The 2023 AFL premiership rolls into Round 6 with a Friday night showdown between the Dockers and Bulldogs and will end with the historic ANZAC Day clash between the Magpies and Bombers.
AFL Tips – Fremantle Dockers vs Western Bulldogs
History: Played 36: Dockers 18 Bulldogs 18
Last meeting: Elimination Final, 2022- Dockers 11.7 (73) def Bulldogs 8.12 (60) at Perth Stadium
Team News: Fremantle will be without forward Sam Switkowski (calf). In his place, Will Brodie is set to earn a promotion from being the Round 5 sub. Nathan O’Driscoll could return and may be used as the substitute after recovering from illness. The Bulldogs will be hoping Alex Keath can be available after he suffered a concussion two weeks ago. Hayden Crozier is another who will be available from injury, whilst Josh Bruce will be out for some time with a rib injury.
What We Like: While the winner may be hard to predict, the scoreline is different. Four of the past five against each other have resulted in a winning margin between 1-39 points. This means the ‘Tri Bet’ is the best option. Either team winning by 24 or less offers a return of $1.75, followed by either team winning by 19 or fewer offers of $2.10 and a margin of 15 or less, paying $2.60. Coming up against his former team, Rory Lobb will be eager to have a blinder. Lobb is paying $2.45 for two or more goals and $6.00 for three or more goals.
Final Thoughts: In what will be a close encounter, both teams have underperformed to begin the season and have plenty to prove this Friday night. The two clubs boast an elite midfield yet have failed to perform in all four quarters. The Dogs have won the past three of five games against the Dockers, but four of these games were decided between 1-39 points. While the winner is 50/50, the best bet available is a tri-bet, with either team winning by 15 or less at $2.55.
Best Bet: Tri Bet- Either Team by 15 or Less @ $2.55
AFL Tips – Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles
History: Played 37: Power 21 Eagles 16
Last meeting: Round 6, 2022- Power 18.9 (117) def Eagles 4.9 (33) at Adelaide Oval
Team News: The Power will be hoping Tom Jonas (knee) can return, whilst Charlie Dixon is also carrying a niggling knee injury but is expected to play. If Jonas is unavailable, Ryan Burton will keep his spot in the team, while Mitch Georgiades is likely to come in for Dixon. With a mounting injury list, the Eagles are set to regain skipper Luke Shuey and ruckman Callum Jamieson. However, Elliot Yeo (abductor) will be out, and Shannon Hurn and Noah Long (hamstring) are also in doubt to play.
What We Like: The Power will enter the game full of confidence after a 14-point victory against the Bulldogs in their hometown. Due to this and the poor form of the Eagles, there are plenty of great bets on offer. Port Adelaide is paying $1.90 at a -48.5 handicap. An interesting bet could be looking at the combination of Tim Kelly gathering 30 touches and Todd Marshall or Charlie Dixon bagging three goals. Kelly/Marshall will pay $4.40, while Kelly/Dixon will pay $4.60.
Final Thoughts: At this point, it is more likely to be struck by lightning than to be beaten by the West Coast Eagles. Mered by injury, the Eagles have conceded 108 (Fremantle), 126 (Melbourne), and 136 (Geelong) points in the past three weeks. With the loss of star Elliot Yeo, Elijah Hewett and youngster Noah Long, expect this trend to continue considering the Power put on 14 goals against them last season. Despite regaining skipper Luke Shuey, a Port Adelaide 40+ win is the best bet at $1.56.
Best Bet: Margin- Port Adelaide 40+ @ $1.56
AFL Tips – GWS Giants vs Brisbane Lions
History: Played 14: Giants 7 Lions 7
Last meeting: Round 18, 2022- Lions 15.9 (99) def Giants 9.5 (59) at Manuka Oval
Team News: Tom Green (suspension) will miss the clash with Harry Perryman and Harry Rowston, the main choices to replace him for the Giants. Brent Daniels is another set to return after being rested. Brisbane isn’t expected to make many changes, although Chris Fagan may decide to re-select key forward Jack Gunston after he was rested last week. Darcy Fort is likely to be dropped after coming in for Gunston.
What We Like:
The Lions enter the game after a 75-point win over the Kangaroos, while the Giants go their first win in four weeks with a narrow two-point victory against the Hawks. The Lions will be heavy favourites, but instead of focusing on the scoreline, the focus should be shifted towards individual performances. For the Giants, all eyes should be on Toby Greene, who has been averaging 16.8 disposals and 2.8 goals. At $2.40, he is a bargain to get 20+ disposals as Manuka is a smaller AFL field meaning a high-paced game. He is also primed to score either two ($1.59) or three ($2.95) goals in the match.
Final Thoughts: Brisbane has been critical with their clearance allowing multiple good opportunities to their forward. Ranked first in the league, it has allowed more one on one battles for the likes of Joe Daniher and Charlie Cameron in the forward 50. An All-Australian, Cameron is having an elite start to the season, kicking 13 goals and averaging 2.6 per game. This includes 10 in the past two weeks; six against Collingwood and four against North Melbourne. Looking to continue his form, it is highly likely he will get another bag of goals. Thus, Charlie Cameron to score 2 or more goals at $1.76 is a must-bet.
Best Bet: To Score 2 or More Goals- Charlie Cameron @ $1.76
AFL Tips – Geelong Cats vs Sydney Swans
History: Played 229: Cats 126 Swans 103
Last meeting: Grand Final, 2022- Cats 20.13 (133) def Swans 8.4 (52) at M.C.G.
Team News: As Tyson Stengle (forearm) and Rhys Stanley (eye) were hospitalised, Chris Scott will be forced to make changes. Gary Rohan will return from suspension, whilst Jed Bews could be available if he passes concussion protocols. The Swans will face a tough test as defending trio Tom McCartin, Paddy McCartin, Dane Rampe, and forward duo Lance Franklin and Joel Amartey will not return. Harry Cunningham and Corey Warner may be dropped, with either Aaron Francis, Lachlan McAndrew, or Ryan Clarke taking their place.
What We Like: The Swans’ injury woes in the defence are great for punters who can take advantage of the Cats’ star forward power. Jeremy Cameron ($1.64) and Tom Hawkins ($2.65) are great shouts for three or more goals, while a returning Gary Rohan ($2.35) and recruit Ollie Henry ($1.85) can manage two or more goals. The Cats are also highly unlikely to lose, especially since they will be home and pay $1.45 to win.
Final Thoughts: Two weeks ago, the Swans would have been slight favourites to get retribution over the Cats in the Grand Final rematch. However, due to multiple injuries to the Sydney backline, they will have a difficult time defending the elite duo of Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron. The latter averages 4.4 goals a game and has been considered an early Coleman and Brownlow favourite. No McCartin brothers or Rampe means Cameron will make easy work of the defence and will be able to put on a show with three or more goals at $1.65.
Best Bet: To Score 3 or More Goals- Jeremy Cameron @ $1.65
AFL Tips – Hawthorn Hawks vs Adelaide Crows
History: Played 46: Hawks 25 Crows 21
Last meeting: Round 17, 2022- Hawks 13.8 (86) def Crows 8.6 (54) at Docklands
Team News: The Hawks could lose All-Australian Chad Wingard (tongue), although the club has yet to rule him out completely. After being removed from the squad last week, Jack Scrimshaw (toe) could be available. Lachie Bramble and Josh Weddle are eager to be re-called after good performances in the VFL. While the Adelaide Crows team may remain unchanged, Sam Berry and Shane McAdam are next in line as possibilities to return back to the side, with Matt Crouch and Jackson Hately behind them.
What We Like: The Crows have been one of the most surprising teams to begin the season and sit in 7th place. Unfortunately, the same can’t be said for the Hawks, who sit in last place. The Crows duo of Taylor Walker ($1.51) and Izak Rankine ($1.60) look good to score a double. Fergus Greene ($2.12) is another who is likely to score two after impressing last week in the Hawks defeat.
Final Thoughts: Although the Hawks sit at the bottom of the AFL ladder, expect them to be competitive for the first half of the game. Boasting a relatively inexperienced and young side, they have tended to be competitive for three quarters before struggling in the fourth. Coming off a great win against Carlton in the Gather Round, Adelaide should make easy work of the Hawks. Although they defeated Carlton by 56 points, their opposition has won seven of the last 10 games in Tasmania. Due to the location of the venue, the best bet is to have Adelaide defeat Hawthorn 1-39 at $2.08.
Best Bet: Margin- Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.08
AFL Tips – Carlton Blues vs St Kilda Saints
History: Played 224: Blues 164 Saints 58 Draw 2
Last meeting: Round 16, 2022- Saints 14.9 (93) def Blues 10.18 (78) at Docklands
Team News: Carlton fans will be hoping Mitch McGovern (calf) can return after being a late withdrawal last weekend. Marc Pittonet (eye) will be available, but Adam Saad (hamstring) won’t be. In his place, the Blues could either select Alex Cicotta or Sam Durdin, who both had 25+ disposals in the VFL. The Saints will welcome back two big inclusions; Jack Steele and Tim Membrery. Anthony Caminiti will miss due to suspension.
What We Like: An easy bet in recent weeks for Blues games would be Charlie Curnow scoring multiple goals; however, this weekend, he will be defended by the skilled Callum Wilkie. This will allow Harry McKay to be the premium go-to player in the forward line. McKay is paying $1.49 (2+) and $2.60 (3+) in the goal-scoring markets. Considering the clash will be heavily contested in the midfield, it is highly likely that either Sam Walsh ($1.64), Patrick Cripps ($2.03), Brad Crouch ($1.81) or Jack Steele ($2.35) will get 30+ disposals if not all of them.
Final Thoughts: Coming off losses to the Adelaide Crows and Collingwood Magpies, both sides will be looking to get back to their winning ways. The addition of Steele and Membrey will give the Saints a huge boost in two essential positions. Despite neither team being considered the favourite, St Kilda at $1.90 to win is the safest bet considering the Blues lost by upwards of 50 points last week.
Best Bet: Match Result- St Kilda @ $1.90
AFL Tips – Gold Coast Suns vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
History: Played 17: Suns 9 Kangaroos 8
Last meeting: Round 23, 2022- Suns 16.18 (114) def Kangaroos 6.11 (47) at Docklands
Team News: Jarrod Witts (soreness) is 50/50 to play for the Suns. Levi Casboult (rested) will be selected, whilst Stuart Dew could pick defender Jy Farrar instead. The Roos will lose co-captain Jy Simpkn (hand), with Hugh Greenwood expected to take his place. Aaron Hall, a previous regular in the side, will be hoping an impressive VFL game last week (37 disposals and a goal) will earn him selection.
What We Like:
The past five games between the two teams have resulted in low-scoring games meaning the result has featured in the under total score of 164.5 ($1.88). Sticking with total points, the Kangaroos have managed to score over +70.5 points ($1.92) in all but one game this season, mainly finishing between the bracket of 76-90 points ($3.75).
Final Thoughts: One man, two words. Touk Miller. The Suns’ captain has been a regular feature on the top of the Suns best-disposal getter. Only averaging 27.6 disposals to begin the season, it has been a slow start for Miller, who is eager to pick up the pace. After only 26 last week, expect him to fire against the Kangaroos and register above 30 at $1.84.
Best Bet: To Get 30 or More Disposals- Touk Miller @ $1.84
AFL Tips – Melbourne Demons vs Richmond Tigers
History: Played 194: Tigers 108 Demons 84 Draw 2
Last meeting: Round 6, 2022- Demons 9.22 (76) def Tigers 8.6 (54) at M.C.G.
Team News: The Demons will have to make at least one change with Charlie Spargo (concussion) ruled out. However, there could receive a big inclusion with Max Gawn a possibility to return after four weeks on the sideline. Jake Lever (ankle), Michael Hibberd (Achilles), and Ben Brown (back) are three more who may return. For the Tigers, Jayden Short will return from calf issues, while there has been speculation Trent Cotchin may be rested for the game.
What We Like: There are many things to like about this game beginning with Clayton Oliver. After being tagged last week, it is rare to see Oliver have two bad performances; that’s why he will get 35+ disposals at $2.08. While the margin is difficult to pick, the total points for Melbourne aren’t. Eager to bounceback 121 points or more ($5.20) and 106-120 points ($4.40) are the best two options.
Final Thoughts: Hopeful of regaining trio Max Gawn, Jake Lever and Ben Brown, it will add to an already formidable Demons line-up. While the Demons allowed Essendon to take 15 marks last weekend, their attack is something that doesn’t need improving. A fast-paced team led by Clayton Oliver, they have scored above 14 goals every week apart from Round 5. Paying $2.02, Melbourne’s Total Goals over 14.5 is a safe and easy bet.
Best Bet: Melbourne Total Goals O/U 14.5- Over +14.5 @ $2.02
AFL Tips – Collingwood Magpies vs Essendon Bombers
History: Played 244: Magpies 134 Bombers 106 Draw 4
Last meeting: Round 19, 2022- Magpies 12.8 (80) def Bombers 11.10 (76) at M.C.G.
Team News: Both teams will be without key midfielders as Taylor Adams and Zach Merrett, who will miss the clash due to suspension. Despite losing Dan McStay (finger) and Nathan Murphy (concussion), the Pies will receive back Jordan De Goey, who missed last week due to gastro. The Bombers are likely to call up Ben Hobbs as Merrett’s replacement after he had 31 disposals in the VFL. While there are injury concerns over Harrison Jones (ankle) and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher (ankle), Sam Weidman is expected to return. Alwyn Davey Jnr may also return after being managed.
What We Like: The ANZAC Day Match always get the best out of Collingwood and Essendon, especially with players unafraid of the big stage. One player set to perform is Nick Daicos. Averaging 36 disposals, he looks good value at $2.15 for 35+ disposals and $4.60 for 40+ disposals. Sticking with the Pies midfield, Jordan De Goey ($2.00) and Tom Mitchell ($1.55) are a good shout to end with 25 or more disposals.
Final Thoughts: Emerging victorious in 13 of their past 14 matches at the MCG, Collingwood is always hard to beat on their home turf. Add in the form of Nick Daicos and the return of Jordan De Goey (who earned two Brownlow votes last ANZAC Day Clash), and their midfield is set to run wild against a depleted Bombers who will miss the composure and skill of Zach Merrett. Whilst the Magpies are almost certain to walk away with the win, expect it to be a close game. As only three of the past 11 ANZAC Day matches have ended with a margin of 40+, the safest bet is Collingwood 1-39 at $2.30.
Best Bet: Margin- Magpies 1-39 @ $2.3o