Looking ahead to Matchweek 16 of the 2023/24 EPL season, we break down the five best bets for the weekend of Premier League action.
1. Aston Villa +1.0 vs Arsenal @ $1.75
The biggest game of Matchweek 16, without doubt. Not only because it’s third on the EPL table hosting first, but because both are unbeaten in four and both are exceeding expectations at this stage of the season. Arsenal didn’t expect to be six points clear of Manchester City at this stage, and Villa themselves by no means expected to be five points clear inside the Top 4. Three more points here would be huge for both clubs. Unai Emery has Villa perfectly drilled and dangerous. Coming off a victory against last year’s treble winners in which they not only took three points from Pep Guardiola’s men but dominated them, will instill huge belief. Home turf is a huge factor here, and if Villa don’t win it I’m backing them to get a point.
Bet Now Aston Villa vs ArsenalAston Villa are one win away from 15 consecutive home league wins for the first time in the club’s 149-year history.
LWWWWWWWWWWWWWW⏳
The L before the winning streak? Arsenal
The team they face in the 15th game? ArsenalHurry up, Saturday. 🍿 pic.twitter.com/Y0KcsUpa3j
— Squawka (@Squawka) December 6, 2023
2. Manchester City goals Under 2.5 vs Luton Town @ $2.09
There’s little doubt now that City are going through a genuine rut. After winning their first six EPL games on the bounce this season and shortening into $1.36 to win a fourth straight title, Pep Guaridola’s men have won just three of their next nine. They’re now out to $2.00 in the title market. Against Aston Villa midweek (in which they lost 1-0), City had just two shots AND conceded 22 to Villa, the most Guardiola has ever seen. Sure, Luton presents a more straightforward prospect, but Kenilworth Road has proven a tough hunting ground for oppositions, with Liverpool dropping points and Arsenal pushed all the way in recent weeks. I’ll back the Hatters to keep City to two goals or less.
Bet Now Luton Town vs Manchester City2 – Man City attempted just two shots in this match; the fewest ever by a Pep Guardiola team in a game within Europe’s big-five leagues, while the 22 shots from Aston Villa was the joint-most faced by a Guardiola side in the same period (tonight his 535th such game). Dominated. pic.twitter.com/T0gjP1ZbpZ
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) December 6, 2023
3. Manchester United & Over 2.5 goals vs Bournemouth @ $2.05
United’s win over Chelsea on Thursday morning (Australian time) represented a rare bit of happiness at Old Trafford this season. Not just because of the 2-1 victory, but because of the performance. Erik ten Hag’s men were far sharper and noticeably more physical in pressing higher up on the Blues. Old Trafford has long been a place where wide men scream up and down the wings, and it was a sight for sore eyes to see Alejandro Garnacho dominating as such. Whether it represents a turning point is another matter altogether — Chelsea were decidedly poor — but United should be too strong here in this clash against Bournemouth, at home again.
Bet Now Manchester United vs BournemouthWas on my feet when Shaw, Garnacho, and Bruno did this.
The intelligence from Garnacho to pass, move and create a passing channel to receive the ball from Bruno was brilliant.
Would’ve been a beautiful team goal. 🔥pic.twitter.com/VxBAAoZI88
— UF (@UtdFaithfuls) December 7, 2023
4. Liverpool -1.0 vs Crystal Palace @ $2.40
Undefeated in their last eight EPL games, Liverpool are arguably the form team of the competition right now. Palace, by contrast, are struggling with just one win in their last eight, and familiar groans echoing around Selhurst Park about the club’s plight under Roy Hodgson. Three home defeats on the bounce — the latest to Bournemouth and Everton — sees them really up against it this weekend. Jurgen Klopp’s men have scored two or more goals in 11 of their last 13 games (all competitions) and their EPL goal difference of +20 is the league’s best. They should have enough to win by two or more here.
Bet Now Crystal Place vs Liverpool“We need the fans of Crystal Palace as we know them.”
Roy Hodgson calls for the support of the fans during a bad moment for the club. pic.twitter.com/n7iuk9LrVc
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) December 7, 2023
5. Tottenham H2H vs Newcastle @ $2.15
One point in their last five EPL games hardly inspires confidence in Spurs ahead of this one. BUT, Ange Postecoglou’s men are by no means playing poorly, however their execution and game management could certainly be described as such. Newcastle themselves aren’t pulling up trees at present, having won just two of their last six games across all competitions. Most notably ahead of this one, though, is that they’ve proven to be a far less dangerous a prospect away from home, and have lost comprehensively to both Bournemouth and (on Friday morning) Everton away inside the last month. Backing Ange to get his side back on track in this huge clash.
Bet Now Tottenham vs NewcastleEverton vs. Newcastle in an image: pic.twitter.com/gypoK3Btp7
— B/R Football (@brfootball) December 7, 2023