EPL Tips & Preview – Week 5

Find the back of the net with tips for Week 5 of the 2021-22 EPL campaign, culminating in a huge derby between Tottenham and Chelsea. 

History: Played 96: Newcastle 39 V Leeds 39 (18 Draws)

Last meeting: January 26, 2021 (EPL): Leeds 2 d Newcastle 1 at St James’ Park

Final Thoughts: Newcastle and Leeds are both searching for their first win of the campaign.

Newcastle’s sole point came from a 2-all draw with Southampton in Week 3. They were spanked 4-1 by Man United and Ronaldo-mania last weekend and have conceded the most goals in the league (12).

Leeds have performed marginally better, bookending back-to-back draws against Everton and Burnley with heavy defeats to Man United and Liverpool. Their 11 goals conceded is second-worst in the EPL, while their vaunted attack is yet to fire as it did last season.

After winning just one of the teams’ previous 12 encounters, promoted Leeds carved up against Newcastle last season. Leeds romped to a 5-2 win at Elland Road and prevailed 2-1 at St James’ Park.

Leeds are $2.25 away favourites and their superior firepower is reason enough to lean their way.

Tip: Double Chance and Both Teams To Score – Draw or Leeds and Yes @ $2.00

History: Played 27: Wolverhampton 13 V Brentford 11 (3 Draws)

Last meeting: January 2, 2018 (Championship): Wolverhampton 3 d Brentford 0 at Molineux Stadium

Final Thoughts: Wolverhampton are backing up from their first win of the season, overpowering Watford 2-0 after recording three straight 1-0 losses to big dogs Leicester, Tottenham and Man United.

It was far from comprehensive from Wolves at Vicarage Road – getting on the board through an own goal in the 74th minute before Hwang Heechan sealed the three points nine minutes later – but they nevertheless will be confident of another win over a promoted side this weekend.

Brentford are coming off their first defeat after a charmed start that featured a home win over Arsenal and draws at Crystal Palace and Aston Villa. The Bees were rolled 1-0 at home by Brighton in Week 4.

The under is an obvious play with neither side featuring in a match with more than two goals so far. Head-to-head, Wolves as $1.91 favourites are a decent option.

Tip: Total – Under 1.5 @ $2.63

History: Played 102: Norwich 42 V Watford 31

Last meeting: April 20, 2021 (Championship): Watford 1 d Norwich 0 at Carrow Road

Final Thoughts: Promoted duo Norwich City and Watford lock horns as the early battle to move away from the bottom of the ladder continues.

Norwich are the only team the competition without a point and have managed just one goal in the opening month of the season. But the Canaries showed some resolve in their last two losses to high-profile sides Leicester (2-1) and Arsenal (1-0).

Watford have lost three in a row without scoring to Brighton (2-0), Tottenham (1-0) and Wolves (2-0) after their surprise first-up win over Aston Villa.

Watford are on a four-match winning streak against Norwich, including a pair of 1-0 victories during last season’s Championship. Neither side inspire much confidence at this stage; the Hornets are tempting as $3.40 underdogs but I’m backing a draw here.

Tip: Result – Draw @ $3.25

History: Played 111: Arsenal 54 V Burnley 34 (23 Draws)

Last meeting: March 6, 2021 (EPL): 1-1 draw at Turf Moor

Final Thoughts: Burnley are winless heading into Week 5, picking up their first point via a 1-all draw with Leeds before crashing 3-1 at Everton last weekend. The Clarets scored the first goal at Goodison Park eight minutes into the second half but leaked three in a catastrophic six-minute burst soon afterwards.

Arsenal relieved the pressure somewhat after a diabolical 0-3 start, edging lowly Norwich City 1-0 in Week 4. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s 66th-minute goal was the Gunners’ first of the season and enough to secure a much-needed three points.

Arresting an 11-match losing streak against Arsenal, Burnley have drawn two and won one of the teams’ last three clashes. The Clarets upset the Gunners 1-0 at Emirates Stadium and held the struggling heavyweights to a 1-all draw at Turf Moor.

Despite that recent history and Arsenal’s struggles, the visitors should find a way to manufacture another ugly victory after last week’s drought-breaker.

Tip: Result – Arsenal @ $2.00

History: Played 95: Man City 38 V Southampton 32 (25 Draws)

Last meeting: March 10, 2021 (EPL): Man City 5 d Southampton 2 at Etihad Stadium

Final Thoughts: Manchester City have chalked up three straight wins to nil after their Week 1 slip-up against Tottenham. Leicester City provided a much stiffer test following consecutive 5-0 maulings of Norwich and Arsenal at home, but Bernardo Silva’s 62nd-minute goal was enough to secure the three points at King Power Stadium. The Citizens also put six goals past RB Leipzig in UCL action midweek.

Southampton are winless but have managed three straight draws, frustrating Man United (1-1) and West Ham (0-0) at home either side of a 2-all result at Newcastle.

Man City have won nine of their last 10 against Southampton, including a 1-0 win on the road and a 5-2 thrashing at Etihad Stadium last season. Southampton have not beaten City away since 2004.

It’s a case of $1.13 favourites City by how many – and their value to win by three goals more or good enough to get behind.

Tip: Handicap – Man City -2 @ $2.10

History: Played 58: Liverpool 33 V Crystal Palace 14 (11 Draws)

Last meeting: May 23, 2021 (EPL): Liverpool 2 d Crystal Palace 0 at Anfield

Final Thoughts: Liverpool remain unbeaten and will view a home fixture against Crystal Palace as a non-negotiable three points in what is shaping as a razor’s edge title race.

After a somewhat fortunate 1-all draw at home to a 10-man Chelsea, Liverpool went to Leeds and came away with a 3-0 victory. Mo Salah scored his third goal of the season and Sadio Mane grabbed his second.

Crystal Palace have been building impressively, however, culminating in a stunning result last weekend. Following a first-up 3-0 loss at Chelsea and an unimpressive scoreless draw at home to Brentford, Palace have drawn 2-all at West Ham and produced a shock 3-0 upset of Tottenham at Selhurst Park. The boilover against Spurs came via a Wilfried Zaha penalty and a late brace from Onsonne Edouard after a scoreless opening 75 minutes.

Liverpool are on a nine-match winning streak against Crystal Palace. The defending champs obliterated Palace 7-0 at Selhurst Park and racked up a 2-0 victory at home last season. Roberto Firmino bagged a hat-trick in the away win, while Sadio Mane scored three goals across the two games.

Palace are $13 underdogs but they can play. Liverpool, who are on a short turnaround from a 3-2 UCL win over Milan, will get the W but a more conservative play may be the way to go here.

Tip: Result and Total – Liverpool and Over 2.5 @ $1.62

History: Played 224: Aston Villa 82 V Everton 82 (60 Draws)

Last meeting: May 13, 2021 (EPL): 0-0 draw at Villa Park

Final Thoughts: It will surprise many to see unbeaten Everton head into this road trip against Aston Villa as underdogs. But Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last four against Everton. After springing a 2-1 upset at Goodison Park last season, Villa held the Toffees to a scoreless draw at home.

Everton have been in fine fettle to start the season, however, beating Southampton, Brighton and Burnley by two-goal margins and notching a draw at Leeds. They took a while to warm up against Burnley last weekend and conceded the first goal, but a three-goal flurry in six minutes from the hour mark put the Toffees on their way.

Villa have a win over Newcastle and a draw with Brentford to their name so far, but they are regrouping from a 3-0 thrashing meted out by Chelsea in Week 4.

You won’t find much better value this week than backing Everton head-to-head.

Tip: Result – Everton @ $3.00

History: Played 38: Leicester 18 V Brighton 13 (7 Draws)

Last meeting: March 6, 2021 (EPL): Leicester City 2 d Brighton 1 at Amex Stadium

Final Thoughts: Leicester City have made a modest start to the season – wins over Wolves and Norwich, losses to West Ham and Man City – and will risk losing touch with the EPL front-runners if they don’t come away from Brighton with the three points.

A 1-0 defeat against Man City is far from disastrous, though, but the Foxes are on a short turnaround from a Europa League assignment against Napoli.

Brighton are sixth on the ladder, benefitting from a soft draw to pick up wins over Burnley, Watford and Brentford. Their sole loss was to Everton in Week 3. The Seagulls left it late at Brentford, with Leandro Trossard’s 90th-minute goal securing a 1-0 result.

Leicester are unbeaten in their last nine clashes with Brighton. Last season the Foxes carved out a 3-0 win at home and a 2-1 success on the road in the EPL either side of a 1-0 FA Cup victory at King Power Stadium.

There’s a couple of reasons to be hesitant about Leicester and confident in Brighton, but a top-four candidate as an underdog against a perennial bottom-half outfit is too tempting to pass up.

Tip: Result – Leicester @ $2.75

History: Played 146: Man United 69 V West Ham 45 (32 Draws)

Last meeting: March 14, 2021 (EPL): Man United 1 d West Ham 0 at Old Trafford

Final Thoughts: West Ham have backed up their breakout 2020-21 campaign with an unbeaten start to this season. But after swamping Newcastle and Leicester in the opening fortnight, the feeling is Hammers left some points out on the pitch in draws with Crystal Palace at home (2-2) and Southampton away (0-0).

West Ham are also buoyed by a 2-0 Europa League win at Dinamo Zagreb midweek, but they face easily their biggest EPL test to date with Manchester United coming to town.

Man United are unbeaten, frustrated in a draw with Southampton but otherwise comfortable in wins over Leeds, Wolves and Newcastle. Cristiano Ronaldo’s return outing could hardly have gone more to script, scoring the first two goals of a 4-1 rout of the Magpies last weekend.

Ronaldo also scored first in the UCL clash against Young Boys in Switzerland midweek, but United were mowed down in stoppage time after Aaron Wan-Bissaka’s red card.

Manchester United beat much-improved West Ham 3-1 at London Stadium and 1-0 at home during last season’s Premier League, as well as bouncing Hammers out of the FA Cup 1-0. West Ham boast three wins and two draws from their last seven EPL fixtures against Man United at London Stadium.

Man U are perhaps a little short as $1.73 favourites, but they shape as likely winners in an entertaining showdown.

Tip: Result and Both Teams To Score – Man United and Yes @ $3.20

History: Played 168: Chelsea 73 V Tottenham 55 (41 Draws)

Last meeting: February 4, 2021 (EPL): Chelsea 1 d Tottenham 0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Final Thoughts: Tottenham softened the edge of this blockbuster slightly courtesy of their baffling 3-0 loss at Crystal Palace last week. After three straight 1-0 wins over Man City, Wolves and Watford, Spurs crumbled late and hard at Selhurst Park.

Meanwhile, Chelsea are looking every bit the title contender, chalking up wins to nil over Palace (3-0), Arsenal (2-0) and Aston Villa (3-0), and a 1-all draw at Liverpool despite being reduced to 10 men. Romelu Lukaku bagged a brace against Villa to take his season tally to three.

Lukaku found the back of the net again in Chelsea’s 1-0 Champions League victory over Zenit midweek.

Chelsea are unbeaten in their last six Premier League clashes with Tottenham, winning five. Last season Spurs won a League Cup tie on penalties, before the teams drew 0-0 at Stamford Bridge and Chelsea got up 1-0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in EPL action.

On a short turnaround against a heavyweight host unburdened by European competition, Chelsea may seem a bit short as a $1.80 favourite. But their defence under Thomas Tuchel (a Mo Salah penalty is their only goal conceded this season) should carry them through against a Tottenham side whose attack is yet to catch fire.

Tip: Result and Both Teams To Score – Chelsea and No @ $2.75