The 2026/27 EPL season is just around the corner, with Arsenal and Manchester City preparing to kick things off in the FA Community Shield this week.
Arsenal come into the season as defending Premier League champions and slight $2.50 favourites for this one. Meanwhile, Manchester City are ushering in a new era at the club following the departure of Pep Guardiola. Enzo Maresca will be eager to get his campaign off to a good start with a trophy as $2.55 outsiders.
It’s the first time the fixture will be played outside of England for 20 years as Cardiff’s Principality Stadium plays host. Nonetheless, the feeling in the match will no doubt reach mid-season levels if the result is up for grabs late.
Arsenal
The Gunners aren’t sitting back and expecting it to happen all over again this season. They’ve spent big money before Matchday 1, with Bruno Guimaraes the headline addition from Newcastle.
However, it might not happen straight away. Following a campaign built on defence, Arsenal have been leaking goals throughout the pre-season. They lost against both Borussia Dortmund and Real Betis while shipping six goals before needing penalties to get past Como 1907 in the final hitout.
Ending pre-season with a penalty shootout victory 🙌
Enjoy the highlights from our clash with Como 1907 🍿 pic.twitter.com/iXkdrPytWA
— Arsenal (@Arsenal) August 12, 2026
There is the “it’s only pre-season” caveat, and William Saliba and Jurriën Timber aren’t available. Still, the individual errors at the back have to be a slight cause for concern given how well Arsenal performed in that part of the field last season.
Arsenal won’t change a winning formula. They’ll continue to be aggressive in the press and play with fluid movement and quick combinations with the ball. However, both approaches rely on fitness and cohesion – neither are strengths in August.
Mikel Arteta and Arsenal will figure it out. They’ve proven as much in recent seasons and deserve the benefit of the doubt – particularly before a ball has been kicked in the Premier League season. But to have it all figured out before the Community Shield? They’ll need to make significant improvements in the backline to live up to their reputation here.
Manchester City
It’s a lot different at Manchester City this season, but the goal remains the same.
Pep Guardiola has departed the club, but the expectation is for Enzo Maresca to hit the ground running. They’re on the second line of betting to win the title at $4.20 for a reason.
Where we might look at a new manager coming in as a concern, the transition from Guardiola to Maresca should be relatively simple. Maresca is a Guardiola disciple and understands the need to fine-tune what is a proven formula rather than implementing anything totally new.
Enzo Maresca: "You need to adapt a little. Compared to three years ago, the big difference is set-pieces and everyone goes man to man. Arsenal rely on set pieces a lot. They use different strategies to win. We’re going to try improve, even set-piece numbers – you can win or lose… pic.twitter.com/WEOdr0LxK9
— City Xtra (@City_Xtra) August 11, 2026
There can be the perception of the Community Shield being a glorified friendly, but Elliott Anderson isn’t treating it as such:
“I think every game is important, all the pre-season games have been important, so that’s all we’ll try and do is win that game. It’ll be a difficult game. Obviously the champions from last season so it’ll be tough but every game’s going to be tough this season. We’ll just play in our style on them and try and win the game.”
Expect City to be committed to what worked last season, where they played with patient build-up play and dominated possession to lead the EPL at 60.5% per game. No team played more successful passes as City looked to create overloads in the midfield. While it’s early in the season, with a new manager on the sidelines and new faces on the pitch, it’s unlikely they approach this one much differently from last season.
Community Shield Tips
Arsenal are minor favourites before kickoff, and the expectation is for goals with the Over 1.5 at $1.26. Erling Haaland, as expected, is the $2.10 favourite to find the net ahead of Victor Gyokeres ($2.50), Antoine Semenyo ($2.75) and Gabriel Jesus and Omar Marmoush ($2.80).
So much of this match can come down to motivation. The advantage is towards Maresca and Manchester City in that department.
Arsenal can look at the trophy in the cabinet and trust they’re on the right track to do it all again. City, on the other hand, will have some trepidation around their prospects following Guardiola’s departure.
The consecutive defeats in the preseason for Arsenal aren’t nothing. They’re waiting for players to return from injury, or get up to speed after the World Cup. Declan Rice and Bukayo Saka, in particular, are unlikely to complete a full 90 minutes in this one.
Both teams will say they want to win and intend to approach this match like any other. However, five of the last seven Community Shield fixtures have ended in a draw, including the last three. With the two teams balancing each other out on both sides of the ball, and neither bouncing into the EPL season with any guarantees, a draw after 90 minutes is the play here.