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Round 17 Preview – Can GWS, Cats & Blues hold on?

Richmond Tigers vs Sydney Swans

Team News: Richmond has made five significant changes for the clash, with Jack Ross, Jayden Short, Judson Clarke, Noah Cumberland, and Samson Ryan exiting the team instead of Dion Prestia, Dustin Martin, Jacob Bauer, Maurice Rioli and Sam Banks. The Swans have also made key changes, with Lance Franklin and Tom McCartin returning in place of Aaron Francis and Joel Amartey.

What We Like: Shai Bolton has been one of Richmond’s best in their forward 50, having scored three goals in three of the club’s past four games at the MCG ($4.60). Another Tiger to keep an eye on is Daniel Rioli, who has recorded more than 20 disposals in his last 11 games at the ‘G’ ($1.35).

Final Thoughts: When the Swans play at the MCG, the underdog always seems to get the upper hand, winning six of the seven last night matches. Entering from an emphatic victory against the Eagles and a draw last week against the Cats, expect the Swans to put on a good showing as they aim to improve their goal-kicking.

Best Bet MATCH RESULT - SYDNEY SWANS @$1.96

 

Western Bulldogs vs Collingwood Magpies

Team News: Ed Richards is a slight chance to return but is a 50/50 chance for the Bulldogs. Jordan De Goey (suspension) will return for the Magpies, but Brody Mihocek (hamstring) will exit the team.

What We Like: Collingwood has won 17 of their last 18 in Victoria and is considered the favourite in the game at $1.45. On the player markets, midfielder Jack Macrae has kicked at least a single goal in the Bulldogs’ last four games ($2.50).

Final Thoughts: The Bulldogs have won their last two against the Magpies, but don’t expect them to walk away with the win this week. The Dogs’ midfield will give everything they can, but the Magpies are too strong at the moment in every aspect of the game. Instead of focusing on the result, the line should be focused on instead- a stat that the Magpies have failed to cover in seven of their last eight.

Best Bet LINE - WESTERN BULLDOGS @$1.90

 

Brisbane Lions vs West Coast Eagles

Team News: Brisbane will be forced into three changes, with Callum Ah Chee (concussion), Lincoln McCarthy (suspension) and Josh Dunkley (calf) all unavailable. However, they are likely to regain Dayne Zorko and Jack Gunston. The Eagles welcome back Tim Kelly (illness), and are likely to get Luke Edwards (illness) and Jeremy McGovern back but will lose Jack Darling (shoulder) if he can’t get through training.

What We Like: Despite losing their last 16 away matches, West Coast has managed to cover the line in each of its last eight matches against the Lions ($1.90). An outside shot is Hugh McCluggage to score 3+ goals, a stat he has done in the club’s last two appearances against teams that were at the bottom of the ladder- in this case, the Eagles ($15).

Final Thoughts: After a close loss to the Saints last weekend, the Eagles will come up against the in-form Lions in Brisbane. The Lions will easily get the four points, but a big win is expected, considering their form. Thus, the best bet is to see the Lions emerge victorious by a margin of more than 40+.

Best Bet MARGIN - BRISBANE LIONS @$1.06

 

GWS Giants vs Hawthorn Hawks

Team News: Lachie Whitfield (suspension) will return for GWS, and so will Brent Daniels (hamstring). Jarman Impey, Tyler Brockman and Changkuoth Jiath were all late outs last week and should be considered for a return.

What We Like: The young Hawks team will be looking to find Mitch Lewis in the forward 50 in the clash. Lewis has kicked 2+ goals in his last six ($1.57). Another Hawk to watch is Connor MacDonald. MacDonald is in fine form as of late, kicking a goal in four of his last five games ($1.99).

Final Thoughts: Giants star Toby Greene has been in the form of his life, especially in the forward 50. Green has managed to score at least three goals in the club’s six matches when favourites. Add in there is no James Sicily means Greene is sure to have a field day against the Hawks.

Best Bet TO SCORE 3 OR MORE GOALS - TOBY GREENE @$1.57

 

St Kilda Saints vs Melbourne Demons

Team News: St Kilda is sweating on the availability of Seb Ross (knee) and Bradley Hill (knee), while Josh Battle (concussion) will miss the game. The Demons will probably be without Clayton Oliver (hamstring), who hasn’t played since Round 10, and leading goalkicker Bayley Fritsch will be sidelined too

What We Like: Max King may be the key figure in the Saints forward line, but Dan Butler has been under-rated in recent weeks. Butler has scored 2+ goals in his last six games and is paying a bargain price of $2.25. On the other end, Ben Brown has been a force for the Demons and kicked 3+ goals in his last four against the Saints ($2.60).

Final Thoughts: The Saints have struggled in their forward 50 this season – averaging 79 points per game – and nearly lost to the Eagles last week. The Demons will also be without key player Clayton Oliver, known for setting up the club’s forwards with multiple opportunities. A low-scoring game is expected.

Best Bet TOTAL SCORE - UNDER 159.5 @$1.90

 

Port Adelaide Power vs Gold Coast Suns

Team News: The Power will lose Scott Lycett (knee), with Sam Hayes as an assumed option to return in his place. The Suns will likely receive Touk Miller back which will be a massive inclusion for the side.

What We Like: The Suns are yet to win at Adelaide Oval and have lost their past 13 games against the in-form Power. While Port Adelaide is destined to win, the margin should be between 1-39 ($2.20), as the Suns are sure not to walk away from the fight. Power forward Jeremy Finlayson has scored 4+ goals in three of his past four games when considered favourites and should be an outside bet ($6.25).

Final Thoughts: While all eyes will be on the Power when the two teams go against each other, the best bet of the game is focused on Suns player Jack Lukosius. Lukosius has scored two or more goals in the Suns’ last four night matches and is in incredible form.

Best Bet TO SCORE 2 OR MORE GOALS - JACK LUKOSIUS @$2.40

 

Geelong Cats vs North Melbourne Kangaroos

Team News: The Cats may regain Jeremy Cameron on Sunday, but he will need to be cleared by medical staff later this week. Mark O’Connor is expected to return to celebrate Zach Tuohy breaking the Irish games record. The Kangaroos will put Tom Powell (ankle) and Liam Shiels (calf) through fitness tests, but both are unlikely to feature.

What We Like: A strong Cats attack and poor Roos defence means the game is set for a sizeable total scoreline. Having gone over the line in their (Kangaroos) last seven, expect the very same this week ($1.90). With a big score projected, expect Tom Hawkins to lead the attack with 4+ goals at $3.40.

Final Thoughts: After a disappointing draw against the Swans, the Geelong Cats will be eyeing to make a statement against the Kangaroos. The Kangaroos have lost their past 13 games and are struggling on the defensive end. The last time the two sides met, the Cats defeated North Melbourne by 112 points at GMHBA- expect a margin of above 40+ points.

Best Bet MARGIN - 40+ @$1.57

 

Essendon Bombers vs Adelaide Crows

Team News: The Bombers may make some minor changes but aren’t forced to make any due to injuries or suspension. Whilst the Crows are in the same stance but will have to replace Jordan Butts (concussion). James Borlase is the likely candidate to replace him.

What We Like: Each team could walk away with four points this week in what is set to be an entertaining game. The Crows are $2.04 as underdogs, while the Bombers are $1.81 as favourites. An outside bet to watch is for the game to be a draw at $51. While unlikely, it is not impossible and will come after the Swans and Cats drew last week.

Final Thoughts: In what is set to be the closest game of the round due to both clubs having a record of 8-7, the two teams should not disappoint. Adelaide has lost their last 11 in Victoria and should lose again, however, the game will surely be close.

Best Bet MARGIN - ESSENDON BOMBERS 1-39 @$2.40

 

Fremantle Dockers vs Carlton Blues

Team News: Nathan Fyfe will exit the team due to injury, with Will Brodie pushing to replace him. The Blues are set to put Tom De Koning (knee) and Marc Pittonet (knee) through final fitness tests on Friday and are 50/50 to play. Matt Cottrell will return from suspension.

What We Like: A bet we like for this game is for the Dockers to walk away behind on the scoreline after the first quarter, having lost 17 of their past 19 games’ first quarter ($2). The two clubs should go over the total points line, a market that happened in five of the last six games at Optus Stadium ($1.90).

Final Thoughts: While the Dockers are considered favourites, the Carlton Blues should win. The Blues have won four of their past five against the Dockers and have turned around their season recently, while Fremantle are coming off a tough loss to the Bulldogs last week.

Best Bet MATCH RESULT - CARLTON BLUES @$2.10

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