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Round 11 Preview

The 2023 AFL premiership rolls into Round 11 with a Friday night showdown between the Swans and Blues, who both need a win and will include the Tigers vs Power before finishing with the Crows taking on the Lions at the Adelaide Oval.

Sydney Swans vs Carlton Blues

History: Played 232: Blues 131 Swans 95 Draw 6

Last meeting: Round 10, 2022- Blues 15.12 (102) def Swans 13.9 (87) at Docklands

Team News: The Swans may be without two ruckmen, as Peter Ladhams (ankle) will sit on the sidelines, and Tom Hickey (concussion) is 50/50 to return. However, Corey Warner could be recalled into the side after a good showing in the VFL- 26 disposals, one goal. The Blues could be set to make two key changes. George Hewett is likely to return into the starting 22 after being used as a substitute last week, while Tom De Koning pulled off an impressive performance in the VFL to try and be considered for a call-up.

What We Like: Both clubs are paying strong on the match result market, with Calrton at $1.85 to win, while the Swans are considered outsiders at $2.00. In a game where a win is needed for both sides, expect the leaders from the clubs to stand up and deliver good performances. In this case, Patrick Cripps ($1.88) and Luke Parker ($2.65) should deserve a look for anytime goal score. Cripps has kicked 1+ goal in the Blues’ past three against the Swans, while Parker has been able to dominate the Blues in the past, putting up 1+ goal in Sydney’s last six against them.

Final Thoughts: Both teams have been up and down throughout the 2023 season and sit at four wins a piece. However, the statistic that stands out when the two go head-to-head is Carlton’s poor form playing at the SCG. Since 2010, the Blues have lost eight of ten games. Although the Swans are still battling injuries, expect the win to go their way at $2.00.

Best Bet: Match Result- Sydney @ $2.00 

St Kilda Saints vs Hawthorn Hawks

History: Played 161: Saints 82 Hawks 77 Draw 2

Last meeting: Round 20, 2022- Saints 10.15 (75) def Hawks 9.9 (63) at Docklands

Team News: The Saints are only forced into making one change with Mitch Owens (concussion) not being available for selection. The likely suspect to replace him is Jack Bytel or Jack Billings. The former registered 36 disposals in the VFL on Sunday, while the latter is yet to play AFL this season and had 24 disposals. Forward Tim Membrey is also a chance to return after missing last week. The Hawks won’t be forced into any changes but will not get back Chad Wingard (calf) or Changkuoth Jiath (calf). Being managed last week, Harry Morrison should return back into the team.

What We Like: Hawthorns and St Kilda are coming off great outings in Round 10 and are looking to add to their winning tally. Although the Hawks are clear underdogs at $4.30 to win, surprises could happen. Away from the player markets, the Hawks have failed to cover the line in seven of their past eight at Marvel Stadium, meaning a safe bet is looking at the line in favour of the Saints at $1.90. Also, five of the Hawks’ past six games have gone under the total match points line, so look to under the total points of $158.5 at $1.88.

Final Thoughts: Once at the top of the table to begin the season, the Saints currently sit in fifth with three losses, the last being a 52-point loss to the Crows in Round 9. After getting back to form against the Giants last week, expect them to come out swinging and put on a dominant performance against the Hawks. Winning their past five against the Hawks will give them the confidence to beat them by 40+ at $2.60.

Best Bet: Margin- Saints 40+ @ $2.60

Melbourne Demons vs Fremantle Dockers

History: Played 42: Dockers 24 Demons 18

Last meeting: Round 20, 2022- Demons 12.13 (85) def Dockers 5.9 (39) at Perth Stadium

Team News: There is unfortunate news coming from the Demons camp as Clayton Oliver (hamstring) and Lachie Hunter (suspension) will both miss the game against the Dockers. Tom Sparrow will re-enter the team from suspension, while James Jordan or James Harmes should be one of the two players coming into the team for Oliver and Hunter. As there was no WAFL game last weekend, it was hard for reserve-grade players to make their case for this weekend, especially given the Dockers endured no injuries or suspensions. Expect an unchanged team.

What We Like: As Clayton Oliver and Lachie Hunter will sit on the sidelines for the clash against the Dockers, someone will need to stand up in their absence in the midfield. The best option is Jack Viney ($1.59 for 25+ disposals, $2..90 for 30+ disposals), who has had 27+ touches in his last five against Fremantle. Another safe option is Christian Petracca, who has had 30+ touches in the Dees four of their last five at the magical MCG. Petracca is $2.80 to do the same and $4.90 to record five extra disposals for 35+.

Final Thoughts: While the Melbourne Demons are clear favourites to walk away with the win over the Dockers, a high-scoring, free-flowing game is expected with both clubs flush with attacking star power. Add in that the Dockers have gone over the total match points line in their past eight appearances. The same can be expected this weekend at $1.88 to go over 169.5 points.

Best Bet: Total Score (169.5)- Over 169.5 @ $1.88

Geelong Cats vs GWS Giants

History: Played 14: Cats 9 Giants 4 Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 8, 2022- Cats 12.16 (88) def Giants 4.11 (35) at Manuka Oval

Team News: The Cats will undergo a big loss with Max Holmes (knee) being sidelined to the bye. However, skipper Patrick Dangerfield, forward Gary Rohan (hamstring), and defender Sam De Koning (face) are all pushing to be back in time for the game, but their availability is uncertain. Their opposition, the Giants, will have to replace midfielder Josh Kelly (hamstring) due to injury, whilst the duo of Nick Haynes and Harry Himmelberg will also miss the game due to concussion. Adam Kingsley is set to recall Callan Ward back to the starting 22, while he will have a tough decision on who else to call up. Leading the pack is Josh Fahey (43 disposals, 14 marks) and Matt Flynn (21 disposals, 32 hit outs), who dominated the VFL.

What We Like: Although a Geelong Cats victory is inevitable against the Giants, there are many markets that are worthy to look at. The first is at the line. GWS has failed to cover the line in its past nine games against teams ranked in the top eight, and the line for Geelong to cover is at $1.90. Another market is the total score of 174.4 at $1.88, in which the Cats have gone over in six of their past seven at home. On the individual markets, look no further than Toby Greene and Jesse Hogan for GWS and Isaac Smith and Tom Hawkins for Geelong. For each of the players, the safest market is as follows- Greene ($2.95 for 3+ goals), Hogan ($1.79 for 2+ goals), Smith ($1.96 for 1+ goal) and Hawkins ($1.57 for 3+ goals).

Final Thoughts: After struggling in the past couple of weeks, Jeremy Cameron is bound to have a big outing against his former club. Averaging 3.4 goals per game this season, it is highly likely he will add multiple goals to his tally this week. However, instead of betting on how many goals he will score, the best bet is to choose him as the first goal scorer of the game. Cameron has been the first goal scorer in the Cats’ past two games against the Giants and will look to extend it to three in a row at $6.75.

Best Bet: First Goal Scorer- Jeremy Cameron @ $6.75 

Gold Coast Suns vs Western Bulldogs

History: Played 15: Bulldogs 12 Suns 3

Last meeting: Round 10, 2022- Bulldogs 15.16 (106) def Suns 13.9 (87) at Eureka Stadium

Team News: The Suns will go into their clash against the Bulldogs without Sean Lemmens (hamstring). In his place, the club could either go with Lachie Weller, who may return from injury, hometown boy Ben Long or Bodhi Uwland as a straight like-for-like lockdown defender swap. The Bulldogs will need to make a change for the injured Jason Johannisen (hamstring). However, they are set to encounter big gains, with Adam Treloar and Josh Bruce pushing for selection and expected to be selected. Luke Cleary and Mitch Hannan could also be considered after being a part of the extended squad last weekend.

What We Like: Continuing his streak last weekend, Jack Macrae to register 25+ disposals is the safest bet of the round at $1.53. He has done so in his past 18 games when the Dogs are favourites. Another player to look at is Aaron Naughton. Naughton has managed to score 3+ goals in his last six matches as away favourites and is paying a reasonable $2.50. On the line market, the Suns have covered it in four of their past five and should be able to do it again at $1.90. While a smart gamble would be on Suns player Ben Ainsworth. In an interesting statistic, Ainsworth had scored 3+ goals in his last two games against the Bulldogs and is at $11.50 to repeat the effort.

Final Thoughts: The best bet for the clash is to look at tall ruckman and forward Rory Lobb. After slowly adjusting to the Bulldogs’ style of play, Lobb has been a weapon in recent weeks, kicking 2+ goals in three of his last four for the Bulldogs. At $2.30, he is a steal and considered the best bet of the Suns-Bulldogs clash.

Best Bet: To Score 2 or More Goals- Rory Lobb @ $2.30

West Coast Eagles vs Essendon Bombers

History: Played 57: Bombers 30 Eagles 27

Last meeting: Round 15, 2022- Eagles 16.11 (107) def Bombers 14.13 (97) at Perth Stadium

Team News: The Eagles finally have the opportunity where; they are not forced into making any changes to the side. Instead, they could welcome back four key star players back into the team. Tom Barrass and Luke Edwards will be available after missing last week due to illness, while Elliot Yeo and Shannon Hurn could also make an appearance if they pass fitness tests. The Bombers will also not be forced into making any changes. However, Dylan Shiel (calf) and Jayden Laverde (shoulder) are nearing a return and will contest for a spot in the 23-player team.

What We Like: A risky market to gamble on is the first goal scorer, however, if you want to gamble on this market, the best option is Bomber Jake Stringer at $9.50. Stringer has kicked the first goal in Essendon’s past two games against a team that was on the bottom of the ladder. Staying with the player markets, Ben Hobbs has kicked 1+ goals in his last four interstate games and can be expected to continue the streak at $2.40. Also, expect Zach Merrett and Dylan Shiel (if he is selected) to have a field day against the young Eagles midfield. Merrett is $3.20 to have 35+ touches and $7.75 for 40+ touches. Shield, on the other hand, has recorded 26+ touches in five of his last six when the Bombers are favourites and is paying $1.90 for 25_ disposals.

Final Thoughts: The West Coast Eagles are in crisis mode losing multiple players to injuries and poor form. Having lost their past eight matches by a margin of 40+ points, the same can be expected this weekend against the Bombers. In what is not normally a safe bet, this is the safest and easiest market to win at $1.54 due to the club’s terrible run, and the Bombers need to improve their points differential.

Best Bet: Margin- Bombers 40+ @ $1.54

Richmond Tigers vs Port Adelaide Power

History: Played 37: Power 20 Tigers 16 Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 21, 2022- Tigers 16.13 (109) def Power 10.11 (71) at Adelaide Oval

Team News: The Tigers will be hoping Nick Vlastuin (leg) can pass fitness tests in the lead-up to the game. If he can’t be available, Tylar Young is the likely replacement. Jack Riewoldt or Samson Ryan may be managed if they require a break. The Power is sweating on fitness tests from two key players in Todd Marshall and Charlie Dixon (quad). If Marshall doesn’t pass the tests, Ryan Burton is set to come in his place. The Power will also need to replace skipper Tom Jonas due to suspension, with Tom Clurey set to enter the squad.

What We Like: The Tigers ($2.00) and Power ($1.80) are set to tear the house down at the MCG with a blockbuster clash on the cards and either club being able to secure the win. A high-scoring game is expected and is $1.88 to go over the total match points line. The Tigers have gone over the total match points line in 14 of their past 16 games. Another market to look at is the disposals market. Disposals and Tim Taranto go hand in hand, and he will be expected to register either 30+ ($2.05) or 35+ ($4.50) if Richmond is to win.

Final Thoughts: Port Adelaide has won their last seven AFL matches this season and is sitting at $1.80. Expect the same result even though they will be playing away against the Richmond Tigers. Although they will be without Tom Jonas and may lose Todd Marshall and Charlie Dixon, the Tigers are too inconsistent, which is why the match result line is the best bet.

Best Bet: Match Result- Port Adelaide @ $1.80

Collingwood Magpies vs North Melbourne Kangaroos

History: Played 164: Magpies 110 Kangatoos 52 Draw 2

Last meeting: Round 17, 2022- Magpies 13.10 (88) def Kangaroos 12.9 (81) at MCG

Team News: The Magpies endured no injuries or suspensions last week, meaning they could roll out the same team as Round 10. The only change they may make is in regards to Fin Macrae. Macrae is close to returning, has been dominant in the VFL and will definitely be considered. It is a completely different story for the Kangaroos. Liam Shiels (concussion) will miss the game due to protocols, but they could receive Flynn Perez (concussion), Darcy Tucker (hamstring) and Cam Zurhaar (face) back into the team if they pass their fitness tests. Aidan Corr will return back from suspension.

What We Like: In Steele Sidebottom’s 300th game, look no further than the man himself to have a great outing. Sidebottom is $1.60 to get 20+ disposals, $2.80 to get 25+ disposals and $6.00 to register 30+. Unfortunately for Kangaroos fans, it is not going to be an easy game to watch with the Pies midfielders running wild with touches and possession with the ball. The two main players are youngster Nick Daicos and former Hawk Tom Mitchell. Daicos is a steal at $4.20 to end with 40+ disposals, while Mitchell is a bargain at $6.75  to get 35 or more disposals.

Final Thoughts: Although the Kangaroos have lost their past three-day matches at Marvel Stadium by a margin of 1-39 points, don’t expect the same result this weekend. The Magpies are in peak form and sit on top of the table with nine wins and only one loss. With back-to-back games against the Kangaroos and Eagles, it creates the perfect way to improve their for and against. Thus, the Magpies should easily cruise to a 40+ point victory at $1.42.

Best Bet: Margin- Magpies 40+ @ $1.42 

Adelaide Crows vs Brisbane Lions

History: Played 36: Lions 19 Crows 17

Last meeting: Round 9, 2022- Lions 16.6 (102) def Crows 9.12 (66) at Adelaide Oval

Team News: The Crows will need to replace Mitch Hinge (concussion) but will receive back defender Tom Doedee from concussion protocols. After being managed last week, Taylor Walker is a certainty to return, whilst Riley Thilthorpe (knee) could also return to the side. The Lions will also be forced into making a change as Jack Payne (concussion) will be unavailable. In extra good news for the club, Daniel Rich (calf) will return after missing the past three weeks due to injury. With Rich re-entering the team, he could be a direct replacement for Keidean Coleman (glute), who needs to pass a fitness test to play.

What We Like: In what will be a blockbuster clash between the Crows and Lions, expect a high-scoring game that goes above the total match points line of 172.5. As Adelaide has gone over in seven of their past eight at the Adelaide Oval, the odds of $1.88 are a great way to go. On other markets, look no further than a returning Taylor Walker to get the Crows to be the first team to 25 points at $1.98 and 30 points at $2.00. Even though Brisbane are favourites to win, expect the Crows to come out of the blocks early and lead at quarter time at $2.00.

Final Thoughts: Although the game will be played in the Crows’ backyard at the Adelaide Oval, look no further than the match result to not go in their favour. Winning their past seven games in a row, the Lions are on a remarkable winning streak, and it is hard to go past them. Add in that Brisbane will only be forced into one change and will receive veteran Daniel Rich back from injury. They are a safe bet to win the game at $1.72.

Best Bet: Match Result- Brisbane Lions@ $1.72

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