Brisbane Lions vs Richmond Tigers
Team News: The Brisbane Lions have made one change, with Callum Ah Chee entering the team for Kai Lohmann (omitted). Whilst the Richmond Tigers have made two changes, with Dion Prestia and Maurice Rioli leaving the side for Jacob Hopper and Marlion Pickett.
What We Like: A veteran of the AFL, Jack Riewoldt has kicked 2+ goals in the club’s last ten against the Lions at the Gabba at $1.79. If the Tigers are to win, they will need to rely on their experienced players. On the other side of the field, Joe Daniher has kicked 3+ in his last three against Richmond and is $2.40 to do the same again.
Final Thoughts: Despite being a first-year player, Will Ashcroft has gotten better over time in his first season for the Lions. When at home, he is at his absolute best, recording 26+ disposals in five of the Lions’ last six games at home.
Sydney Swans vs Geelong Cats
Team News: The Swans could potentially have two massive inclusions, with Lance Franklin (knee) and Tom McCartin (concussion) being potential returnees. Patrick Dangerfield will play for the Cats after missing last week, and so is Esava Ratugolea. However, they will be without Jeremy Cameron (concussion)- a major loss for the Geelong Cats.
What We Like: No matter the result of the game, the end result total is set to be close. The Swans are $2.45 for 1-39 on the margin market, while the Cats are $2.45. Also, with the exclusion of Jeremy Cameron, Tom Hawkins is set to make a statement in the forward 50- kicked 2+ goals in Geelong’s last six away matches. He is $1.44 to kick 2+ goals.
Final Thoughts: In what is expected to be the closest game of the round, the Swans and Cats are set to deliver a blockbuster clash at the SCG. After a record-breaking win against West Coast, the Swans are in tremendous form despite being outsiders. Having won three straight against Geelong at the SCG, the Swans should walk away with the four points.
Adelaide Crows vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
Team News: Adelaide will be monitoring the fitness of Nick Murray (hamstring), but if he’s unavailable, James Borlase, Mark Keane, and Ned McHenry are all pushing for selection. Hopefully, the Kangaroos will include a regaining Luke Davies-Uniacke and may decide to select either Darcy Tucker or Tristan Xerri (ankle).
What We Like: Taylor Walker has been incredible when the Crows are considered favourites at home. In the past three matches as favourites, Walkers has kicked 4+ goals at $1.89. The total score should also be looked at, with the Kangaroos’ past six going over the line- $1.90to go over the total score yet again.
Final Thoughts: Despite losing in the last round, Adelaide showed plenty of promise and needs a significant win to improve their percentage. The Kangaroos have also lost its last 13 games away from home against the Crows-having not won in Adelaide since 2003.
Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle Dockers
Team News: Liam Jones and Tim O’Brien are both sidelined for the Bulldogs, with out-of-favour star Ryan Gardner set for a return. The Dockers are set to bring back James Aish (back), who has been dealt with a number of injuries as of late. Captain Alex Pearce (leg) and Matthew Johnson (cork) have both been cleared to play if necessary.
What We Like: Midfielder Jack Macrae has eagerly become one of the best midfielders at the Bulldogs this season and within the competition. Recorded 25+ touches in the club’s last 15 home games, and he is $1.63 to do the same. Another Bulldog to watch is Caleb Daniel. Daniel has scored at least one goal in each of the club’s last five games and is sitting at $1.90.
Final Thoughts: Despite being outsiders, the Fremantle Dockers have won their last four matches when placed up against opponents who were ranked higher than them on the ladder. This included an incredible win against the reigning premiers, the Geelong Cats, a few weeks ago. Yet to sky away from a challenge, a win could send them to solidify a top-eight position.
Gold Coast Suns vs Collingwood Magpies
Team News: Touk Miller is getting close to returning but won’t play this week for the Suns. It’s unlikely they will make any changes after coming off a strong win over the Hawks. Collingwood has plenty of options pushing for selection but isn’t forced into any changes. Ash Johnson (subbed out) may move out of the starting team.
What We Like: The Magpies have won eight of their past nine against the Gold Coast Suns and will likely do it again. Mason Cox has kicked two or more goals in three of the Pies’s last four and is $2.25. Against a lacklustre Suns defence, Brody Mihocek could have a field day and has scored 3+ goals in Collingwood’s five of their past eight games at $2.80.
Final Thoughts: The Collingwood Magpies reclaimed their spot on top of the ladder last week with a record of 12-2. In what will be a tough clash for the Magpies heading up to Queensland in different conditions, expect them to win, but it’s unsure what the margin will be at the end of the game.
Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide Power
Team News: The Bombers are set to be without Sam Draper – once again – and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (abductor). Junior Rioli should resume his place for Essendon, while Xavier Duursma will be tested this week as he seeks to return from a PCL.
What We Like: Essendon Bombers forward Kyle Langford has been the first goal-scored in three of the Bombers’ past four appearances and is at $14.00. While this may be an outside chance, it is more likely that Jason Horne-Francis will be able to register at least one goal in five of the Power’s last six games at $2.05.
Final Thoughts: While the game between the two sides is sure to be a close encounter, the total score should go under the total points line. The main reason for this is how strong the defence of both sides is. Essendon has also gone under the markets in their last five-night matches.
Hawthorn Hawks vs Carlton Blues
Team News: Hawthorn will finally regain Changkuoth Jiath for the first time since Round 9. With no forced exclusions, they could still make some changes, with Josh Ward, Cooper Stephens and Fergus Greene all being possibilities. The Blues could hand Jaxon Binns his AFL debut after Matt Cottrell was handed a one-game suspension. Caleb Marchbank could also make his long-awaited return back to the top flight of footy.
What We Like: Although he has been relatively inconsistent, Harry McKay has scored 2+ goals in each of his last ten games at the MCG and is at $3.90. Blake Acres should also be watched, having kicked at least one goal in Acres’ last four appearances against the Hawks at $1.45.
Final Thoughts: While the Hawthorn Hawks are clear outsiders, the Carlton Blues have struggled as of late, only managing to win one of their past seven matches. An upset will be on the Hawks’ cards this week.
Melbourne Demons vs GWS Giants
Team News: Melbourne confirmed Clayton Oliver (hamstring) will miss the game, while Michael Hibberd (kidney) has also been ruled out. Ben Brown and Josh Schache are options to return back into the team. GWS should be set to regain Jesse Hogan (calf) and Nick Haynes (ankle) but will lose Lachie Whitfield (suspension). Brent Daniels won’t return after still battling a hamstring injury.
What We Like: For some reason, Bayley Fritsch plays his best when competing against the Giants. Fritsch has managed to score three or more goals in his last three against GWS and sits at $2.45. The Demons have also covered the line in each of its five matches when considered favourites in Northern Territory and are at $1.90.
Final Thoughts: While the Giants may not be the favourite for the clash against the Melbourne Demons, the relentless Toby Greene has been in fantastic form. Greene has kicked more than three goals in the Giants’ last three of four games.
West Coast Eagles vs St Kilda Saints
Team News: Jamie Cripps (ankle) will return for the Eagles for his first game since Round 3, but Shannon Hurn (hamstring) is less likely to return. The club will be without Elliot Yeo (hip), Jack Williams (ankle) and Samo Petrevski-Seton (quad). The Saints will regain Seb Ross (managed), who could return, and so could Jack Billings (leg).
What We Like: Tim Kelly, one of the highest-paid players in the AFL, has been one of the few shining lights for the Eagles. Kelly is $1.89 to kick at least a single goal and has done so in the Eagles’ past three games. Against a lacklustre defence, Max King should be able to put on a goal-kicking show. King has kicked over five goals in two of the three past games against West Coast and is sitting at $1.94.
Final Thoughts: Another week, another 40+ loss is inevitable for the West Coast Eagles. Not only have they lost their last 12 by a margin of 40+ points, but they are coming off a record-breaking loss against the Sydney Swans.