As Carlton parted ways with Brendon Bolton this week after a 1-10 start to the season, is now actually the time to get behind the beleaguered AFL club?
For the second time in two weeks, a caretaker coach has been appointed at AFL level. In appointing David Teague to see out the year as senior coach, Carlton has joined North Melbourne as the other club with an interim bosses at the helm. Early prices with Palmerbet give Teague little chance this weekend. The Blues are currently $2.93 in their home clash against the Lions ($1.41) on Saturday afternoon. And they’re also out in the futures markets. Carlton are now $1.35 in Palmerbet’s ‘least wins 2019’ market.
David Teague may only be 38, but he has been preparing for this position for a long time. It started in the VFL and took him all over the country. Now he is in the main job at Princes Park.https://t.co/CBKVUEG0yL pic.twitter.com/r9ViOwtaYp
— FOX FOOTY (@FOXFOOTY) June 5, 2019
A Shaw thing
Fortunately though, the beleaguered Blues don’t have to look far for inspiration. Last week, North Melbourne similarly decided to part ways with Brad Scott after nine-and-a-half years at the helm. In his place, they announced Rhyce Shaw would fulfil senior coaching duties for more than half the AFL season. Shaw, less than four years since his (playing) retirement at Sydney, was an interesting choice by the Roos. And like Teague, the 37-year-old wasn’t given much chance in his first game in charge. Last Friday night, Shaw’s North Melbourne side started as $3.18 outsiders against Richmond ($1.36) with Palmerbet. But after knocking off the Tigers to the tune of 38 points, Shaw became just the third man to guide his side past a top four team in his first match in charge as caretaker.
— 7AFL (@7AFL) June 2, 2019
But is the ‘new coach bounce’ a thing?
Shaw also became the first caretaker since Mark Harvey in 2013 to guide his side to a win on interim debut. Three others directly before him – Dean Solomon, Matthew Egan and John Barker – all failed. But historically, how successful are caretaker coaches in their first games? Well, the below stats show that since the turn of the century, more coaches fail than not:
Since 2000 23 coaches have taken up a caretaker role at an @AFL club
(ignoring temp fill ins for injuries)
The first games for those 23
14 losses (avg margin -41.6 points)
9 wins (avg margin 45 points)
— Swamp (@sirswampthing) May 31, 2019
Those stats suggest Teague is more likely to fail than not. Oh, and the fact the AFL side he’s inheriting is 1-10 may have a little bit in determining the result on Saturday, too…