Matchday 31 of the EPL season is in the books, and we’re here to review it, identify the big takeaways, and examine the markets.
Around The EPL
A Junior Kroupi penalty allowed Bournemouth to escape with a point against Manchester United, who were left with ten men after Harry Maguire’s red card. As usual, Bruno Fernandes was involved in the scoring, but Bournemouth answered right back in a trend that continued throughout the 2-2 draw.
Liverpool suffered a 10th EPL defeat of the season, the first time they’ve lost double-digit games since 2015-16, on the back of a 2-1 defeat to Brighton & Hove Albion. Meanwhile, Brighton have won four of their last five Premier League games to be 10th on the table.
Liverpool have now lost more league games than Arsenal and Man United 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙗𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙙 this season 😳 pic.twitter.com/NtAAYyT5Gl
— LiveScore (@livescore) March 21, 2026
Everton always looked capable of pinching a point against Chelsea, but 3-0 will have come as a shock to everybody. They’re now within two points of Chelsea on the EPL table.
While they didn’t manage all three points, Leeds went four points clear of the relegation zone with a goalless draw against Brentford. Notably, the Bees have played out 14 goalless draws since being promoted to the EPL.
Brian Brobbey scored the latest ever winner in a Tyne-Wear derby to propel Sunderland to a 2-1 win over Newcastle. Anthony Elanga scored the opener for Newcastle after only three minutes, but they couldn’t finish the job following a hot start.
Ollie Watkins ended his relative drought to score Aston Villa’s first on their way to a 2-0 win over West Ham. Given the other results throughout Matchday 31, it’s a significant defeat for the Hammers in their quest to avoid relegation.
Their draw with Liverpool and impressive showing in the Champions League proved to be a false dawn for Tottenham Hotspur, who suffered an embarrassing 3-0 home defeat to Nottingham Forest. With everything to play for and with the fans behind them, the players didn’t turn up. Forest, meanwhile, have come breathing room from the bottom three on the EPL table.
3 Takeaways From Matchday 31
Chelsea Falling Away
There was a moment when Chelsea appeared to be in the box seat for a Champions League spot. Now they’re 6th on the table, three points behind Aston Villa in 4th, and looking less likely to pull it back.
They’ve lost four consecutive games in all competitions and are without a goal in their last three. It’s the first time they’ve gone without a goal for three straight games since September 2023. Liam Rosenior’s side hasn’t been without opportunities either, attempting 52 shots in that span. The issue is that only 16 have landed on target.
Last 4 matches:
Chelsea (5.70) 2-12 (4.84) Opponents
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) March 21, 2026
Again, in this 3-0 defeat, they managed 1.11 expected goals, more than Everton’s 0.98 xG.
The new manager bounce is over for Rosenior after losing only two of his first 12 matches. Reports suggest Chelsea is now appraising his early results with an eye on long-term stability. The pressure is on ahead of Manchester City in their next EPL fixture.
The Odds Are In…
And Tottenham Hotspur are only $1.50 to avoid relegation.
They’re in genuine trouble after being thumped 3-0 by Nottingham Forest in a relegation six-pointer. In a match that could have gone a long way to securing their future in the EPL, Spurs barely threw a punch.
Things are getting so bad for the group that even the most hardened supporters are losing hope.
Spurs haven’t registered a Premier League win since just after Christmas. They’ve moved one manager on and introduced Igor Tudor to steady the ship. Tottenham hasn’t kicked on. In fact, they’re arguably worse now and offering less hope than they ever did under Thomas Frank.
They’re into ‘worst in league history’ territory on the back of 13 winless matches, equalling their second-worst run going back to 1912.
Forest, meanwhile, has moved two points clear of Spurs to start locking in their spot for the 2026-27 EPL season. Vitor Pereira earned his first win as manager in a massive spot for the Tricky Trees to move out to $7 to be relegated.
Relegated: West Ham – $2.25, Tottenham – $3.25, Nottingham Forest – $7, Leeds – $7.50
Title Race Without Arsenal & Manchester City
We’re at the point of the EPL season where Arsenal are $1.07 favourites to go on and win the title. While there have been hints of a possible stumble on their way to lifting the trophy, Manchester City haven’t been able to trip them up with regular results themselves. Still, they’re the only team in the hunt at $7.
However, we can still look at the rest of the league and what it looks like without the two top teams.
Manchester United are a different outfit under Michael Carrick. It’s time to appoint him as the long-term manager at the club. There isn’t anybody else who would appease the supporter base more right now. Given the frosty relationship between the front office and fans in the stands across recent seasons, it might be for the best. If they kick on to finish ahead of everybody else in the EPL outside of Arsenal and Manchester City at $1.39, they won’t have a choice.
Liverpool have performed the stumble many expected of Arsenal to finish the season, now 5th on the back of a winless three matches. Arne Slot’s position as manager has come under question a few times already, and has done again following their recent run. Meanwhile, Aston Villa has managed to take advantage, unlike City, to have beaten West Ham and pull five points clear at 4th. If we’re looking at form and momentum coming out of the international break, Villa look a value option at $4.50 to finish above everyone else in a league without Arsenal and City.