EPL Tips & Preview – Week 9

Find the back of the net with tips for Week 9 of the 2021-22 EPL campaign, culminating in a heavyweight clash between Man United and Liverpool. 

History: Played 197: Arsenal 83 V Aston Villa 69 (45 Draws)

Last meeting: February 6, 2021 (EPL): Aston Villa 1 d Arsenal 0 at Villa Park

Final Thoughts: Arsenal still occupy an unflattering 12th spot on the EPL ladder, but they are on a five-match unbeaten streak. Draws in their last two at Brighton (0-0) and at home to Crystal Palace (2-2) are less than ideal for the Gunners, but Alexandre Lacazette’s 95th-minute equaliser last week could be a catalyst for a form surge.

Aston Villa are one place and one point back following consecutive losses to Tottenham (2-1) and Wolverhampton (3-2). The loss to Wolves stung after leading 2-0 as the clock approached the 80-minute mark.

Aston Villa have won their last three against Arsenal to nil – including a 3-0 rout at Emirates Stadium last season. But after Villa’s confidence-sapping collapse last week, look to the Gunners to reverse the recent trend between the clubs at home.

Tip: Result – Arsenal @ $1.91

History: Played 56: Chelsea 24 V Norwich 14 (18 Draws)

Last meeting: July 14, 2020 (EPL): Chelsea 1 d Norwich 0 at Stamford Bridge

Final Thoughts: The ladder leaders host the bottom-placed team.

Chelsea boast a 6-1-1 record, following up their sole loss to Man City in Week 6 with wins over Southampton (3-1) and Brentford (1-0). Ben Chilwell scored the decisive goal at Brentford after notching the sealer against the Saints. They also pumped Malmo 4-0 in midweek UCL action.

Norwich remain winless, but they have picked up their first points of the season in their past two outings via scoreless draws with Burnley and Brighton. There’s a fair amount of resilience in the Canaries line-up, but they have scored just two goals in eight games.

Norwich are winless in 17 games against Chelsea since 1994. There’s little to suggest that will change here, particularly with the Blues already keeping five clean sheets this season.

Tip: Chelsea To Win To Nil @ $1.66

History: Played 49: Newcastle 28 V Crystal Palace 12 (9 Draws)

Last meeting: February 2, 2021 (EPL): Crystal Palace 2 d Newcastle 1 at St James’ Park

Final Thoughts: Crystal Palace are 14th and came oh-so-close to their second win of the season last weekend, conceding in stoppage time to draw 2-all with Arsenal. It was Palace’s fifth stalemate of the campaign and third in succession.

On a positive note for Patrick Vieira, Palace’s attack has been eye-catching, also putting two goals past Leicester in their previous outing.

Second-last Newcastle are yet to register a win, going down 3-2 to Tottenham after Callum Wilson’s third goal of the season opened the scoring in the second minute. Steve Bruce was sacked by the new Saudi-led consortium three days later, with Graeme Jones warming the manager’s seat for now.

Both teams scoring has hit just twice in the teams’ last nine clashes. Last season Newcastle prevailed 2-0 at Selhurst Park, but Crystal Palace turned the tables 2-1 at St James’ Park.

Palace have played some excellent football in recent weeks and should be able to take advantage of the upheaval at Newcastle.

Tip: Result and Total – Crystal Palace and Over 2.5 @ $3.00

History: Played 99: Leeds 42 V Wolverhampton 35 (22 Draws)

Last meeting: February 19, 2021 (EPL): Wolverhampton 1 d Leeds 0 at Molineux Stadium

Final Thoughts: Leeds are a disappointing 17th after following up their first win of the season – a 1-0 victory over Watford – with a 1-0 defeat at Southampton. The freewheeling attack of last season remains absent, scoring more than one goal just once this season.

Wolverhampton, meanwhile, are on a serious upswing. They have climbed into the top half with four wins from their last five games – including three straight against Southampton (1-0), Newcastle (2-1) and Aston Villa (3-2) in their past three. Usually dour Wolves scored three goals from the 80th minute (including a stoppage-time winner from Ruben Neves) at Villa Park to overcome a two-goal deficit

Wolves have won their last five against Leeds, including a pair of 1-0 results last season. There’s little to justify Leeds’ favouritism here, aside from home-ground advantage.

Tip: Double Chance and Both Teams To Score – Wolverhampton or Draw and Yes @ $2.38

History: Played 31: Everton 22 V Watford 5 (4 Draws)

Last meeting: February 1, 2020 (EPL): Everton 3 d Watford 2 at Goodison Park

Final Thoughts: Everton are eighth on the ladder but only five points off the EPL lead. The Toffees are aiming to bounce back from a 1-0 home loss to West Ham, while their only victory in their past four outings was against last-placed Norwich.

Watford’s new era under Claudio Ranieri began in dismal fashion, crushed 5-0 by Liverpool. It was the fifth time this season the 16th-placed Hornets have been held to nil.

The best Watford have managed in 16 visits to Goodison Park is two draws. It’s shaping as an ideal opportunity for Everton to get back on track, though the hosts are prohibitive $1.50 favourites.

Tip: Half-time/Full-time – Everton/Everton @ $2.50

History: Played 62: Burnley 23 V Southampton 22 (17 Draws)

Last meeting: April 4, 2021 (EPL): Southampton 3 d Burnley 2 at St Mary’s Stadium

Final Thoughts: Southampton are looking to inch further away from the relegation picture when they host winless Burnley, having gotten off the mark in the win column themselves last week. The Saints had managed just four draws in their first seven matches but put away Leeds 1-0 via Armando Broja’s 53rd-minute goal.

Burnley lie 18th with just three draws to show for their efforts to date. But the Clarets can take some confidence from holding Man City to a 2-0 scoreline at Etihad Stadium last week.

After a seven-match winless run in the rivalry, Southampton won both clashes against Burnley last season – 1-0 at home and 3-2 away.

The teams have managed a measly 11 goals between them so far this season. But both have shown a bit of defensive resolve and the under looks to hold more value than the head-to-head market.

Tip: Total – Under 2.5 @ $1.78

History: Played 26: Man City 16 V Brighton 6 (4 Draws)

Last meeting: May 18, 2021 (EPL): Brighton 3 d Man City 2 at Amex Stadium

Final Thoughts: Brighton’s high-flying start meets its sternest examination to date when they host defending champs Manchester City. The fourth-placed Seagulls have lost just once this season, though they are on a run of three straight draws against Crystal Palace (1-1), Arsenal (0-0) and – disappointingly – Norwich City (0-0).

Man City are third, chalking up five wins and two draws since their first-up loss to Spurs. Bernardo Silva and Kevin de Bruyne scored as the Citizens overcame Burnley last week and kept their sixth clean sheet of the season. City’s roll continued with a 5-1 Champions League rout of Club Brugge earlier this week.

Brighton ended an eight-match losing streak against Man City late last season, pulling off a 3-2 upset against the eventual champs.

The Seagulls have conceded more than one goal just once this season, but the surprise packets’ recent dearth of goals is a concern against arguably the league’s top defence.

Tip: Man City To Win To Nil @ $2.16

History: Played 216: Tottenham 98 V West Ham 65 (53 Draws)

Last meeting: February 21, 2021 (EPL): West Ham 2 d Tottenham 1 at London Stadium

Final Thoughts: West Ham have struggled for consistency in their quest to back up last year’s breakout campaign, but they bounced back from a stoppage-time defeat to Brentford with a gritty 1-0 win at Everton last week to climb to seventh.

Tottenham moved to fifth with their second straight win, a 3-2 victory over Newcastle after scoring three first-half goals. The result was perhaps most significant for Harry Kane scoring his first goal of the campaign.

Last season the London rivals drew 3-all at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, before West Ham grabbed a 2-1 victory at home.

Both sides are on a short turnaround from European competition duties, though Spurs are resting Kane and Son Heung-min from their clash with SBV Vitesse. West Ham are $2.30 favourites at home but I like the over here, with six of Hammers’ eight games and Spurs’ last five producing three-plus goals.

Tip: Total – Over 2.5 @ $1.82

History: Played 29: Leicester 13 V Brentford 6 (10 Draws)

Last meeting: January 24, 2021 (FA Cup): Leicester 3 d Brentford 1 at Brentford Community Stadium

Final Thoughts: Brentford continue to overachieve in their promotion season, occupying a spot in the top half from the outset. Last week’s 1-0 loss to league leaders Chelsea was just the Bees’ second defeat, while they have conceded more than one goal just once – in a 3-all draw with Liverpool.

After a muddling start to the campaign, Leicester City appear on the cusp of building some momentum. Following back-to-back 2-all draws with Burnley and Palace, the Foxes overwhelmed Manchester United 4-2 with a pair of late goals.

Leicester’s high-scoring exploits continued with a 4-3 Europa League victory away to Spartak Moscow, with Patson Daka – who netted the stoppage-time sealer against United – bagging all four goals.

With Leicester on a short turnaround, Brentford are narrow $2.63 favourites at home. But I’m leaning towards the visitors here.

Tip: Double Chance and Total – Leicester or Draw and Under 2.5 @ $2.50

History: Played 225: Man United 89 V Liverpool 78 (68 Draws)

Last meeting: May 13, 2021: Liverpool 4 d Man United 2 at Old Trafford

Final Thoughts: United have slipped to sixth after bookending their Week 6 draw at home to Everton (1-1) with losses to Aston Villa (1-0) and Leicester (4-2). A 3-2 Champions League win over Atalanta midweek provided some solace for the club, with Cristiano Ronaldo getting on the scoresheet for the third straight UCL game.

After drawing their previous two against Brentford and Man City, second-placed Liverpool thrashed Watford 5-0 last week with Roberto Firmino scoring a hat-trick. Mo Salah also boosted his EPL season tally to seven goals, while the club has racked up a league-high 22 goals.

Liverpool’s attacking blitz continued midweek with a 3-2 UCL victory at Atletico Madrid on the back of a Salah brace.

Seven of the heavyweights’ last 12 encounters finished in a draw, including a scoreless affair at Anfield last season. But Man United racked up a 3-2 FA Cup win in January and Liverpool powered to a 4-2 success at Old Trafford late in the EPL campaign.

Liverpool’s blockbusting form is hard to resist, especially with United struggling to find their rhythm.

Tip: Result – Liverpool @ $2.25