relegation zone teams while offering some hope and excitement, their defence is dire. For all of the good looks they generate with the ball, they offer up two or three to the opposition.
The three teams have only 43 points between them – the least ever the three bottom teams have generated at this stage of an EPL season.
None of the three were given much hope of staying up and there has been little jeopardy. Still, the relegation battle – if we can call it that – is over with two months of the season still to play.
City To Speed Up?
Pep Guardiola knows by now that reinventing the wheel without star players, or with aging stars, won’t secure a spot in the Champions League.
Manchester City have dominated with a possession-heavy style throughout their title-winning period. With the likes of Kevin de Bruyne able to deliver key passes to Erlang Haaland up front, City haven’t needed to create too many big chances. They’ve been elite in capitalizing on them.
However, times are changing, and Guardiola is too.
Haaland, Omar Marmoush, Jeremy Doku and Savinho broke out to generate City’s two goals over the weekend. They move fast and forward, a stark contrast to Guardiola’s style in recent seasons.
“I want to give it back to him…”
Jeremy Doku gives thanks to Pep Guardiola for his regular run of games#MCIBHA #PremierLeague pic.twitter.com/XqI0NmRj3a
— Stadium Astro 🇲🇾 (@stadiumastro) March 15, 2025
It opens them up defensively. Where City might have the players to change how they move up the field, they lack speed at the back to react to the counter. They were lucky not to concede a third against Brighton.
How will Guardiola progress from here?
Will City take their place in the Champions League using their attacking players in their best roles, or look to keep holdof it by securing the back?
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