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EPL Tips & Preview – Week 4

Find the back of the net with tips for Week 4 of the 2021-22 EPL campaign, headlined by Leicester City’s home showdown with Manchester City.

EPL Tips – Crystal Palace V Tottenham Hotspur

21:30 (AEST), Sat 11th Sep @ Selhurst Park, London

History: Played 59: Tottenham 32 V Crystal Palace 12 (15 Draws)

Last meeting: March 7, 2021 (EPL): Tottenham 4 d Crystal Palace 1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Final Thoughts: Riding high as the only team to record three wins in the opening three weeks of the EPL season, Tottenham Hotspur head across town to take on a Crystal Palace outfit still searching for its first victory.

Crystal Palace were pumped by Chelsea in Week 1, before playing out a scoreless stalemate with Brentford and twice coming from behind to jag a surprise 2-all draw at West Ham.

Buoyed by Harry Kane’s decision to stick around, Spurs have racked up three straight 1-0 wins over Man City, Wolves and Watford. Son Heung-min has been Tottenham’s goal-scorer in two games.

Palace are winless in their last 12 Premier League clashes with Spurs. The London rivals drew 1-all at Selhurst Park last season, while Gareth Bale and Harry Kane both scored two goals in a 4-1 rout at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

Tottenham are at a generous enough price to back them head-to-head, though a win to nil also provides solid value.

Tip: Tottenham To Win To Nil @ $3.00

EPL Tips – Watford V Wolverhampton Wanderers

00:00 (AEST), Sun 12th Sep @ Vicarage Road, Watford

History: Played 49: Watford 16 V Wolverhampton 15 (18 Draws)

Last meeting: Jan 1, 2020 (EPL): Watford 2 d Wolverhampton 1 at Vicarage Road

Final Thoughts: No shortage of pressure in this one as Watford and Wolverhampton spy an opportunity to edge away from the bottom of the ladder.

Watford have come back to earth since their first-up 3-2 home victory over Aston Villa, going down at Brighton (2-0) and Tottenham (1-0).

Dealt a brutal early draw, Wolves have chalked up three consecutive 1-0 losses to heavyweights, Tottenham and Man United. Their defence has been a silver lining but the club’s familiar lack of scoring threat is shaping as a bugbear once again this season.

The Hornets may be worth a nudge as a $3.25 outsider at home, but there’s a good chance of a scoreless stalemate or one goal being enough to get the three points.

Tip: Total – Under 1.5 @ $2.89

EPL Tips – Brentford V Brighton and Hove Albion

00:00 (AEST), Sun 12th Sep @ Brentford Community Stadium, Brentford

History: Played 74: Brighton 32 V Brentford 28 (14 Draws)

Last meeting: February 5, 2017 (Championship): 3-3 draw at Griffin Park

Final Thoughts: Brentford have enjoyed a fairytale start to their Premier League tenure, going unbeaten in the first three weeks of the season. After a stunning 2-0 upset of Arsenal at home, the Bees have managed draws at Crystal Palace (0-0) and Aston Villa (1-1).

Brighton and Hove Albion will also be satisfied with their early-season form, carving out two vitally important wins over Burnley (2-1) and Watford (2-0) before falling 2-0 to Everton in Week 3. Frenchman Neal Maupay bagged a goal in both of the Seagulls’ wins.

Both teams have shown plenty of moxie so far and this is a tough one to pick – as the near-even head-to-head odds indicate. Expect both to get on the scoresheet at decent odds.

Tip: Both Teams To Score @ $1.98

EPL Tips – Arsenal V Norwich City

00:00 (AEST), Sun 12th Sep @ Emirates Stadium, London

History: Played 60: Arsenal 29 V Norwich 11 (20 Draws)

Last meeting: July 1, 2020 (EPL): Arsenal 4 d Norwich 0 at Emirates Stadium

Final Thoughts: Hapless Arsenal get a gift-wrapped opportunity to kick-start their campaign, hosting one of only two other clubs with three losses against their name.

Mike Arteta’s new-look Gunners are last on the ladder after following up a shock 2-0 loss to Brentford with convincing defeats to heavyweights Chelsea (2-0) and Manchester City (5-0). Compounding matters, Granit Xhaka tested positive for COVID-19 while on international duty.

Norwich have had a similarly tough start, albeit up against much great odds. They have gone down to Liverpool (3-0), Man City (5-1) and Leicester (2-1), showing real fight in the latter to be level with 15 minutes remaining.

Norwich have won just one of their last 20 against Arsenal. Two seasons ago the Canaries managed a 2-all draw at home, but the Gunners romped to a 4-0 victory at the Emirates.

Arsenal’s short price will turn off many punters, but they should find a way to get off the mark at home.

Tip: Half-time/Full-time – Arsenal/Arsenal @ $2.20

EPL Tips – Manchester United V Newcastle United

00:00 (AEST), Sun 12th Sep @ Old Trafford, Manchester

History: Played 171: Man United 89 V Newcastle 43 (39 Draws)

Last meeting: February 21, 2021 (EPL): Man United 3 d Newcastle 1 at Old Trafford

Final Thoughts: Manchester United have been dealt a fairly soft draw to start the season and need as many wins as they can muster after sharing the points with too many ordinary teams last year. They pumped Leeds United 5-1 in Week 1, before drawing 1-all at Southampton and accounting for Wolves 1-0.

Bruno Fernandes bagged a hat-trick against Leeds, while Mason Greenwood has scored in all three games so far. This is United’s first game signing Crisitiano Ronaldo and his likely Old Trafford return is set to dominate this clash.

It’s been a less-than-ideal start for Newcastle, who have just one point after losses to West Ham (4-2) and Villa (2-0), and a draw at home to Southampton (2-2). The Magpies looked to have snatched three points against the Saints before they conceded in the 96th minute.

Man United have won their last three against Newcastle by margins of two goals or more. Last season the Red Devils won 4-1 at St James’ Park and 3-1 at Old Trafford, with Bruno Fernandes and Marcus Rashford scoring in both.

If Man U are switched on, they will win this in a canter.

Tip: Total – Over 3.5 @ $2.12

EPL Tips – Southampton V West Ham United

00:00 (AEST), Sun 12th Sep @ St Mary’s Stadium, Southampton

History: Played 177: West Ham 80 V Southampton 50 (47 Draws)

Last meeting: May 23, 2021 (EPL): West Ham 3 d Southampton 0 at London Stadium

Final Thoughts: West Ham surprisingly arrive in Southampton as only narrow favourites, though the Saints have proved a tough nut to crack at times this season.

Southampton crumbled late in a 3-1 loss to Everton but held Man United to a 1-all draw and grabbed a 2-all result at Newcastle via James Ward-Prowse’s injury-time equaliser.

West Ham remain unbeaten, following up high-scoring wins over Newcastle (4-2) and Leicester (4-1) with a 2-all draw at home to Crystal Palace. They twice gave up a lead against Palace and will be eager to consolidate any advantage against the plucky Saints.

The best Southampton have managed in their last seven matches against West Ham is a scoreless draw at home last season. Hammers carved out a 3-0 late-season victory at London Stadium.

West Ham may have half an eye on next week’s Europa League opener against Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia, but their value is hard to resist against inferior opposition.

Tip: Result – West Ham @ $2.40

EPL Tips – Leicester City V Manchester City

00:00 (AEST), Sun 12th Sep @ King Power Stadium, Leicester

History: Played 123: Man City 62 V Leicester 32 (29 Draws)

Last meeting: August 7, 2021 (Community Shield): Leicester 1 d Man City 0 at Wembley Stadium

Final Thoughts: The biggest game of the week sees Leicester City host the marauding defending champs. It’s been a modest start for Leicester, bookending a dreadful 4-1 loss at West Ham with hard-fought wins over minnows Wolverhampton (1-0) and Norwich (2-1). Jamie Vardy found the back of the net in both of their wins.

Meanwhile, Manchester City reacted to their 1-0 season-opening loss at Tottenham with consecutive 5-0 drubbings of Norwich and Arsenal. Ferran Torres scored twice against the Gunners, with City record nine different goal-scorers across the twin routs.

The Foxes can take some confidence from their 1-0 Community Shield upset of Man City last month.

Last season Leicester pulled off a shock 5-2 early-season victory at Etihad Stadium, but Man City responded with 2-0 road win later in the campaign.

Leicester’s defence has been unconvincing an no team in the league is better at exploiting weakness at the back than Pep Guardiola’s line-up.

Tip: Result and Total – Man City and Over 2.5 @ $2.30

EPL Tips – Chelsea V Aston Villa

23:00 (AEST), Sun 12th Sep @ Stamford Bridge, London

History: Played 157: Chelsea 64 V Aston Villa 58 (35 Draws)

Last meeting: May 23, 2021 (EPL): Aston Villa 2 d Chelsea 1 at Villa Park

Final Thoughts: Chelsea are living up to their status as Man City biggest threat so far this season, following up comfortable wins over Crystal Palace (3-0) and Arsenal (2-0) with a 1-all draw against Liverpool. The Blues looked on track for a valuable win at Anfield after Kai Lavertz opened the scoring, before being forced to hang on with 10 men following Reece James’ contentious red card.

Thomas Tuchel is hopeful of having Romelu Lukaku on deck, despite the striker picking up an injury on international duty.

Meanwhile, Aston Villa have multiple issues ahead of this daunting road trip with Emiliano Martinez and Emiliano Buendia unavailable and Jaden Philogene-Bidace in doubt. It’s been a mixed start to the season for Villa, following up a disappointing 3-2 loss at Watford with a handy 2-0 win over Newcastle and a 1-all draw against new chums Brentford at home. Danny Ings has two goals already for his new club.

Aston Villa earned bragging rights over Chelsea last season. After snapping a six-match losing streak in the rivalry with a 1-all draw at Stamford Bridge, Villa shocked Chelsea 2-1 at home. But they are aiming for their first victory at Stamford Bridge in a decade.

Chelsea have kept eight clean sheets in their last 10 Premier League games at Stamford Bridge and look the goods to hold under-strength Villa scoreless.

Tip: Chelsea To Win To Nil @ $1.88

EPL Tips – Leeds United V Liverpool

01:30 (AEST), Mon 13th Sep @ Elland Road, Leeds

History: Played 119: Liverpool 60 V Leeds 28 (31 Draws)

Last meeting: April 19, 2021 (EPL): 1-1 draw at Elland Road

Final Thoughts: Leeds United are still searching for their first win of the campaign, but they’ll have to overcome some unflattering recent history to pick up three points this weekend. Leeds are on a 10-match winless run against Liverpool. Last season the defending champs got up 4-3 at Anfield but the teams drew 1-all at Elland Road.

Leeds followed up their 5-1 thrashing at the hands of Man United in Week 1 with draws against Everton (2-2) and Burnley (1-1). Patrick Bamford’s first goal of the season in the 86th minute saved Leeds’ blushes against the unfancied Clarets.

Liverpool remain unbeaten, putting away lowly Norwich (3-0) and Burnley (2-0) before drawing 1-all at home to Chelsea, aided by a red card on halftime. Mo Salah and Diogo Jota have both notched two goals so far.

Liverpool are solid value as $1.73 favourites on the road here, with Leeds’ attacking mindset destined to leave too many opportunities for the heavyweights.

Tip: Result and Both Teams To Score – Liverpool and Yes @ $3.00

EPL Tips – Everton V Burnley

05:00 (AEST), Tue 14th Sep @ Goodison Park, Liverpool

History: Played 118: Everton 51 V Burnley 37 (30 Draws)

Last meeting: March 13, 2021 (EPL): Burnley 2 d Everton 1 at Goodison Park

Final Thoughts: Everton have built a solid early foundation, bookending a 2-all draw at Leeds with convincing wins over Southampton at home (3-1) and Brighton away (2-0). Dominic Calvert-Lewin has scored in all three games for the Toffees.

After losses to Brighton (2-1) and Liverpool (2-0) in the opening fortnight, relegation contenders Burnley nabbed their first point in Week 3 via a 1-all draw at home to Leeds. Their Kiwi striker Chris Wood scored the Premier League’s 30,000th goal to open the scoring against Leeds before the Clarets conceded late.

Burnley frustrated Everton last season, holding the Toffees to a 1-all draw at Turf Moor and grabbing a 2-1 upset at Goodison Park.

Everton have looked far too good so far to consider backing anything but a win for the hosts this time, though.

Tip: Result – Everton @ $1.73

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