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AFL Tips & Preview- Round 10

The 2023 AFL premiership rolls into Round 10 with a Friday night showdown between the Power and Demons in Adelaide and will finish with the Saints taking on the Giants, with both teams eager for a win.

Port Adelaide Power vs Melbourne Demons

History: Played 38: Power 22 Demons 16

Last meeting: Round 18, 2022- Demons 12.11 (83) def Power 10.9 (69) at Traeger Park

Team News: The biggest news coming out of the Power camp is whether or not Charlie Dixon can overcome a quad strain in time. Todd Marshall (concussion) will miss the game, but Darcy Byrne-Jones (illness) will be reinstated after withdrawing just before tip-off with the Kangaroos. The Demons are forced into two changes, with Tom Sparrow (suspension) and Harrison Petty (foot) being sidelined. Tom McDonald is a likely choice to replace Petty after being named an emergency last week, while Jacob van Rooyen could return to the squad.

What We Like: In one of the games around, Melbourne is a clear favourite at $1.65, although the Power is known for surprising opposing teams, especially at their home ground and is an outside chance at $2.20. If you are interested in the player markets, go no further than Darcy Byrne-Jones at $2.50 and Sam Powell-Pepper at $2.45 to kick 2+ goals. The former has done this in Port’s last three at Adelaide Oval, while the latter has done this three consecutive times before against opponents in the top four. Alex Neal-Bullen is a good shout for the Demons at $1.71 to continue his 10-game streak of kicking a goal.

Final Thoughts: Sitting second on the AFL ladder, a win will guarantee the Demons’ top spot if Collingwood manages to lose against Carlton later in the round. Aiming for their fifth win in a row, it is highly unlikely they lose against the Power, but due to them playing away, the game could be closer than expected. However, the Demons have a 4-2 record at Adelaide Oval in the last three years and have covered the line in three straight games against Port at $1.90.

Best Bet: Line (-6.5)- Melbourne -6.5 @ $1.90 

North Melbourne Kangaroos vs Sydney Swans

History: Played 167: Swans 92 Kangaroos 74 Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 21, 2022- Swans 18.18 (126) def Kangaroos 13.10 (88) def Docklands

Team News: It is not a great week for the Kangaroos as they will be forced into six changes. Aidan Corr (suspension), Luke Davie-Uniacke (hamstring), Jack Mahony (shoulder), Flynn Perez (concussion), Darcy Tucker (hamstring) and Cam Zurhaar (face) are all unavailable. Josh Goater (knee) and Lachie Young (concussion) are also unavailable. The Swans will also lose key players as Callum Mills and Logan McDonald were added to the injury list. The status of Peter Ladhams’s (arm) and Tom McCartin’s (concussion) activeness currently remains unclear.

What We Like: The two clubs will go up against each other at Marvel Stadium, where each of their last five matches has resulted in going under the total match scoreline of 174.5 at $1.88. Continuing his world-class form, it is hard to surpass Swan Errol Gulden to score 1+ goal at $1.53 (kicked 1+ goal in each of Sydney’s last seven games at Marvel) and register 30+ disposals at $2.25. Another Swan, Luke Parker, has also recorded 25+ touches in the Swans’ last three games, expect him to do the same at $1.58.

Final Thoughts: After a disappointing loss at home last round against the Fremantle Dockers, the Swans can be expected to come out firing against the Kangaroos. Despite the loss of Mills and McDonald, their opponents will be without six of their stars and produce one of the youngest teams in the competition. The Swans have won their last 16 at Marvel Stadium. Expect them to produce a big win of above 40+ at $1.95 after their recent poor form.

Best Bet: Margin- Swans 40+ @ $1.95 

Western Bulldogs vs Adelaide Crows

History: Played 48: Bulldogs 26 Crows 22

Last meeting: Round 6, 2022- Crows 8.15 (63) def Bulldogs 9.8 (62) at Eureka Stadium

Team News: The Bulldogs have a few options to consider but aren’t forced into any changes. Josh Bruce is expected to be available. Jordon Sweet (53 hit-outs, 12 disposals) and Tim O’Brien (19 disposals, 12 marks) could also come into contention after great showings in the VFL. The Crows will lose Tom Doedee due to concussion protocols but will regain Nick Murray from concussion protocols. Star midfielder Rory Laird is under an injury cloud after being subbed out but is a near certainty to play. Max Michalanney is also available.

What We Like: Jack Macrae has continued his fantastic form and is an easy bargain at $1.40 to record 25+ touches, extending his streak to 18 games in a row. If he isn’t rested by the Crows, ‘Tex’ Taylor Walker has kicked 3+ goals in five of his last six games for the club and is $2.75 to do the same. Staying at the goal-scoring markets, Aaron Naughton has kicked 3+ in his last nine of 12 for the Dogs and is $2.25 to do the same this week. While Crow Luke Pedlar ($2.70) and Darcy Fogarty ($1.76) are all chance to kick 2+ goals after doing the same in recent times.

Final Thoughts: While the Western Bulldogs are clear favourites to take out the game, one should not underestimate the ability of Adelaide Crows being able to provide upsets away from the Adelaide Oval. Instead of focusing on the head-to-head market, the first quarter head-to-head should be the priority. The Crows have lost the first quarter in each of their last nine games in Victoria and are slow to get out of the gates. Thus, the Bulldogs at $1.66 to win the first quarter is a safe bet.

Best Bet: Quarter Time Leader- Western Bulldogs @ $1.66 

Fremantle Dockers vs Geelong Cats

History: Played 42: Cats 28 Dockers 14

Last meeting: Round 7, 2022- Dockers 10.9 (69) def Cats 10.6 (66) at Kardinia Park

Team News: The Dockers are set to elevate Nat Fyfe from being a substitute this week for the first time this season. As there were no injuries, this means Neil Erasmus becoming the substitute is the most likely outcome. The Cats have also not been struct with injury. Instead, the reigning premiers will regain Brad Close (suspension) and Jack Henry (foot). Oisin Mullin and Jame Willis may get the chance to debut, depending on the way Chris Scott wants to go.

What We Like: Eager to come back from their shock loss against the Richmond Tigers, Geelong has won their last ten following an eight-day turnaround at $1.57. Moving away from the dynamic duo of Cameron and Hawkins this week, two other plays stand ahead of the pack. Isaac Smith (kicked 1+ goal in each of his last three at Optus Stadium) is at $2.45 to score, and Tanner Bruhn (scored a goal in the past three games) is at $1.85 to score anytime during the match.

Final Thoughts: Geelong and Fremantle are coming off last week with different outcomes. The Cats ruined their winning streak, losing to Richmond, while Fremantle beat the Swans in a big away win for the club. The teams are both strong in attack, with the Cats’ forward line consisting of Jeremy Cameron and Tom Hawkins and the Dockers’ last seven games going over the total match points line. Thus, look at going over the total score of 172.5 at $1.85.

Best Bet: Total Score (172.5)- Over 172.5 @ $1.85

Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns

History: Played 23: Lions 17 Suns 6

Last meeting: Round 19, 2022- Lions 16.14 (110) def Suns 14.9 (93)

Team News: Looking to make it seven wins in a row, the Lions had no injuries from their team last week. This means they are unlikely to make any changes. However, Darcy Gardiner, who returned through the VFL last week, may be considered. The Suns will be awaiting on Ben Ainsworth (quad) and Nick Holman (foot) to prove their fitness in the lead-up. If they are omitted, Sam Flanders and Levi Casboult will likely replace the duo.

What We Like: In this Queensland clash, there are many things to be intrigued about. Brisbane is $1.25 to continue their six-game winning streak. Staying at the Lions, the club have covered the line ($1.90) in each of its last six matches. One player who has continually shone for them is rookie Will Ashcroft. He has recorded 26+ disposals in each of the club’s last four games and is $1.95 to get above 25+ yet again. After being subbed out, Dayne Zorko is looking to put on a complete performance and is $1.68 to score a goal anytime. A feat that he has done in nine of the last ten games against the Suns.

Final Thoughts: While the Lions may have won its last eight matchups against the Suns. Gold Coast has always put up a great effort in trying to triumph over its inner-state rivals. With the amount of great offence both teams contribute, won of the wisest bets is to cover the total score category. In their last seven matches against each other, Brisbane and Gold Coast have exceeded the total match points line of 175.5 at $1.88.

Best Bet: Total Score (175.5)- Over 175.5 @ $1.88 

Essendon Bombers vs Richmond Tigers

History: Played 207: Bombers 104 Tigers 99 Draw 4

Last meeting: Round 23, 2022- Tigers 21.15 (141) def Bombers 11.9 (75) at MCG

Team News: The Bombers will regain Jordan Ridley and Jake Kelly from concussions suffered in Round 8. Automatic inclusions on the side, there are no certainties on which players will be omitted upon their return. The Tigers will have a spot up for grabs with the exclusion of Jacob Hopper (calf). On the plus side, Toby Nankervis is set to return from injury and will take over from Ben Miller, partnering up with Samson Ryan.

What We Like: The Richmond-Essendon rivalry has been one way as of late, with the Tigers winning all of their past 13 matchups against each other. They pay $1.59 as favourites, while the Bombers are outsiders at $2.36. Zach Merrett is also a favourite on the player markets, with the Bomber to record 30+ disposals at $1.85. He has done this in his last five games against Richmond. While Jake Stringer is an outside bet to score 4+ goals at $7.50. Stringer has surprisingly kicked four or more in four of his last six home games.

Final Thoughts: While the Richmond Tigers are clear favourites to take away the four points, the Bombers have more wins than them this season and will make for an interesting match. Due to this, a close game is expected on Saturday night at the MCG, with Richmond likely to take the win by 1-39 at $2.25.

Best Bet: Margin- Richmond 1-39 @ $2.25 

Hawthorn Hawks vs West Coast Eagles

History: Played 55: Eagles 30 Hawks 25

Last meeting: Round 18, 2022- Hawks 15.12 (102) def Eagles 12.5 (77) at MCG

Team News: The Hawks have suffered no injuries from last weekend but may welcome back three players who didn’t play last week. Tyler Brockman has served a one-game suspension and may be recalled, and so maybe Ned Reeves (ankle), who was a late withdrawal. Fergus Greene could also return after being dropped. The Eagles may also welcome back several players, the likeliest being Campbell Chesser, Noah Long and Elijah Hewitt. Jack Darling (arm) will be out, but Jamaine Jones (nose) could still remain in the side. Darling’s absence will allow Luke Edwards to step back into the 22.

What We Like: Normally, the two sides are betted against due to their inconsistent form and injury woes. While the Hawks are favourites at $1.31, the Eagles are not to be underestimated at $3.47. Due to the above, both teams have had to rely on players other than their superstars. For the Eagles, Tom Barrass has recorded 17+ disposals in five of seven interstate matches and is $2.65 to record 15+ this week. Dylan Moore has recorded 25+ touches in the last three Hawks games and is $5.25 to do it again.

Final Thoughts: In a match that will see the two bottom teams go head-to-head, expect the club’s veterans to stand above the herd. One, in particular, is Hawks defender James Sicily. Sicily has been extremely reliable at the back of the park for the Hawks but still manages to gain multiple touches during the game. Currently averaging an elite level of 24.2 disposals per game, he has recorded 26+ disposals in his last six home outings for Hawthorn. Set to do it again, Sicily is priced at $1.75 to register 25+ disposals.

Best Bet: To Get 25 or More Disposals- James Sicily @ $1.75

Carlton Blues vs Collingwood Magpies

History: Played 262: Magpies 130 Blues 128 Draw 4

Last meeting: Round 23, 2022- Magpies 11.9 (75) def Blues 10.14 (74) at MCG

Team News: Tom De Koning remained in concussion protocols last week but is set to return. Despite no injuries, the Blues may look to mix it up after losing four of their last five games. Jack Martin may make his long-awaited comeback from injury. The Magpies are hoping to see the return of Darcy Cameron (knee) and will lose no one through injury. Cameron’s inclusion means one of the taller players will make way.

What We Like: The first-place Magpies are on a roll and are paying a steady price of $1.40 to win once again. They have also won 16 of their last 17 at the G. However, Carlton may be an outside chance at $3.00 to produce a miracle upset. Looking to find the right form, forward Harry McKay is in for a massive performance and is $1.90 to score 2+ goals, $ 3.90 to score 3+ goals and $9.75 to score 4+ goals. The same can be said for his partner in crime Charlie Curnow who is $1.16 (2+ goals), $1.63(3+ goals) and $2.60 (4+ goals).

Final Thoughts: After losing four of their last five games, the Blues need to put on a great performance after plenty of media scrutiny during the week. However, they will come up against the first-place Magpies. With this in mind, the best available bet is to cover the line in favour of the underdog at $1.90. In each of their last eight games against one another at the MCG, the underdog has covered the line and is set to do the same on Sunday afternoon.

Best Bet: Line (-17.5)- Carlton 17.5 @ $1.90 

GWS Giants vs St Kilda Saints

History: Played 13: Saints 7 Giants 5 Draw 1

Last meeting: Round 6, 2022- Saints 10.17 (77) def Giants 8.12 (60) at Manuka Oval

Team News: The Giants will welcome back skipper Toby Greene (ankle) this week but will be without defender Isaac Cumming (calf). In his place, Harry Rowston, Kieran Briggs and Wade Derksen are three possible options. Also, Callan Ward is set to regain his spot in the starting team after being the sub. The Saints will also gain a crucial player in Max King. King hasn’t played since undergoing shoulder reconstruction.

What We Like: While this game may look like an easy Saints win on paper at $1.69, the Giants have been great recently and are always strong at their home ground at $2.17. Although they have lost their last 14 against opponents in the top eight. Looking at the player markets, Mitchito Owens (scored 2+ goals in three of the last four for the Saints) is a favourite at $2.12 to kick 2 or more, and Jesse Hogan at $2.90 to record 15+ touches. That is a stat that he achieved in each of his last four games against the Saints.

Final Thoughts: Saints key forward Anthony Caminiti has had a great start to the season, averaging 1.5 goals per game, and even just signed a three-year extension. However, the young 19-year-old has managed to kick 2 goals in his last three AFL appearances. Coming up against GWS this weekend, Caminiti will have to produce a similar performance this Sunday if the Saints are a chance of toppling the Giants. Caminiti is $2.40 to extend his streak to four games in a row; he has scored two or more goals.

Best Bet: To Score 2 or More Goals- Anthony Caminiti @ $2.40 

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