Tips & Preview- Round 14

The 2023 AFL premiership rolls into Round 14 with a flurry of great blockbuster games, beginning with the Power taking on the Cats on Thursday night and will also include the Lions vs Swans and the Tigers taking on the Saints.

Port Adelaide Power vs Geelong Cats

History: Played 39: Cats 26 Power 12 Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 19, 2022- Cats 16.10 (106) def Power 14.10 (94) at Adelaide Oval

Team News: The Power have decided to make only one change for Thursday night’s game. Ryan Burton will enter for the injured Lachie Jones. This decision also means that the Power has continued to leave out captain Tom Jonas, who will remain in the SANFL. Geelong has made three key changes for the clash, with Max Holmes, Mitch Duncan and Patrick Dangerfield re-entering the team. They will take the place of Mitch Knevitt (omitted), Oisin Mullin (abductor) and veteran Zach Tuohy (managed).

What We Like: In what is expected to be the closest game of the round, the Power are considered favourites, having won 10 on the trot at $1.54. Despite being 3-7 post-bye since 2013 and in poor form, the Cats receive three big inclusions this week and are an outside chance at $2.44. Geelong has managed to cover the line in their last five as underdogs and is paying $1.90 to do the same in what is set to be a close encounter. Surprisingly, Tom Hawkins has made Adelaide Oval his home kicking 4+ in three of his last four games at the venue. Paying $6.25, Hawkins is a good shout to take it to the Power defenders and do the same.

Final Thoughts: If Geelong has any chance of winning against the in-form Power, their star forward duo of Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins will need to have a spectacular performance- Cameron in particular. The ex-Giant has kicked 3+ goals in four of the Cats’ past five interstate games this season. In incredible form, the Cats will have to rely on him for goals, and Cameron is a good shout to kick above three goals on Thursday at $2.70.

Bet Now ON JEREMY CAMERON TO KICK 3 OR MORE GOALS @$2.70

Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans

History: Played 39: Swans 24 Lions 14 Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 7, 2022- Lions 17.11 (113) def Swans 13.11 (89) at SCG

Team News: The Lions are set to regain Dayne Zorko from suspension but will lose Hugh McCluggage (concussion). Chris Fagan may also drop Keidean Coleman for Kai Lohmann after the former was dropped to the sub role. The Swans will add a big addition in Luke Parker, who is back from suspension. While Nick Blakey (foot) may miss the game, however, a decision is yet to be made about his status.

What We Like: If Dayne Zorko is available and fit to return to the squad, he has managed to record at least 20 touches in the club’s last five matches against the Swans at the Gabba. He is paying $1.84 for 20+ and $4.40 for 25+ touches. While small-forward sensation Errol Gulden has been one of the best for the Swans, he has also kicked at least one goal in Sydney’s past four and is at $2.08 to do the same. A midfield-heavy game is expected, and Josh Dunkley ($1.46), Chad Warner ($1.58) and Luke Parker ($1.58) are all good shouts to have 25+ disposals. All three have done it consistently in the past and will be looking to do the same yet again.

Final Thoughts: Brisbane Lions’ small forward Charlie Cameron is one of the best players in the competition currently. Cameron is set for All-Australian status and has delivered week in, week out with multiple goals, marks and disposals. After kicking 2 or more goals in eight of the Lions’ last nine games, it is expected he will do the same this round. However, against a quality side in Sydney, the Lions will need someone to step up, so expect Cameron to at least score three goals at $2.00.

Bet Now ON CHARLIE CAMERON TO KICK 3 OR MORE GOALS @$2.00

GWS Giants vs Fremantle Dockers

History: Played 13: Dockers 8 Giants 5

Last meeting: Round 23, 2022- Dockers 13.11 (89) def Giants 10.9 (69) at Manuka Oval

Team News: The Giants could be set for a trio of inclusions, with Isaac Cumming (calf), Josh Kelly (hamstring) and Sam Taylor (hamstring) all having a chance to play. Brent Daniels (hamstring) and Jacob Wehr (should) could also return, but it is highly unlikely. Daniels will probably remain on the sidelines until after the bye, while Wehr is set to return through the VFL. Fremantle will regain Jaeger O’Meara but will lose James Aish (concussion). The duo are set to be direct switches with one another.

What We Like: Moving away from the team markets, there is plenty to like across the player markets. Beginning with GWS, Toby Greene has been in tremendous form recently, especially when it comes to goal-scoring. The forward has kicked 3+ goals in GWS’s last three games and is $.63 to do the same and $2.60 to kick 4+ goals. Staying with the Giants, veteran midfielder Callan Ward has kicked at least one goal in five of the last six club games at GIANTS Stadium and is $1.99 to become an anytime goalscorer. For the Dockers, the best player market to look at is Jye Amiss, to score 3+ goals at $2.75, Amiss has kicked at least three majors in the Dockers’ last three games in the lead-up to the Giants clash.

Final Thoughts: Despite being the visiting team and outsiders, Fremantle has reclaimed great form in recent weeks, which has seen their record grow to 6-6. Also, the away team has won seven of GWS’s last eight matches. Add in that they have sustained no injuries or suspension apart from James Aish; they should be considered favourites. The Dockers are $2.00 to win the game, and it is by far the best bet of the clash.

Bet Now ON MACTH RESULT - FREMANTLE DOCKERS @$2.00

Richmond Tigers vs St Kida Saints

History: Played 191: Tigers 114 Saints 74 Draw 3

Last meeting: Round 3, 2022- Saints 18.9 (117) def Tigers 13.6 (84) at Docklands

Team News: The Tigers are forced into making two changes with Marlion Pickett (stood down) and Rhyan Mansell (suspension) unavailable. Their likely replacements are Maurice Riloi Junior and Ivan Soldo. The two are currently returning from injuries they had sustained. The Saints will not lose Dan Butler after he was successful at the Tribunal and aren’t expected to make any changes. However, Tim Membrey kicked two goals from 14 disposals and is knocking on the door for a call-up.

What We Like: In a round of close games, this game is expected to be another close one. One team failed to perform at the start of the season and is starting to perform now, while the opposite can be said for the other team. The Tigers are considered favourites at $1.74 but don’t rule out the Saints at $2.10, who are technically the underdogs. Surprisingly, due to the layout of the MCG and how big it is compared to other grounds, the last eight matches at the stadium have gone under the total points match line; one can expect the same at $1.88. Also, Saint Mitchito Owens is a good bet to kick two or more goals at $2.45. The forward has done the same in four of the five last night matches played by the Saints.

Final Thoughts: Saints forward Max King has been in tremendous form as of late. While the Saints started fast, which saw them first on the ladder, they have struggled to put together wins as of late. Sitting at 8-4, the Saints need this win more than the Tigers. If they are to emerge as winners, they will need to rely on some key players to get them over the line- one being Max King. King has managed to secure 4+ goals in three of his last four games with the Saints. At $3.75, he will need to kick at least four – if not more – goals for the Saints to walk away with the four points.

Bet Now ON MAX KING TO KICK 4 OR MORE GOALS @$3.75

Carlton Blues vs Gold Coast Suns

History: Played 16: Blues 9 Suns 7

Last meeting: Round 4, 2022- Suns 13.14 (92) def Blues 8.14 (62) at Carrara

Team News: The Blues should be set to regain George Hewett (concussion) and Marc Pittonet (hand) for Sunday’s game. After no players sustained any injuries, they have been no whispers about who may leave the starting side. The Suns will also regain a couple of players. Sean Lemmens (hamstring) and Mac Andrew (suspension) will be available for selection. Brandon Ellis has also entered the frame after strong performances in the VFL.

What We Like: The Blues are favourites at $1.65 for the clash against the Suns ($2.14), however, the away team should not be underestimated. Forward Harry McKay has struggled with consistency this season but is $1.64 to kick 2+ goals. McKay has done so in each of his last nine at the MCG when the games are played during the day. Also to watch is Matt Rowell. The Sun has managed to find a way to score in the club’s last four appearances and is paying $2.45 as an anytime goalscorer. Another Sun to watch is Jarrod Witts. One of the co-captains of the side, Witts, has kicked 1+ goals in three of his last three encounters against Carlton when paying at the G ($3.10).

Final Thoughts: For this week, the best bet is in a surprising market. Focusing on the first goal-scorer market, there are many players who could be seen as the maiden scorer. However, while Blues forward Harry McKay may be the obvious choice, a Suns forward statistically has a better chance. Levi Casboul has surprisingly been the first goal-scorer in two of the last three matches played by the Gold Coast Suns. Casboult is paying $19.00, which is a bargain price if correct.

Bet Now ON FIRST GOAL SCORER - LEVI CASBOULT @$19.00

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Western Bulldogs

History: Played 166: Bulldogs 84 Kangaroos 79 Draw 3

Last meeting: Round 5, 2022- Bulldogs 21.13 (139) def Kangaroos 11.5 (71) at Docklands

Team News: After not being forced into any changes, the Kangaroos are set to include a trio of injured stars back into the team. Luke Davies-Uniacke (hamstring) and Jy Simpken (concussion) will be available for the game. Whilst Hugh Greenwood suffered a concussion, the club is expecting him to be available too. After making five changes last week, it is unsure if Luke Beveridge will make any changes. With no injuries or suspensions, if he does decide to change things up again, Ryan Gardner, Tim O’Brien, Mitch Hannan, and Caleb Poulter are just a few players who could get a call-up.

What We Like: While the Bulldogs and Kangaroos are yet to face each other this season, Bulldog Cody Weightman could be an outsider to bet on. Weightman has kicked 4+ goals in the Bulldogs’ last two games against the Kangaroos in previous years and is sitting at $7.00 to replicate it this week. A smart bet, on the other hand, is to look at the line market. The Kangaroos have covered the line in its last six at Marvel Stadium and could be set to do it again at $1.90. While ruckman Tim English has easily been one of the best in his positions this season, the tall has kicked at least one goal in his last four games when coming up against a bottom-four side. English is at $1.76 to kick 1 or more goals this weekend.

Final Thoughts: Unfortunately for the Kangaroos, the club has struggled this season which has seen them move to second last on the AFL ladder. Having lost 11 of their past games, the streak is set to extend after this round. The Bulldogs have been up and down, but a good showing could create some confidence within the group. Even though North Melbourne will have some players back from injury, they will be no match for the classy and elite midfield the Bulldogs have at the moment. So expect the Bulldogs to win by 40+ at $2.40.

Bet Now ON MARGIN - WESTERN BULLDOGS 40+ @$2.40