EPL Tips & Preview – Week 11

Find the back of the net with tips for Week 11 of the 2021-22 EPL campaign, headlined by a massive Manchester derby. 

History: Played 80: Aston Villa 29 V Southampton 28 (23 Draws)

Last meeting: January 30, 2021 (EPL): Aston Villa 1 d Southampton 0 at St Mary’s Stadium

Final Thoughts: Southampton and Aston Villa are separated by just one spot and one point on the EPL ladder, but they are trending in different directions.

Southampton improved to 14th with a 1-0 win at Watford last weekend, following on from their breakthrough victory over Leeds and a draw with Burnley. They leapfrogged Villa, who slumped to their fourth straight defeat – 4-1 home loss to West Ham.

Villa have conceded 19 goals – third-worst in the league – including 12 in four games since upsetting Everton and Man United to nil in back-to-back games.

Southampton won a 4-3 Villa Park thriller last season, but Aston Villa bounced back with a 1-0 victory at St Mary’s Stadium – snapping a nine-match winless streak against the Saints.

Villa have shown little over the past month to inspire any confidence and I’m happy to back Southampton at home, albeit at a short price.

Tip: Result – Southampton @ $2.05

History: Played 185: Man United 77 V Man City 55 (53 Draws)

Last meeting: March 7, 2021 (EPL): Man United 2 d Man City 0 at Etihad Stadium

Final Thoughts: Manchester United stopped the rot in spectacular fashion last week, thrashing Tottenham 3-0 after picking up just one point from their previous four games. Christiano Ronaldo bagged the first goal for the third time in seven games since his return to the club, while Edinson Cavani and Marcus Rashford added their name to the scoresheet in the second half.

But United will start as $4.50 home outsiders in this derby, despite Manchester City’s shock loss last weekend. The defending champs had banked 20 of a possible 24 points in their previous eight games but crashed 2-0 at home to Crystal Palace.

United have had the better of the crosstown rivalry in recent seasons, chalking up three wins and a draw in their last four EPL clashes with City. Last season they played out a scoreless draw at Old Trafford, before United banked a 2-0 upset at Etihad Stadium against the eventual champs.

Though City will be primed for a bounce-back performance, United’s value is well worth considering here – favouritism means little in the battle for Manchester bragging rights.

Tip: Handicap – Man United +1 @ $2.20

History: Played 102: Chelsea 40 V Burnley 38 (24 Draws)

Last meeting: January 31, 2021 (EPL): Chelsea 2 d Burnley 0 at Stamford Bridge

Final Thoughts: Chelsea have moved three points clear of the Premier League field with four straight wins, beating Southampton, Brentford, Norwich and Newcastle by a combined 14-1. But it took the injury-hit Blues a while to warm up at St James’ Park last week, held scoreless for more than an hour before powering to a 3-0 win.

Meanwhile, battling Burnley are coming off their first win of the season – a 3-1 upset of in-form Brentford. Kiwi striker Chris Wood opened the scoring in the fourth minute and the Clarets never looked back, building a three-goal lead by halftime. But they still sit 18th on the ladder.

A draw in the 2018-19 season is the best Burnley have managed in their last seven encounters with Chelsea. Last season the Blues powered to a 3-0 win at Turf Moor and prevailed 2-0 over the Clarets at home.

A similar result looms here, despite Burnley’s confidence-boosting effort last week. Chelsea have kept seven clean sheets already this season, including in their last three games.

Tip: Chelsea To Win To Nil @ $1.85

History: Played 70: Wolverhampton 29 V Crystal Palace 22 (19 Draws)

Last meeting: January 30, 2021 (EPL): Crystal Palace 1 d Wolverhampton 0 at Selhurst Park

Final Thoughts: On the surface, Crystal Palace sitting 13th after 10 rounds points to a rather unremarkable campaign. But they have lost just two games – to Chelsea and Liverpool during the first five weeks of the season – and their two victories have come against Tottenham (3-0) in Week 4 and defending champs Man City (2-0) last weekend. Their list of draws includes clashes with West Ham, Leicester and Arsenal.

Last week’s stunning upset at Etihad Stadium was a clear standout, however.

Wolverhampton are on an unexpected tear of their own, however. After losing four of their first five games, Wolves have surged to seventh with four wins and a draw in their last five games. A dominant first half paved the way to a 2-1 home win over Everton last week.

Last season Wolves chalked up a 2-0 Premier League win and a 1-0 FA Cup victory over Crystal Palace at home, but Palace got up 1-0 at Selhurst Park. Both teams scoring has hit just once in the teams’ last seven encounters.

With both teams on a five-match unbeaten run, it’s hard to make a case for either side coming away empty-handed. But Palace and Wolves have had little trouble finding the back of the net lately and the over shapes as a genuine value play in this one.

Tip: Total – Over 2.5 @ $2.30

History: Played 60: Norwich 27 V Brentford 22 (11 Draws)

Last meeting: March 3, 2021 (Championship): Norwich 1 d Brentford 0 at Carrow Road

Final Thoughts: Brentford will start as a resounding favourite against fellow promotion club Norwich City, despite losing their last three games.

The Bees put in easily their most disappointing performance of an otherwise impressive campaign last week, sliding to 12th with a 3-1 loss to struggling Burnley. It was only the third time they have conceded more than one goal.

Norwich continue to run last, winless with just two scoreless draws to show for their efforts. But the Canaries showed some spirit to bounce back from a 7-0 loss at Chelsea with a 2-1 defeat to Leeds last week, ended a four-game goal drought.

Norwich are unbeaten in their last five against Brentford; the clubs drew 1-all at Brentford while the Canaries prevailed 1-0 at home in last season’s Championship. But the Bees have been the better of the clubs this season by a mile and should get up.

Tip: Result and Total – Brentford and Over 1.5 @ $2.00

History: Played 28: Brighton 12 V Newcastle 9 (7 Draws)

Last meeting: March 20, 2021 (EPL): Brighton 3 d Newcastle 0 at Amex Stadium

Final Thoughts: Eighth-placed Brighton are on a five-match winless run, but they are coming off an impressive 2-all draw at Anfield. Trailing Liverpool 2-0 after 24 minutes, Brighton fought back with goals to Enock Mwepu and Leandro Trossard. The Seagulls still have only two losses against their name this season.

Second-last Newcastle’s arduous campaign continued with a 3-0 home loss to Chelsea last week. The Magpies are yet to win a game, managing just four draws and conceding 23 goals.

Newcastle United have more than just contrasting formlines to overcome in this road trip to Brighton.

The Seagulls are unbeaten in their last eight against the Magpies, who have scored just one goal in that time. Brighton romped to 3-0 victories at home and at Newcastle last season. The gap between the teams this season is significant and the home side should carve out a comfortable victory here.

Tip: Handicap – Brighton -1 @ $2.75

History: Played 182: Tottenham 68 V Everton 57 (57 Draws)

Last meeting: April 16, 2021 (EPL): 2-2 draw at Goodison Park

Final Thoughts: Antonio Conte’s first assignment as Tottenham manager will be at Goodison Park. Spurs pulled the trigger on Nuno Espirito Santo after ugly back-to-back defeats to West Ham (1-0) and Man United (3-0) left the high-profile club with a record of five wins and five losses.

Everton are going through their own slump, slipping to 10th on the ladder with three straight losses to West Ham (1-0), Watford (5-2) and Wolves (2-1). It’s an alarming decline for a side that won four and drew two of their first seven matches.

After going winless in the clubs’ previous 15 games, Everton won 1-0 away and drew 2-all at home against Tottenham during the 2020-21 EPL season, either side of a 5-4 FA Cup victory at Goodison Park.

Neither side is an attractive betting option on recent form. Conte’s arrival will shake things up at Tottenham and we should see an open game against Everton, whose games this season have averaged 3.2 goals.

Tip: Total – Over 2.5 @ $2.03

History: Played 125: Leeds 48 V Leicester 44 (33 Draws)

Last meeting: January 31, 2021 (EPL): Leeds 3 d Leicester 1 at King Power Stadium

Final Thoughts: After a poor start to the season, Leeds United managed two wins and a draw in October. But those victories – against Watford and, last week, Norwich – were far from convincing. One of the league’s more enterprising teams last season, Leeds have scored just 10 goals – better than just two other clubs.

Eleventh-placed Leicester City’s brief revival hit an Arsenal-shaped hurdle last week, following up their first back-to-back wins of the campaign (against Man United and Brentford) with an insipid 2-0 home loss to the Gunners.

Both teams enjoyed big away wins over the other last season. Youri Tielemans notched a brace in Leicester’s 4-1 win at Elland Road, while Leeds surged late to take a 3-1 victory at King Power Stadium.

I’m leaning towards the Foxes here after two wins and a draw in their past four away games.

Tip: Double Chance and Both Teams To Score – Leicester or Draw and Over 2.5 @ $2.10

History: Played 32: Arsenal 18 V Watford 12 (2 Draws)

Last meeting: July 26, 2020 (EPL): Arsenal 3 d Watford 2 at Emirates Stadium

Final Thoughts: Erratic Arsenal have found some genuine momentum and consistency over the past couple of months. After starting the season with three straight losses by a combined 10-0, Mike Arteta’s side has gone unbeaten with five wins and two draws.

Last week’s fast-starting 2-0 away win over Leicester saw the Gunners leap to sixth on the table.

Watford failed to back up their remarkable 5-2 victory at Everton, going down 1-0 at home to Southampton last week – the sixth time the Hornets have been held scoreless this season.

Arsenal are just $1.40 for the win but they are in great form and have a real top-four sniff.

Tip: Arsenal To Win To Nil @ $2.42

History: Played 143: Liverpool 78 V West Ham 28 (37 Draws)

Last meeting: January 31, 2021 (EPL): Liverpool 3 d West Ham 1 at London Stadium

Final Thoughts: Week 11 concludes with a massive top-four showdown, with West Ham chasing four straight wins and Liverpool aiming to bounce back from a disappointing draw.

West Ham are on an impressive march, beating Everton and Tottenham by 1-0 scorelines before thrashing Aston Villa 4-1 last weekend.

Liverpool are yet to lose a game, but they followed up consecutive 5-0 wins over Watford and Man United by coughing up a two-goal lead in a 2-all draw with Brighton.

Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 10 against West Ham, winning eight. Last season the Reds defeated much-improved Hammers 2-1 at Anfield and 3-1 at London Stadium, with Mo Salah scoring three goals across the two victories.

Both teams are on a short turnaround from European competition assignments, with Liverpool getting the extra day’s rest. But the Irons – $4.50 outsiders at home – have shown enough recently to suggest they’ll give the heavyweights a real push in this one.

Tip: Handicap – West Ham +1 @ $2.10