The 2023 AFL premiership rolls into Round 13 and the second week of the bye with a Thursday night showdown between the Swans and Saints and will conclude in a blockbuster showdown at the MCG when the Demons take on the Magpies.

Sydney Swans vs St Kilda

History: Played 222: Swans 140 Saints 79 Draw 3

Last meeting: Round 23, 2022- Swans 13.10 (88) def Saints 11.8 (74) at Docklands

Team News: The Swans and Saints have both made two changes in their starting 22 for their Thursday night game at the SCG. The Swans will lose Laclan McAndrew (omitted) and Luke Parker (suspension), while the Saints will be without Ben Paton (omitted) and Hunter Clark (injured). In their place, Sydney will welcome back Angus Sheldrick and Dane Rample, whereas the Saints will add Marcus Windhager and Mitch Owens to their side.

What We Like: The Swans ($1.59) have won their last eight against the Saints ($2.32) and will be eager to extend their streak. They are also coming off great form with their younger players standing up. One of these younger players is Errol Gulden, who has kicked 1+ goals in the Swans’ last three games ($2.03). Another player who has stood up is Jake Lloyd, who’s recorded 25+ touches in six of the Swans’ last seven games against the Saints ($1.50). In his 350th game, Lance Franklin will be looking to kick a bag of goals and is $2.90 for 3+ goals and $5.00 for 4+ goals.

Final Thoughts: While the whole game is based around Lance ‘Buddy’ Franklin’s AFL game, the match will also mark Chad Warner’s 51st game- a youngster who is expected to be around the Swans for years to come. Warner has kicked multiple goals in the Swans’ last three matches at the SCG in the nighttime, making the club’s home ground his own. He is paying $5.80 to kick 2+ goals on Thursday night.

Best Bet: To Score 2 or More Goals- Chad Warner @ $5.80

Western Bulldogs vs Port Adelaide Power

History: Played 36: Power 20 Bulldogs 16

Last meeting: Round 5, 2023- Power 10.10 (70) def Bulldogs 8.8 (56) at Adelaide Oval

Team News: The Bulldogs will lose Ed Richards, with scans confirming a hamstring strain for the half-back. In Richards’ spot, the Dogs are likely to bring in Caleb Poulter- who they recently picked up in the mid-season draft. After weeks of will he, won’t he return talks, Charlie Dixon could be back for the Power after resuming training. Travis Boak (ribs) is also pushing to make the game on Friday, while skipper Tom Jonas has struggled to earn a re-call after suffering an injury.

What We Like: Port Adelaide’s Zak Butters has been in tremendous form and has had over 25+ disposals in the club’s last nine matches. Butters is a good shout to do the same at $1.33 or record 30+ toches at $1.90. The Power has also managed to cover the line in each of its last eight when playing at Marvel Stadium and is paying $1.90.  In other markets, Marcus Bontempelli for the Dogs has been an anytime goalscorer in his last four against the power at $1.74 but could manage 2+ goals at $5.00. The last bet we like is a very outside chance, and this is Jamarra Ugle-Hagan to kick five or more goals. Whilst unlikely, the forward has done it in the last two games when the club were considered underdogs and is paying a very wealthy $51.00.

Final Thoughts: In what will be one of the blockbuster games of the weekend, the in-form Power will travel down to Victoria to take on the Bulldogs. Going off present form, the Power is the best team currently in the competition, having won nine in a row (a club record). They have also won the past nine games at Marvel Stadium when travelling to the stadium. Although a win can be expected, the Bulldogs are full of surprises and will stay in the contest with their elite midfield. A bet of $2.40 on the margin of 1-39 in favour of Port Adelaide is the best option.

Best Bet: Margin- Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $2.40

Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions

History: Played 37: Hawks 20 Lions 17

Last meeting: Round 10, 2022- Hawks 18.9 (117) def Lions 17.10 (112) at York Park

Team News: The Hawks will regain a big player in skipper James Sicily for Saturday. Whilst not experiencing any injuries or suspension, the club could also bring in a few in-form VFL players, including the likes of Josh Ward, Chad Wingard and Harry Morrison. The Lions will be bolstered by the return of Jack Payne but will have to find a replacement for Dayne Zorko (suspension). In Zorko’s place, the Lions could go with either multiple players, but Deven Robertson and Nakia Cockatoo are the likeliest candidates.

What We Like: Entering back into the side following injury, skipper James Sicily has been one of the Hawks’ best performers this season. After recording 25+ touches in the club’s last seven home games, the same result can be expected at $1.76, and he could go one better with Sicily paying $3.40 for 30+ disposals. On the Lions’ side, Eric Hipwood has been magnificent in the forward 50, scoring two or more goals in the Lions’ last five at the MCG; he is paying $1.89. However, against a team lacking experience, Hipwood should have no trouble bagging 3+ ($3.80) or 4+ ($9.00) goals. If you want to move away from the player markets, Brisbane has gone over the total match points on 13 of the past 14 occasions and is paying $1.88.

Final Thoughts: After losing as a favourite two weekends ago, the Brisbane Lions are looking to get back on track and deliver a decisive victory. A club that has won each of its last ten games after losing as favourites expect no love lost against the Hawks. While the Hawks will put up a fight until the end, their young roster lacks experience and skill in the final quarters. So, expect the Lions to take the four points by a margin of above 40 points at $2.65.

Best Bet: Margin- Brisbane 40+ @ $2.65

Adelaide Crows vs West Coast Eagles

History: Played 53: Eagles 30 Crows 23

Last meeting: Round 21, 2022- Crows 16.6 (102) def Eagles 13.8 (86) at Perth Stadium

Team News: Josh Worrell is likely to return to the squad immediately and will replace the injured Tom Doedee. With no other injuries or suspensions, the club could decide to make changes to some out-of-form players. Liam Duggan (suspension) will be back available, however, there is doubt over Callum Jamieson, Luke Shuey and Greg Clark, who are all pushing for a return. Unfortunately, the team will be without Tom Barrass (hip), Elijah Hewett (concussion), Shannon Hurn (hamstring) and Connor West (knee)

What We Like: The Eagles have lost their last ten matches by a total of more than 40 points, and with a slump of injuries and no returning players, it is very likely this trend will continue against the Crows ($1.33). The travelling Perth team has also failed to cover the line in its last six matches ($1.90). While on the total points market, Adelaide has gone over the total match points on four of the five occasions in the past few weeks. The same result at $1.88 is reasonably expected, considering the lack of defenders West Coast have and the dangerous forward line that the Adelaide Crows possess.

Final Thoughts: Adelaide Crows key forward Taylor Walker is going to have a field day against West Coast this weekend- a team that has lost by 40+ points in ten of their last ten games. The forward has been able to manage three or more goals in each of his last seven appearances when going up against a club at the bottom of the AFL ladder. However, Walker can be expected to go further this week against an inexperienced defence and kick a bag of five goals at $4.40.

Best Bet: To Score 5 or More Goals- Taylor Walker @ $4.40

Fremantle Dockers vs Richmond Tigers

History: Played 40: Tigers 22 Dockers 17 Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 19, 2022- Tigers 7.10 (52) drew with Dockers 7.10 (52) at Docklands

Team News: The Dockers will lose ruckman Sean Darcy through injury. With Darcy out, Luke Jackson will be handed the No.1 ruckman duties, with Josh Treacy backing him up. However, Fremantle is set to bring in Michael Walters (calf), who will bolster their attacking presence. The Tigers are yet to confirm the status of Dylan Grimes (shoulder), although Nick Vlastuin (corked leg) is the perfect replacement for Grimes. Maurice Rioli Jr is also a possible addition if he can recover from a hamstring complaint.

What We Like: As both sides have a strong attack, a high-scoring match is expected, with both teams being provided with strong-attacking forward and star ball-playing midfielders. Richmond has also gone over the total scoreline in nine of their last interstate games ($1.88). On the player markets, Docker Michael Frederick has scored two or more goals in the club’s last four at Optus Stadium ($2.07), while small forward Michael Walters has done the same in Freo’s last eight home games. Walters is currently carrying a calf injury but is expected to return and is providing a bargain price of $1.90 for 2+ goals or 3+ goals at $3.90.

Final Thoughts: After an up-and-down start to the season, the Fremantle Dockers have started to reclaim some great form as of late, winning four of their last four matches- including a win over the Melbourne Demons. On the other hand, the Tigers have been inconsistent throughout the whole season and, despite good performances, have failed to turn them into four-point victories. While this should be a close game, expect the Dockers to nudge out the Tigers by 1-39 points and take home the four points at $2.20.

Best Bet: Margin- Fremantle 1-39 @ $2.20

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs GWS Giants

History: Played 12: Kangaroos 7 Giants 4 Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 13, 2022- Giants 15.12 (102) def Kangaroos 7.11 (53)

Team News: The Kangaroos will be without co-captain Jy Simpken and Hugh Greenwood this round. Both have entered concussion protocols, with Dan Howe, Charlie Lazzaro and Ben Cunnington options to come into the side. Brett Daniels (hamstring) will be a big loss for the Giants, but Nick Haynes (concussion) is a near certainty to return for the visiting Sydney side.

What We Like: North Melbourne has unfortunately lost their last ten matches and only sits with two wins so far in the season. While the GWS Giants are not clear favourites, they are $1.46 on the head-to-head market, while the Kangaroos are $2.74. Looking at the player markets, Bailey Scott has been an anytime goalscorer in each of the Kangaroos’ last three games and is paying a bargain price of $3.10 to do it again. While rookie Harry Sheezel has continued to have great performances in his maiden season. The rookie has recorded 25+ touches in the team’s five of the past six home matches and is $2.25 to do the same and $4.90 for 30+ touches.

Final Thoughts: Moving away from the team markets as the best bet, you should focus on GWS Giants’ key midfielder Toby Greene. Surprisingly, Greene has been the first goalscorer in four of his last eight games when facing an opponent that was ranked lower than the Giants on the ladder. Paying $7.25 is regarded as the best bet and is considered a steal on the market.

Best Bet: First Goal Scorer- Toby Greene @ $7.25

Carlton Blues vs Essendon Bombers

History: Played 251: Blues 127 Bombers 118 Draw 6

Last meeting: Round 13, 2022- Blues 12.8 (80) def Bombers 7.12 (54) at MCG

Team News: The Blues could lose George Hewett (concussion) and Jack Silvagni (hip), with both unexpected to feature against the Bombers. However, they could receive back Marc Pittonet (hand), who is showing positive signs. The Bombers will be hoping Peter Wright can return as Dylan Shiel will miss the game due to injury after being subbed out. Elijah Tsatas and Jake Kelly are both options to return as well.

What We Like: Having lost their last nine games by 1-39 points against teams ranked higher than them, a good shout is to bet against the Blues on the market at $2.35. The Bombers have also covered the line when facing a seven-day turnaround. A weird statistic to have, but the Bombers have done it on seven of their last occasions and are $1.90 to do it again. On the total score market, a huge scoreline is not expected and should remain under the total score of 160.5 points at $1.88.

Final Thoughts: While the Bombers are favourites to defeat Carlton on Sunday night, a close game is expected, with the Blues always seemingly performing well but not being able to get across the line. However, Carlton has lost its last nine matches on the trot against opponents that were ranked higher than them on the ladder. Sitting with seven wins and five losses, the Essendon Bombers are expected to walk away with the four points at $1.85

Best Bet: Match Result- Essendon @ $1.85

Melbourne Demons vs Collingwood Magpies

History: Played 242: Magpies 153 Demons 84 Draw 5

Last meeting: Round 21, 2022- Magpies 15.6 (96) def Demons 13.11 (89)

Team News: The Demons will welcome back elite superstar Clayton Oliver (hamstring) and Michael Hibberd (managed) this week in a direct switch with Jake Bowey (concussion) and James Harmes (suspension), who will exit the side. Craig McRae will have to make at least one change with Jordan De Goey being hit with a suspension. The Pies also have Beau McCreery and Will Hoskin-Elliott in doubt, but there has been no updated news on whether they will play.

What We Like: In recent years, whenever the Demons take on the Magpies, the elite players stand up and deliver. Expect nothing but the same this round. Christian Petracca is $2.10 to get 30+ touches and has done so in Melbourne’s last four at the ‘G’. Returning back to the side, Clayton Oliver has recorded 40+ disposals in his last two against the Magpies and is paying $6.25. For the Magpies, look no further than the Daicos brothers. Josh and Nick have hit great form whenever they come up against good opposition and are sure to record multiple touches. The best option is 30+ for Josh Daicos at $3.25 and 35+ for Nick Daicos at $2.35,

Final Thoughts: In the biggest game of the round, the best bet is to stick with the match result market. Collingwood has won each of its last nine matches in Melbourne this season, but the Demons are not to be counted out. Given the fact they receive midfielder Clayton Oliver and defender Michael Hibberd back, they can cause some damage. Instead of looking at the player markets, the best option is to bet on the match result, with the Magpies paying $1.82.

Best Bet: Match Result- Collingwood @ $1.82