We’re a little over a third of the way through the EPL season, so it’s time to check in on some of the futures markets in the hunt for value.
Surprise Team: Brighton & Hove Albion
Fabian Hurzeler (31) is the EPL’s youngest ever manager. He came into this season with high expectations, so it’s not a huge surprise to see Brighton & Hove Albion start the campaign well following their 11th-place finish to 2023-24.
This good, though?
THAT 3pt gap… pic.twitter.com/NdBer2BhR4
— Brightonian (@Brightonian_) November 25, 2024
Brighton sit 5th on the Premier League table, three points in front of Tottenham ahead of their Matchday 13 clash with Southampton as $1.38 favourites.
Their 22 points from 12 games is their best-ever start to a top-flight campaign. A lot of their success has come thanks to their home record, in which they’re unbeaten in six games.
Joao Pedro has been fantastic under Hurzeler while Danny Welbeck (who arrived on a free in October 2020) has made the best start to a season in his career with six goals. As a result, Brighton has the same record as title hopefuls Arsenal and giants Chelsea.
Hurzeler is working wonders, and there is little to suggest he can’t sustain it enough to keep their place in the Top 6.
Top 6 Finish: Tottenham – $1.45, Newcastle $2.50, Manchester United $2.60, Aston Villa – $3.25
Best Bet Top 6 Finish - Brighton @ $2.25
Premier League Poor Performer
It’s wild that this is a sentence being written within a Poor Performer segment, but here we are:
Manchester City have disappointed in starting the 2024-25 EPL season.
It’s all relative, obviously. They’re still second on the table and on the third line of betting to win the league. Any other team in the league would be happy with only three defeats in 12 games.
But not Manchester City.
The four-time Premier League champions lost five games on the bounce in all competitions before drawing 3-3 with Feyenoord from 3-0 in front in the Champions League.
1 – For the first time in what was the 942nd game of his managerial career, Pep Guardiola has seen his side fail to win a match after leading by three goals. Remarkable. pic.twitter.com/1Ehm11ax8D
— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) November 26, 2024
Their three Premier League defeats have them eight points behind Liverpool (EPL Winner – $1.72) at the top of the table already. While the injury to Rodri was pointed out as a significant factor in their struggles, it doesn’t explain this winless run. City’s issues go far deeper than an injury to their star midfielder.
“They’re among the oldest teams in the EPL and look like it at the moment. Pep Guardiola doesn’t have a solution for the ease in which opposition teams are pulling his midfield to pieces.” – City Losing It
A bad Manchester City is still unlikely to fall out of the Champions League spots. They remain at $1.33 to finish in the Top 4. However, they’re no sure thing of keeping up with Liverpool at $4.33 to win the EPL and $1.91 for a Top 2 finish.
The EPL Title Race
Liverpool opened the 2024-25 EPL season at $7 to win the title.
While Arne Slot inherited a strong squad, it was difficult to imagine anybody taking over Jurgen Klopp so seamlessly. However, by taking what already worked and not becoming obsessed with putting his mark on the group and playing style, Slot has Liverpool flying high.
They’re one of the best-attacking teams in the Premier League to have scored 21 goals this season. Only Manchester City (22.29) and Tottenham (21.69) have a higher expected goal mark than Liverpool’s 20.45. Mo Salah, as usual, has been excellent in leading the Premier League in scoring involvements with 16 (10 goals, 6 assists).
Liverpool are the best defensive team in the league to have conceded only eight goals in 12 games. Their 10.6 expected goals against translates into a +12.6 expected goal difference – comfortably the best mark in the EPL.
Slot’s side are in the box seat to win the Premier League title at $1.72, and history suggests they’ll do it. Only two teams have previously held an eight-point lead by this point in a campaign, and both went on to win the title. Only 10 teams in the last 30 years have registered 31 points in 12 games. Eight of the ten went on to lift the trophy.
🗣️ Arne Slot on Liverpool's 8-point Premier League advantage… pic.twitter.com/bq1nD9gQxu
— This Is Anfield (@thisisanfield) November 24, 2024
Liverpool are $2 favourites to beat Manchester City ($3.20) in Matchday 13 in a fixture that could determine the title. A home win would increase Liverpool’s lead to 11 points. Only three teams in Premier League history have failed to win the title with an 11-point lead at any stage of the season.
Slot has exceeded expectations while the rest of the league has fallen into (or out of) place around him. However, Liverpool’s draw to date has been friendly. Arsenal ($4.20) is on the improve, and City ($4.33) can’t be ruled out yet. They deserve to be favourites, but the value looks elsewhere right now.
Relegation Battle
Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United came up to the Premier League and went straight back down last season. It’s looking like a similar story in this one, with Southampton ($1.10), Leicester ($1.57) and Ipswich ($1.62) as the three teams favoured to go down after Matchday 12.
Southampton have managed only seven goals in 12 games for one win and a draw. It took ten games to win their first and might take another ten to win their second on recent form.
Leicester City have just sacked Steve Cooper after taking only 10 points from their first 12 games. Taking over from Enzo Maresca while also losing Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall to Chelsea presented as a challenging task, but Cooper offered little to be hopeful of improvement moving forward. His constant complaining about officials and deflecting from the issues within his system no doubt contributed to Cooper’s downfall.
"We've had some terrible luck with this referee this year." 😬
Steve Cooper speaks after Leicester's 2-1 loss to Chelsea at the King Power Stadium 🗣
📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/mnxeZ5p2io
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) November 23, 2024
The Tractor Boys are in the EPL for the first time since 2002 but are expected to go straight back down after winning only one of their first 12 games. Ipswich failing to beat Manchester United in Matchday 12 is a bad omen. They’re still without a home win this season. Only five newly promoted teams have gone winless in their opening six home games, with all going on to be relegated.